NHL offseason trade board: What we’re hearing about Jets stars, Leafs’ Core 4 and other targets

[Buddy]

NHL offseason trade board: What we’re hearing about Jets stars, Leafs’ Core 4 and other targets

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[HipKat]

 

As the Maple Leafs begin their postseason autopsy following their second-round loss to the Panthers and determine the future of their Core Four, another Canadian team has already been at it for weeks, trying to figure out how to handle the future of its own Big Four.

This could be a summer of upheaval in Winnipeg, which is why the first edition of The Athletic’s offseason trade board needs to be heavy on the Jets.

General manager Kevin Cheveldayoff and coach Rick Bowness will be back, but what about Blake Wheeler, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck? All four could become unrestricted free agents in the summer of 2024, with Dubois also in need of a new contract now as a restricted free agent with arbitration rights.

Cheveldayoff will have a better idea of a plan once he holds his pro and amateur meetings over the next few weeks, but you can bet he has begun the process of reaching out to key players like Hellebuyck and Scheifele to ascertain their interest in signing long-term extensions.

“My priority is to take a step back and assess everything,” Cheveldayoff said in his end-of-the-season news conference. “We had conversations, obviously, individually with all the players and certainly those players involved. I have not had any conversations with any of their representatives yet. All the guys, they wanted to talk about the year, they wanted to talk about the series. They wanted to talk about the appreciation of how good this group was together and how they enjoyed that opportunity to play together.

“We’re not sitting here waving any banners or anything like that. That’s unfortunate. But there’s a lot of good people in that room that pushed this organization to a good place.”

Chances are, not all of those people will push the Jets where they go next, though.

The common thinking at this point is that Wheeler will be gone, and he’d probably be fine with that at this point. He has another year left on his contract at $8.25 million. It’ll be hard to move him at age 36 without retaining a large chunk of the deal, but he had his captaincy stripped in September and was honest in his end-of-the-year interview, saying that he didn’t think it was appropriate for Bowness to criticize the core and the team’s lack of pushback so emotionally after being eliminated by Vegas.

The next possible departure would be Dubois. This is the summer each side needs to decide if they want to commit to each other long-term. It is widely believed Dubois has a strong interest in playing for Montreal.

The most pressing matters revolve around Hellebuyck and Scheifele, who come in at Nos. 1 and 2 on our first edition of the offseason trade board.

Hellebuyck is one of the NHL’s few true No. 1, workhorse goaltenders. He won the Vezina in 2020 and is a finalist again. How much is he going to want on a long-term deal? Currently making $6.16 million, he could command $9 million-plus on the open market. Can the Jets stomach that?

If he becomes available, don’t be surprised if Buffalo and New Jersey take big swings.

One thing we’ve heard early this offseason is that the Sabres have interest in Hellebuyck, with the belief that a genuine No. 1 goaltender could be the last remaining piece in turning them into contenders. Getting one would also allow them to hold off on turning the reins over to Devon Levi until he’s proven to be NHL-ready.

The Jets would want young team-controlled assets in exchange, and the Sabres have plenty of those — from a youngish goaltender in Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen to promising talents like Peyton Krebs and even Casey Mittelstadt.

Scheifele, meanwhile, can be a lightning rod for criticism, but he’s a true No. 1 center and is coming off a season in which he scored a career-high 42 goals. It sure feels like this could be the summer these two sides head for a divorce. If so, there should be no shortage of suitors, especially if the Jets let teams talk extension with him.

Regardless, buckle up, because this should be a headline-rattling offseason in the PEG.

“You know what, I’m not going to get into individual situations or circumstances with any of the players,” Cheveldayoff said after the Jets’ season ended. “I don’t think that’s productive. Certainly a couple days after the raw emotion of a game, I’ve got emotions as well, too. It’s one of those things where I have to process my own emotions, as well, and make sure if I am making the decisions, I am making them rationally and not from a knee jerk.

“The business side takes care of itself, but from a perspective of concrete plans and stuff like that, it’s really not the time to really get into.”

All eyes on the Maple Leafs’ Core Four

It’s going to be fascinating to see what happens next in Toronto after the Leafs exorcized their first-round demons but didn’t come close to doing the same with their playoff demons, winning five playoff games — and only one at home.

