Going out on a limb here..

[JS12]

I am going to say we will be 7-1 going into the Bengals game.

We’re all mad right now, but this is a good team and every one of these games are winnable.

The problem comes when we play the Bengals, Chiefs, Eagles, Cowboys, and Chargers. 

We may only win 10-11 games this year, but going into the playoffs we will be as battle tested as this team has ever been. That’s a good thing!

Let everyone write us off for now. It’s better for Josh, he does better in the underdog role.

[Baldat28]

I dunno, I can see it, but I can also easily see 3-4

[JS12]

25 minutes ago, Baldat28 said:

I dunno, I can see it, but I can also easily see 3-4

We have to beat the Fish to get going mentally. Then it’s off to the races.

[miamibillsnut]

if Tua is playing dont see 3-1. 

[JS12]

15 minutes ago, miamibillsnut said:

if Tua is playing dont see 3-1. 

We’re better than the Fish.

Here’s another pick. The Pats beat the Fish this week.

[Victor7]

You all have to go ask Josh man. 

 

If he's gonna go Wentz on us who the fuck knows. If he's gonna be the Josh we all know then by all means a very possible scenario. 

[miamibillsnut]

18 minutes ago, JS12 said:

We’re better than the Fish.

Here’s another pick. The Pats beat the Fish this week.

I think I hope so.   If the Pats beat the fish then they will be an issue too.

Hard to gauge exactly what the Fish are because it's just one game against one team, he chargers but what I saw was a damn track team.    And they made this very sneaky acquisition of Braxton Berrios who will be a gigantic pain in the rear for every opponent.

[TonyasTaters]

2 minutes ago, Victor7 said:

You all have to go ask Josh man. 

 

If he's gonna go Wentz on us who the fuck knows. If he's gonna be the Josh we all know then by all means a very possible scenario. 

This is my biggest concern... Josh being the next Wenz... There is president for this and if I recall Josh was being compared to Wenz at some point when Josh entered the league. I hope I am wrong.

[Thurmal]

Important to remember that Wentz suffered a major injury which through him off stride. Allen has also had a longer run of sustained success. 

[JS12]

Josh is not Wentz. Get that out of your heads. 
 

We’re going on a run here..

[Nuke]

2 hours ago, JS12 said:

We’re better than the Fish.

Here’s another pick. The Pats beat the Fish this week.

Josh is better then Tua. ( maybe not last night, but, most nights) Our TEs are better. Other then that,I’m not seeing a lot of areas that we’re heads and shoulders above them on paper. They are a very good team.

[JS12]

1 hour ago, Nuke said:

Josh is better then Tua. ( maybe not last night, but, most nights) Our TEs are better. Other then that,I’m not seeing a lot of areas that we’re heads and shoulders above them on paper. They are a very good team.

Oh yeah, they are a very good team. I just think we are a bit better. I also think Tua cannot last in this League. Durability is a major concern there, and I think it will be a factor.

[Nuke]

8 minutes ago, JS12 said:

Oh yeah, they are a very good team. I just think we are a bit better. I also think Tua cannot last in this League. Durability is a major concern there, and I think it will be a factor.

I’ll agree with this

[thinwhiteduke]

I have a bunch of jerseys. Don't have a hissy fit. An excuse to wear this one last night.

 

[HipKat]

1 hour ago, thinwhiteduke said:

I have a bunch of jerseys. Don't have a hissy fit. An excuse to wear this one last night.

 

Did anyone ask??

No, they didn't

[seandelevan]

5 hours ago, Victor7 said:

You all have to go ask Josh man. 

 

If he's gonna go Wentz on us who the fuck knows. If he's gonna be the Josh we all know then by all means a very possible scenario. 

If he goes Wentz on us? Lol. If that happens Bills might win 6 games…

[loco71]

8 hours ago, JS12 said:

I am going to say we will be 7-1 going into the Bengals game.

We’re all mad right now, but this is a good team and every one of these games are winnable.

