Scouting Report: Jets stand as tall challenge in Joe Brady's first game as new Bills offensive coordinator

[HipKat]

When the Bills run

It is time to unleash Josh Allen. The Jets are allowing an average of 30.6 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks – most in the NFL. New offensive coordinator Joe Brady needs to take the shackles off his quarterback and let Josh be Josh. That means reintroducing the threat of Allen running the ball, because it can terrorize opposing defenses. Last season, Allen rushed for three touchdowns in his two games against New York. James Cook played just 48% of the snaps last week following his fumble on the first play, which resulted in a three-series benching. Despite that, Cook ran for 109 yards. Cook is one of just four players in the NFL to have at least 500 rushing yards and 200 receiving yards this season (the others are the 49ers’ Christian McCaffrey, the Jaguars’ Travis Etienne and the Raiders’ Josh Jacobs). The Jets’ run defense has been suspect lately, giving up an average of 145 yards per game over the last three weeks. EDGE: Even.

When the Bills throw

Stefon Diggs will be looking to bounce back from his worst game of the season – just three catches for 34 yards against the Broncos. It will be a challenge, because Jets cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed make up perhaps the best duo in the NFL at the position. In Week 1, the Bills shifted Diggs inside to the slot nearly half the time, likely in an effort to get him away from Gardner and Reed as much as possible. That was under former offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, however, so his usage with Brady calling the plays remains to be seen. Diggs had a good deal of success against Gardner, but the same can’t be said for Gabe Davis. The Bills’ No. 2 receiver has averaged just 2.3 catches per game over his last three games against New York. Since Week 7, Bills rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid is averaging seven catches and 68 receiving yards per game. EDGE: Jets.

When the Jets run

Fueled largely by an 83-yard gain, Breece Hall rushed for a whopping 127 yards on just 10 carries in the season opener for the Jets against the Bills. Hall, however, has struggled to find much success on the ground the last four games, failing to top 50 yards in any of them. Dalvin Cook, James’ older brother, has largely been an afterthought for the Jets, gaining just 147 yards on 47 carries so far this year. Jets quarterback Zach Wilson has decent mobility. He’s gained 184 yards on 29 carries, so the Bills will have to be disciplined in their rush lanes. EDGE: Bills.

When the Jets throw

Wilson has just one touchdown pass in his last five games, but Jets coach Robert Saleh is sticking with him – some would say stubbornly so. Wilson’s No. 1 target is Garrett Wilson, who has 55 catches for 642 yards and two touchdowns this season. Despite getting 45% of the Jets’ targets inside the 10-yard line – tops in the NFL – Wilson has just two touchdown catches. Zach Wilson looks Garrett Wilson’s way a lot – they have averaged 13 targets per game over the last four weeks. The Bills are second in the league with 33 sacks this season. EDGE: Bills.

Coaching

Good luck to Brady. The Bills’ new offensive coordinator is getting thrown to the wolves on a short week, having to prepare for a New York defense that has befuddled the Bills the past couple seasons. Obviously, all eyes will be on the Buffalo offense to see what kind of subtle differences Brady presents as a play caller. Does he put Allen under center more, knowing that has been very successful this season? The Bills are banking on Brady providing a big boost, but this late in the season, it feels like a Hail Mary. EDGE: Jets.

Prediction

Jets 17, Bills 16