Do the Leafs roll it back? Or do they eat into their core of Auston Matthews and William Nylander, who are extension-eligible July 1, and Mitch Marner and John Tavares?

First things first: The Maple Leafs must immediately decide the futures of team president Brendan Shanahan and GM Kyle Dubas, then of coach Sheldon Keefe. Until that’s ironed out, there’s no use speculating on whether one — or more — of the core players will be shipped out.

Once the coaching and management decisions are made, Priority No. 1 is Matthews, the 2021-22 Hart Trophy winner and 60-goal scorer. His full no-move clause kicks in July 1 — and that’s also the day he’s eligible to sign an extension. If he declines to commit to the Leafs long-term, all bets are off as to how the Maple Leafs proceed. Letting Matthews play out the final year of his contract could be disastrous.

One option would be to sign him to another medium-term deal, say four or five years. If that happens, though, get ready for four or five years of rumors that he’s setting himself up to end up in his home state of Arizona conveniently right when a new arena is slated to open.

Marner, too, has a no-move clause kicking in July 1, which takes him to possible free agency in 2025. Tavares, 32, has two years left on his $11 million annual contract with a full no-move.

If the Leafs had a magic wand, you know they’d make that Tavares contract disappear. Because they can’t, Nylander, a year from free agency, is the likeliest to go. He’s just easier to move, at basically half the price of the others. Nylander, who ranks No. 3 on the trade board, has a 10-team no-trade clause that kicks in July 1, which means a trade around the draft, June 28 and 29, is possible.

Expect the Kings to make some noise

The Kings plan to have their top prospect, Brandt Clarke, in the lineup as an everyday player next season, as well as first-rounder Tobias Bjornfot, who would have to clear waivers to be sent to the minors next in 2023-24 — something that they’re not prepared to risk.

Also: The expectation is they’re closing in on a contract extension with soon-to-be-unrestricted free agent Vladislav Gavrikov. Assuming Gavrikov signs, it means that at least two regulars on the blue line, Sean Walker and Sean Durzi, could be trade bait. The pair start the offseason at Nos. 29 and 30 on the trade board.

Durzi, 24, anchored the second power-play unit for the Kings, can play both the left and the right side and is attractive as a cost-controlled option (signed for $1.7 million next season, after which he becomes a restricted free agent). Walker is older, 28, but he also can play both sides, makes a modest salary ($2.65 million) and showed he was healthy again, playing 70 regular-season games after having major knee surgery a year ago.

The larger question for the Kings is what to do in goal. If they get priced out of retaining pending UFA Joonas Korpisalo, their top two netminding options are Pheonix Copley, who had a quality season after getting promoted from the minors, and Cal Petersen, who was sent to the minors after a dismal year, though he’s being paid like an NHL No. 1 (two more years at $5 million annually). The Kings would have to pay a heavy premium to unload Petersen’s contract, and if they can’t, it’s a lot of hoping and praying that he can rediscover his NHL form.

A long rebuild makes Gibson a candidate

The key figure in Anaheim is goalie John Gibson, who we have as the No. 6 buzziest trade candidate coming into the offseason.

The Ducks are in the early stages of a rebuild. Gibson is 29. The feeling is that he would be amenable to a move to a contender because the Ducks are not going to be a playoff team for years to come. His contract is reasonable — $6.4 million for four more years — if you believe that playing behind a team with better overall defense means he’d still be a top-10 NHL goalie.

Gibson has a 10-team no-trade list; the suspicion, though, is that his preference would be one of three: Pittsburgh, Vegas or Los Angeles.

The Ducks also have two veteran forwards, Adam Henrique and Jakob Silfverberg, heading into the final years of their contracts, at $5.85 million and $5 million respectively. But the feeling is their value would likely be highest at the 2024 trade deadline, once the dollars on those contracts tick off. The expectation is they’ll be back with the Ducks for the start of the year and then will be traded as rentals in the spring if the team is, as expected, out of playoff contention.

The Ducks have a glaring need to bolster their defense corps. After Cam Fowler and Jamie Drysdale, who returns after missing most of the season recovering from shoulder surgery, they have only Colin White and a collection of not-ready-for-prime-time youngsters available to play next year. It means pending UFAs Scott Harrington and Kevin Shattenkirk could return, but the team also needs to acquire stop-gap blue-line help until the likes of Jackson LaCombe and Olen Zellweger are NHL-ready. Max Comtois almost certainly will be moved if the Ducks get a half-decent offer for a player who clearly needs a fresh start.