The problem comes when we play the Bengals, Chiefs, Eagles, Cowboys, and Chargers. 

We may only win 10-11 games this year, but going into the playoffs we will be as battle tested as this team has ever been. That’s a good thing!

Let everyone write us off for now. It’s better for Josh, he does better in the underdog role.

Every team we play in that 8 games you mention will most likely run all over our pathetic run D keeping their chains moving and if they can put a little pressure on JA …….. well the OL not gonna bully anyone to help him out 

[JS12]

On 9/12/2023 at 8:12 PM, loco71 said:

Every team we play in that 8 games you mention will most likely run all over our pathetic run D keeping their chains moving and if they can put a little pressure on JA …….. well the OL not gonna bully anyone to help him out 

No. Just watch..

[JoeFerguson]

Bills will be 2-6 before they face the Bengals. 

[StraightJ]

On 9/12/2023 at 4:42 PM, JS12 said:

I am going to say we will be 7-1 going into the Bengals game.

We’re all mad right now, but this is a good team and every one of these games are winnable.

The problem comes when we play the Bengals, Chiefs, Eagles, Cowboys, and Chargers. 

We may only win 10-11 games this year, but going into the playoffs we will be as battle tested as this team has ever been. That’s a good thing!

Let everyone write us off for now. It’s better for Josh, he does better in the underdog role.

I just wanted to give credit to my guy whom I may have seemed a bit harsh on in another post, and go a bit extra and remind folks he had the "run the tables" thread quite a ways out in the past.  I don't recall if anyone else signed onto it, but if so I don't recall any.  Guy has also shown to be good in calling individual bets, including won we both won betting the opposite teams, and were respectful to each other in our shoutbox cheering lol. 

To folks like @Nuke who do have respectable takes. and noting @miamibillsnut's catch, wouldn't you have made a pretty similar statement last season?  Game 1 with the purposeful induction of heat sickness that seemingly had an article written for each game thereafter(the last one I recall was written by the Washington Post maybe 6 weeks later/cooler) still could have been won at the end with an extra 2 seconds, or as my guy @nealpellecchia@yahoo (who\ll likely be pissed at me including his name due to the length) quickly noted, if McKenzie had gone out out bounds. 

Now even before things got Tu(n)a-less, who can forget @seandelevan bragging he was about to take a nap due to how boring their match-up with the Ravens was?  I don't say that just to mock the all-knowing Sean, but to point out the switch for a QB/team is not always in full "on" position.  Even in the greatest post-season game, though I've not re-watched it, I seem to recall both QBs did not have their levels in sustained full on until the final few minutes.

A lot of times teams play in relation to the energy of their opponent.  LAC are a team who according to some have a defensive-minded head coach who has put out a subpar defense(I think a mild summary of what Sean's guy Cowherd said) compared to what would be expected.

 

TL;DR version: Bills(and possibly others)' defense can do a better job than the Chargers' D did that particular game, and OP had the epic "run the tables" thread which seemed to have even less support than this.  Without seeing "those eyes" more consistently in Josh, I'm not sure I could see what 2 members posted, even if The Curse Of The @daryls61 has evolved to more than just injuries to Bills(eg, injury to less mobile Rodgers).

[StraightJ]

Add to that, Josh Allen and HCSM entered last season 9-1 vs the Fins.  Before their perfect storm heat sickness/other injuries narrow loss, their only other loss was also nearly avoided by the heroics of a young Josh Allen.  I still recall a familiy member/non-Bills fan describe this as "harrowing".  (unsure how to embed NFL videos)

https://www.nfl.com/videos/josh-allen-nearly-completes-incredible-hail-mary-287287

 

BTW, not joking, I suddenly have a very runny nose.  This does not happen often to me(was sneezing often a few hours ago).  Does this mean I should quickly get an updated version of the banned cdc PCR test?  Do they still pull the completely needless scraping so close to the brain?  Either let me know via PM or shoutbox, as I have not been reentering threads.

 

[JS12]

One down.

We stomp the Redskins next week..

[StraightJ]

8 hours ago, JS12 said:

One down.

We stomp the Redskins next week..

I thought that would be a lotttt easier than it now appears after seeing the 18 point defecit vs Denver that they changed into an 11 point lead.  That no PI endingafter the Broncos hit an amazing hail Mary and needed a 2 pt convsersion reminded me of the NE/MIA ending later.  The NFL called contact against Denver that continued a drive earlier that quarter that resulted in 7, though there was far less to it than the non-PI call that ended the game.

I suppose one could say the Bills will in a sense have a chance to enact justice upon each of those wrongful endings if they can keep the train rolling that you spoke of last season(isn't that what you called it @JS12?).  Maybe the Bills will become like the Master/Blaster analogy I used from Mad Max: Beyond Thunderdome and used to bring an unholy beatdown of Justice.

For what it's worth, it was also nice to see Russell Wilson no longer reduced to a shell of his former self, as I predicted would be the case the moment HC Nathaniel Hackett was wrongfully terminated to right whatever wrong the NFL had clearly decided was the case last season.  I seriously doubt Russ was acting, and if I can get anyone to start questioning what they witness with their senses, I'll suppose I've had some beneficial effect here.

Go Bills!

(PS OCNH was robbed from going to the Super Bowl with Blake Bleeping Bortles as a QB.....on a wrongly blown whistle vs The Patriots.... so NYJ or not, I currently have good will toward the guy, especially now that he's been robbed of the reunification with Rodgers are a mere 4 plays).  Would I love to see AJ Epenesa(or Kingsley Jonathan for that matter lol) sack Tua repeatedly again?  Of course, but this time would prefer it not end like that one game vs MIA where he came to life before.

[StraightJ]

So I was looking at Super Bowl odds.  Bills are currently 5th and of the other top 8 teams, it looks like they play all but San Francisco in the regular season.  Washington gets little respect on the list despite being 2-0, I'm guessing largely in part to 2 teams in their division being ranked right ahead of the Bills.  Here's one list of may, if any care to have a look.

Looks like San Fran has leapfrogged Philly, and on at least 1 book is tied with KC.  Nick Wrightong must be elated to again have the 2 teams he constantly fluffs at the top.

The Ravens appear to have same odds as the Bills on at least 1 book, but the Fins whom some seem to be promoting are solidly behind both of those teams.

*Also something I noted:  On Sunday Night Football they had a brief segment on a decent # of QBs like JA17 who sought and found redemption after week 1.  I was kind of surprised to see GB lose and Geno reclaim "The Prestige" instead of the "Man In The Box" status (for anyone who was not seen "The Prestige", it is #159 all time on the IMDB top movie list, it's by Christopher Nolan, and somehow having not paid attention to the ending much like with "Man On The Moon" the first time, it too blew me away the next time I saw it and the implication.  Wow.  Unsure how, if at all, it may be related to the Alice In Chains song of the same title of the other outcome, but that added a bit to the mystique for me.  https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0482571/(see this film!!)

On that note, I suppose I can subject myself to some quick abuse and seek out what Nick W and Colin (non-buffalo)herd to see what  SeanD may try to promote.

 

 

 

https://www.scoresandodds.com/nfl/futures

 

 