Flames decisions on hold

The Flames are in a muddle right now, with new president of hockey operations Don Maloney interviewing candidates for the vacant general manager’s position, which will then influence what direction they go when hiring a coach to replace Darryl Sutter.

All of which that any talk of possibly trading the three core players (Mikael Backlund, Elias Lindholm and Noah Hanifin, whose contracts expire in July 2024) is on hold. None of them were prepared to commit to staying long-term in exit interviews, but that was when it looked as if Sutter would return as coach. A more player-friendly voice behind the bench and an early-season turnaround might convince them to sign extensions.

If that doesn’t happen and the Flames flounder, they might need to get what value they can at the trade deadline. It’s hard to see them moving any of the players sooner, unless they get a firm no on a possible contract extension, the way Matthew Tkachuk gave them a firm no last summer.

The most likely player heading out the door in Calgary is popular backup goalie Dan Vladar, who checks in at No. 26 on the trade board, because ultimately, the Flames are committed to Jacob Markstrom as their starter and need to give Dustin Wolf, the top goalie in the AHL this past season, a chance to get his NHL feet wet.

It’ll be worth paying attention to Lindholm simply because Carolina tried hard to reacquire him at this past deadline.

Coyotes may revisit trading Schmaltz

Nick Schmaltz is the Coyotes’ second-best forward after Clayton Keller and had a quietly effective 2022-23 season for the Coyotes, with 58 points in 63 games. His 0.92 points per game was the same as Brad Marchand’s, and ahead of, among others, Anze Kopitar, Brock Nelson and Sebastian Aho.

Schmaltz, No. 13 on the trade board, has three years remaining on his current contract with a reasonable average annual value of $5.85 million. The problem is, the contract is backloaded, and the actual dollar amounts are high: $7.5 million, then $8.45 million, then $8.5 million. Also, a limited no-trade clause kicks in July 1. The Coyotes will be operating near the bottom of the NHL salary-cap list for the foreseeable future, because gate receipts in the Mullett Arena (capacity, 4,600) pale in comparison to what other teams generate.

So actual dollars matter, and Schmaltz may simply be too expensive to keep around. However, if the Coyotes do trade Schmaltz, they risk ticking off Keller, who works so well with him.

Other rumblings

Erik Karlsson, who may win the Norris Trophy and is under contract with a no-trade clause through 2026-27 at $11.5 million per year, wants to win. The Sharks aren’t going to win anytime soon. GM Mike Grier will continue to receive interest, and if something feasible comes to fruition, he will present it to the star defenseman, who is No. 4 on the offseason trade board.

“Hopefully he’ll be back, but we’ll have to see as he takes some time away to think about it and as we get down the road in the offseason what might pop up as far as other teams’ interest,” Grier said. “As we’ve done for the last four months, if there’s interest in him we’ll listen and see if it makes sense. If something does come up, we’ll take it to Erik. As it stands right now, he’s a big piece of our team, and we’re going to head into the offseason with that.”

Brock Boeser (10th on the trade board) has two years left on his contract and said after the season he wants to remain in Vancouver. Still, the Canucks tried to trade him at the deadline and it will likely be revisited. Ross Colton (23rd) is a restricted free agent with arbitration rights. Tampa Bay is cap strapped, so he’s expected to be shopped in advance of the draft. One other big name popping up lately is Pittsburgh’s Jake Guentzel. The Pens don’t have a GM yet, but Guentzel will be a free agent after next season so this is worth keeping an eye on. If he doesn’t sign an extension this summer, a trade could be in the offing.

Also, veteran Wild defenseman Alex Goligoski (19th) wasn’t happy being scratched virtually half the season and throughout the playoffs. If he’s not part of the plans for next season, GM Bill Guerin has said Goligoski will tell him whether or not he’d like to be moved with one year left on his contract.

Without further ado, here’s our first of what should be many iterations of the offseason trade board. Players are ranked by the amount of buzz around them, a factor of the potential impact and the likelihood of a move.