• NFL Odds
• Splits
• 1H/2H/Q Lines
• Props
• Futures
• Picks

Bet Type Nfl Championship Winner	›	›	›	›	›
Chiefs 1-1-0	+600	+600	+700	+600	+700
49ers 2-0-0	+700	+700	+700	+650	+650
Eagles 2-0-0	+750	+800	+750	+750	+750
Cowboys 2-0-0	+850	+800	+800	+800	+750
Bills 1-1-0	+1000	+900	+1000	+900	+1000
Ravens 2-0-0	+1000	+1200	+1500	+1200	+1600
Dolphins 2-0-0	+1500	+1400	+1400	+1400	+1500
Bengals 0-2-0	+1800	+1800	+1600	+1600	+1600
Browns 1-0-0	+2000	+1800	+1800	+2000	+1800
Lions 1-1-0	+2600	+2200	+1800	+2000	+1700
Jaguars 1-1-0	+2800	+2500	+2800	+2500	+2500
Chargers 0-2-0	+3400	+2800	+2800	+2500	+2500
Saints 1-0-0	+2800	+3000	+3000	+3000	+3000
Falcons 2-0-0	+3300	+4000	+3500	+4000	+5000
Packers 1-1-0	+3500	+3300	+5000	+4000	+5000
Seahawks 1-1-0	+5000	+5000	+4000	+5000	+4000
Steelers 0-1-0	+4600	+6600	+7000	+6000	+7500
Jets 1-1-0	+7000	+8000	+6000	+6600	+7000
Vikings 0-2-0	+5000	+8000	+7000	+6000	+7000
Titans 1-1-0	+5500	+6600	+7000	+6000	+8000
Buccaneers 2-0-0	+7000	+6600	+7000	+6600	+6500
Rams 1-1-0	+8000	+8000	+7000	+7000	+7000
Broncos 0-2-0	+10000	+10000	+7000	+6600	+6500
Commanders 2-0-0	+7500	+8000	+7000	+7000	+7500
Patriots 0-2-0	+9500	+10000	+7000	+7000	+7000
Giants 1-1-0	+9000	+8000	+8000	+8000	+7000
Raiders 1-1-0	+12000	+10000	+8000	+7000	+10000
Panthers 0-1-0	+14000	+15000	+12500	+12000	+10000
Bears 0-2-0	+21000	+15000	+12500	+10000	+15000
Colts 1-1-0	+17000	+15000	+12500	+15000	+13000
Texans 0-2-0	+70000	+50000	+40000	+30000	+30000
Cardinals 0-2-0	+100000	+100000	+30000	+50000	+40000

Searching for Super Bowl odds, have a hunch on a darkhorse NFL MVP candidate, or just want to bet on a division winner? Whatever your NFL futures bet might be, you’ve come to the right place.

What Is An NFL Futures Bet?

A futures bet is a wager that is placed on a future event. Unlike spreads and totals, it might take months to cash out rather than hours or a few days, but it’s worth the wait if your bold prediction comes to fruition.

Unsurprisingly, betting on the Super Bowl winner in advance is the most popular futures bet at online sportsbooks. Patrons can begin wagering on Super Bowl odds for the next season within hours of the Lombardi Trophy being won. Super Bowl odds are available throughout the offseason, and then the regular season, with oddsmakers adjusting prices based on money coming in, news, and game outcomes.

For example, the Buccaneers are among Super Bowl favorites and their current Super Bowl odds (as of Nov. 8) are +600. Using our odds comparison tool, you can quickly find which sportsbook has the best price for all 32 teams. In this case, if you’re betting on the Bucs, you want to sign up and place your wager at Caesars.

Another team of potential interest, especially with online sports betting in Arizona now live, is the Arizona Cardinals +1000. In this case, a $100 bet at will return $1100 — $1000 profit plus the original $100 wagered. And again, using the odds comparison tool we see that Ceasars has the best odds.

Conveniently, new users can get a risk-free bet up to $1,001 by signing up at Ceasars Sportsbook with this link!

NFL Futures Betting Examples

While Super Bowl futures are most popular, they’re only one of the many futures markets NFL bettors can dip their toes into throughout the year.

You can bet on everything from conference and division futures to individual player futures — for example, who will win awards like NFL MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, Rookie of the Year, and Coach of the Year, as well as which player will end the season with the most passing yards, touchdowns, rushing yards, receiving yards, etc.

How To Win Money Betting On Super Bowl and MVP Odds

Because NFL futures are less efficient than game lines, sportsbooks manage their risk by increasing the hold percentage when it comes to Super Bowl odds and other futures markets. Rather than the typical -110 you see alongside game spreads and totals (which comes out to roughly five percent hold) oddsmakers adjust futures prices so that their theoretical hold is often closer to 20 percent.

That may sound like a lot—and it is— but that doesn’t mean futures markets aren’t beatable with the right approach.

Shopping Futures Odds

First, the most important step is shopping odds.

This page does exactly that, pulling odds from multiple sportsbooks and updating them throughout the day, all year long. Instead of logging into each sportsbook account one by one, you can simply come here for a quick, clean view of updated Super Bowl odds, MVP pricing, and more from across the sports betting industry.

There are often discrepancies in odds from one sportsbook to the next. By finding the best price, you drastically decrease the sportsbooks’ theoretical hold. For example, if you were only betting at BetMGM a $100 bet on the Bucs would pay merely $250 in winnings, but since our odds comparisons show you where to find the best odds, you now know you can make the same bet at Caesars or PointsBet and profit $600.

Timing The Market

Secondly, timing is everything.

Betting futures at sportsbooks is a lot like buying and selling shares of companies on the stock market. Odds fluctuate throughout the season and it’s better to be early than late. Just look at the Dallas Cowboys who started the season +3500 to win the Super Bowl. They’re 6-2 through eight weeks and are only +1200.

In hindsight, there were some good read reasons to bet on the Cowboys before the season began: 1) Playing a weak division meant they had a fairly easy road to the playoffs, 2) They returned their starting quarterback, Dak Prescott, from injury, 3) Used offseason capital on defense and brought in a new defensive coordinator.

There was a lot unknown about the Cowboys, but that wasn’t necessarily a bad thing since they entered the season with lengthy odds.

The Cowboys are still unlikely to pull off the tall feat, but there is a lesson here: Try to find teams or players to bet on whose current odds are more likely to get shorter than longer.

That’s easier said than done, of course. So before placing a bet you should be able to paint a plausible narrative of the team/player exceeding expectations and ultimately completing the task at hand.

Conversely, the Kansas City Chiefs opened as favorites to win the 2022 Super Bowl. Hindsight is 20/20, but at +550, their odds were unlikely to get much shorter than they already were. Fast forward to Week 10 and the Chiefs are +1200. If you’re still interested in backing the defending AFC Championship, you can get much better odds than were available at the start of the season.

Value On Super Bowl Longshots?

Ahead of the 2019 NFL season, the San Francisco 49ers were between +4000 and +5000 to win the Super Bowl, as were the Baltimore Ravens. In 2018, Mahomes’ first year as a starter in Kansas City, the Chiefs were roughly +4000. In 2017, the Philadelphia Eagles were as long as +6000 in the offseason before making their miraculous Super Bowl run with Nick Foles at the helm. Clearly bettors can find value for teams that are farther down the betting board before each NFL season kicks off in September.

With all of that said, let’s now take a look at historic MVP, Rookie of the Year, and Coach of the Year winners as we search for some notable futures betting trends. Hopefully these tips can help guide you to some winning futures tickets.

NFL MVP Winners

Year	Position	Player	MVP Odds (Open)	Team (Record)
2020	QB	Aaron Rodgers	+2500	Packers (13-3)
2019	QB	Lamar Jackson	+12500	Ravens (14-2)
2018	QB	Patrick Mahomes	+5000	Chiefs (12-4)
2017	QB	Tom Brady	+400	Patriots (13-3)
2016	QB	Matt Ryan	+7500	Falcons (11-5)
2015	QB	Cam Newton	+5000	Panthers (15-1)
2014	QB	Aaron Rodgers	+600	Packers (12-4)
2013	QB	Peyton Manning	+600	Broncos (13-3)
2012	RB	Adrian Peterson	+4000	Vikings (10-6)
2011	QB	Aaron Rodgers	+400	Packers (15-1)
2010	QB	Tom Brady	+800	Patriots (14-2)
2009	QB	Peyton Manning	+500	Colts (14-2)
2008	QB	Peyton Manning	+2000	Colts (12-4)
2007	QB	Tom Brady	N/A	Patriots (16-0)
2006	QB	LaDanian Tomlinson	N/A	Chargers (14-2)
2005	RB	Shaun Alexander	N/A	Seahawks (13-3)
2004	QB	Peyton Manning	N/A	Colts (12-4)
2003	QB	Peyton Manning/Steve McNair	N/A	Colts/Titans (12-4)
2002	QB	Rich Gannon	N/A	Raiders (11-5)
2001	QB	Kurt Warner	N/A	Rams (14-2)
2000	RB	Marshall Faulk	N/A	Rams (10-6)