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NHL offseason trade board 1.0

1	Connor Hellebuyck	Jets	G	29	2024 UFA ($6.166 million)
2	Mark Scheifele	Jets	C	30	2024 UFA ($6.125 million)
3	William Nylander	Maple Leafs	RW	27	2025 UFA ($6.962 million)
4	Erik Karlsson	Sharks	D	32	2027 UFA ($11.5 million)
5	Kevin Hayes	Flyers	C	31	2026 UFA ($7.142 million)
6	John Gibson	Ducks	G	29	2027 UFA ($6.4 million)
7	Blake Wheeler	Jets	RW	36	2024 UFA ($8.25 million)
8	Pierre-Luc Dubois	Jets	C	24	2023 RFA ($6 million)
9	Alex DeBrincat	Senators	RW	25	2023 RFA ($6.4 million)
10	Brock Boeser	Canucks	RW	26	2025 UFA ($6.65 million)
11	Jeff Petry	Penguins	D	35	2025 UFA ($6.25 million)
12	Ivan Provorov	Flyers	D	26	2025 UFA ($6.75 million)
13	Nick Schmaltz	Coyotes	C	27	2026 UFA ($5.85 million)
14	Colton Parayko	Blues	D	30	2030 UFA ($6.5 million)
15	Kevin Labanc	Sharks	RW	27	2024 UFA ($4.725 million)
16	Elias Lindholm	Flames	C	28	2025 UFA ($4.85 million)
17	Samuel Girard	Avalanche	D	25	2027 UFA ($5 million)
18	Conor Garland	Canucks	RW	27	2026 UFA ($4.95 million)
19	Alex Goligoski	Wild	D	37	2024 UFA ($2 million)
20	Matt Grzelcyk	Bruins	D	29	2024 UFA ($3.687 million
20	Mikael Granlund	Penguins	C/RW	31	2025 UFA ($5 million)
21	Filip Zadina	Red Wings	LW	23	2025 RFA ($1.825 million)
22	Calen Addison	Wild	D	23	2023 RFA ($910,833)
23	Ross Colton	Lightning	C	26	2023 RFA ($1.125 million)
24	Anthony Mantha	Capitals	LW	28	2024 UFA ($5.7 million)
25	Taylor Hall	Bruins	LW	31	2025 UFA ($6 million)
26	Dan Vladar	Flames	G	25	2023 RFA ($750,000)
27	Adam Henrique	Ducks	C	33	2024 UFA ($5.85 million)
28	Mackenzie Blackwood	Devils	G	26	2023 RFA ($2.8 million)
29	Sean Walker	Kings	D	28	2024 UFA ($2.65 million)
30	Sean Durzi	Kings	D	24	2024 RFA ($1.7 million)

 

[George]

I never thought it would happen but I would rather be a Sabres fan then be a Bruins or Leafs fan.

Kind of reminds me of the Bills 2022 season, all that hype just made it worse on me. 

[Greg]

 

Athletic article out today on the NHL offseason by Michael Russo and Eric Duhatschek.

 

On Winnipeg -

 

"The most pressing matters revolve around Hellebuyck and Scheifele, who come in at Nos. 1 and 2 on our first edition of the offseason trade board.

 

Hellebuyck is one of the NHL’s few true No. 1, workhorse goaltenders. He won the Vezina in 2020 and is a finalist again. How much is he going to want on a long-term deal? Currently making $6.16 million, he could command $9 million-plus on the open market. Can the Jets stomach that?

 

If he becomes available, don’t be surprised if Buffalo and New Jersey take big swings.

 

One thing we’ve heard early this offseason is that the Sabres have interest in Hellebuyck, with the belief that a genuine No. 1 goaltender could be the last remaining piece in turning them into contenders. Getting one would also allow them to hold off on turning the reins over to Devon Levi until he’s proven to be NHL-ready.

 

The Jets would want young team-controlled assets in exchange, and the Sabres have plenty of those — from a youngish goaltender in Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen to promising talents like Peyton Krebs and even Casey Mittelstadt."

 

[LIBills]

The Devils will roll with Schmid as their goalie as he got a taste of the playoffs and is a blue chip prospect.

Hellebuyck is a good goalie, but I think Fitz is looking at others pieces on Winnipeg’s roster.