NFL MVP Betting Trends

Looking at past NFL MVP winners illuminates historic betting trends to consider while perusing MVP odds at sportsbooks:

• 54 of 57 NFL MVPs have played an offensive position
• Quarterbacks have won the award 38 times, running backs 16 times, while there have been two defensive winners, and one placekicker
• During the 2020 season, Aaron Rodgers became the eighth-consecutive QB to win MVP
• The last running back to win was Adrian Peterson in 2012
• Linebacker Lawrence Taylor was the last defensive player to win the award (’86)
• No wide receiver has ever been named MVP
• Since 2001, only one winner has played on a team with fewer than 11 wins

In short, bet on quarterbacks. Don’t waste money on receivers, running backs, or defensive players. Invest in players who play on teams that have a plausible road to success (11 or more wins). And similar to betting on the Super Bowl, there has been plenty of value on longshots in recent years.

Coach Of The Year Betting Trends

• Joe Gibbs was the last back-to-back COY winner in 1982 and 1983
• Since 2009, the award has gone to coaches whose teams win on average 5.9 games more than they did the previous season
• On that same note, the median improvement for these teams has been +7 wins
• Five of the last 10 Coach of the Year winners have been in their first year with a new team
• Eight of the last 10 Coach of the Year awards went to division winners; the other two went to coaches of wild-card teams

Avoid coaches who won the previous season as they do appear to be victims of voter fatigue. Instead, find coaches who are in their first year with a new team, which often means there’s plenty of room for improvement (roughly six wins worth), and have a reasonable shot at winning their division or at the very least making the playoffs.

 

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[JS12]

8 hours ago, StraightJ said:

I thought that would be a lotttt easier than it now appears after seeing the 18 point defecit vs Denver that they changed into an 11 point lead.  That no PI endingafter the Broncos hit an amazing hail Mary and needed a 2 pt convsersion reminded me of the NE/MIA ending later.  The NFL called contact against Denver that continued a drive earlier that quarter that resulted in 7, though there was far less to it than the non-PI call that ended the game.

I suppose one could say the Bills will in a sense have a chance to enact justice upon each of those wrongful endings if they can keep the train rolling that you spoke of last season(isn't that what you called it @JS12?).  Maybe the Bills will become like the Master/Blaster analogy I used from Mad Max: Beyond Thunderdome and used to bring an unholy beatdown of Justice.

For what it's worth, it was also nice to see Russell Wilson no longer reduced to a shell of his former self, as I predicted would be the case the moment HC Nathaniel Hackett was wrongfully terminated to right whatever wrong the NFL had clearly decided was the case last season.  I seriously doubt Russ was acting, and if I can get anyone to start questioning what they witness with their senses, I'll suppose I've had some beneficial effect here.

Go Bills!

(PS OCNH was robbed from going to the Super Bowl with Blake Bleeping Bortles as a QB.....on a wrongly blown whistle vs The Patriots.... so NYJ or not, I currently have good will toward the guy, especially now that he's been robbed of the reunification with Rodgers are a mere 4 plays).  Would I love to see AJ Epenesa(or Kingsley Jonathan for that matter lol) sack Tua repeatedly again?  Of course, but this time would prefer it not end like that one game vs MIA where he came to life before.

I still think we stomp them. Don’t think they are very good at all.

As for Super Bowl odds, I think the Bills are a GREAT value at 10-1 right now. I have quite a few beans riding on them already.