Buffalo Bills mock draft: A first-round trade and other final predictions

[Buddy]

Buffalo Bills mock draft: A first-round trade and other final predictions

View the full article

[HipKat]

The 2023 NFL Draft is just two days away, so let’s get right to it.

Rather than a typical rundown of picks, we’ll go through the first round in totality. We’ll also provide a running dialogue about how the draft is unfolding, along with channeling the thought processes of Bills’ general manager Brandon Beane for all the scenarios.

No time to waste. Here is our final look at the Bills’ potential draft in 2023.

Round 1

Although Beane won’t ever say what he is and isn’t going to do, you can pick up some clues. Last week during his pre-draft news conference, Beane said that once it got to around pick No. 20, the Bills would begin to recalibrate where the draft is and start concocting a plan based on who is still available. Although he isn’t going to come right out and say they aren’t making a big move up the board before that, it’s a pretty good indicator they aren’t thinking in that way. So, we’ll go through the first 19 picks for this exercise.

And in the process, we’ll keep a close eye on the receivers. While unpacking my Bills’ draft notebook in my annual series, The Draft Files, I concluded that wide receiver stands out as their most likely option in the first round. It boils down to five names, four of which possibly being worthy enough of a trade-up. The top four have the versatility to play slot receiver and on the boundary; Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Zay Flowers, Jordan Addison and Jalin Hyatt. And the fifth, a possible option at No. 27, is Josh Downs, a slot receiver only in their scheme.

With that established, let’s get to the picks.

Note: Draft picks and trades conducted by Joe Buscaglia:

2023 Mock Draft, Picks 1-19

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	POSITION	SCHOOL	TRADE DETAILS
1	Panthers	Bryce Young	QB	Alabama
2	Texans	Will Levis	QB	Kentucky
3	Cardinals	Will Anderson	Edge	Alabama
4	Colts	C.J. Stroud	QB	Ohio State
5	Seahawks	Anthony Richardson	QB	Florida
6	Lions	Devon Witherspoon	CB	Illinois
7	Texans*	Tyree Wilson	Edge	Texas Tech	HOU trades Nos. 12, 65 to LV for No. 7
8	Falcons	Bijan Robinson	RB	Texas
9	Bears	Paris Johnson Jr.	OT	Ohio State
10	Eagles	Jalen Carter	DT	Georgia
11	Patriots*	Christian Gonzalez	CB	Oregon	NE trades Nos. 14, 107, 135 to TEN for Nos. 11, 147
12	Raiders	Joey Porter Jr.	CB	Penn State
13	Packers	Broderick Jones	OT	Georgia
14	Titans	Peter Skoronski	OT/G	Northwestern
15	Jets	Darnell Wright	OT	Tennessee
16	Commanders	Lukas Van Ness	DL	Iowa
17	Steelers	Brian Branch	DB	Alabama
18	Jaguars	Nolan Smith	Edge	Georgia	JAX trades Nos. 24 and 88 to DET for No. 18
19	Buccaneers	O'Cyrus Torrence	G	Florida

*Denotes a trade-up

If there was one obvious thing while combing all of the team-specific mock drafts at The Athletic, it’s the thirst for an offensive tackle just outside the top 10. That run of three in a row helped push defensive talent down the board and, from a Bills’ point of view, kept receiver untouched through the first 19 picks.

The cost to move up to No. 20 would be the Bills’ second-round pick and a fourth-round pick in 2024 while getting a late third-round pick back in return. With all four receivers still on the board and only seven picks to go, that’s too expensive. The same goes for No. 21, which would also sacrifice No. 59. Punting on a potential long-term starter in the second round will likely be avoided by Beane. So let’s cycle through the next two picks, but only those because there is a potential receiver need at Nos. 20, 21, 22 and 25.

2023 Mock Draft, Picks 20-21

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	POSITION	SCHOOL
20	Seahawks	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	Ohio State
21	Chargers	Jalin Hyatt	WR	Tennessee

That went about as poorly as possible, as two of the four targets went off the board in both picks. Smith-Njigba to the Seahawks as their long-term running mate with DK Metcalf, and Hyatt to the Chargers to fulfill their desire to add speed to the offense. The receiver run has finally arrived. But two of those receivers, Flowers and Addison, remain, so there’s no need to overreact. If the Ravens take a receiver at No. 22, it might be time to go into action. But if not, the longer the Bills can wait, the lower the price tag.

2023 Mock Draft, Pick 22

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	POSITION	SCHOOL
22	Ravens	Deonte Banks	CB	Maryland

The Ravens didn’t go receiver, so the need to jump up to No. 23 gets thwarted. Next on the clock, the Vikings.

2023 Mock Draft, Pick 23

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	POSITION	SCHOOL	TRADE DETAILS
23	Chiefs*	Zay Flowers	WR	Boston College	KC trades Nos. 31, 95 and 134 to MIN for No. 23

Just as they did in 2022, the Chiefs jumped up the board to get their guy. The Chiefs gave the Vikings two additional selections in the trade, which appealed to the Vikings because they had only five picks to begin the day. The Chiefs’ proactive move took the third receiver off the board, which means only one thing.

The Bills held off for as long as possible to save their draft ammo and saw three receivers go in four picks. The Giants need a receiver and are sitting at No. 25, so it’s best not to tempt fate any longer. The time to act is here if the Bills want someone with outside-inside versatility.

TRADE! Bills acquire Nos. 24, 152 and 159 for Nos. 27 and 91

The pick at No. 24: Jordan Addison, WR, USC

The Bills land Addison who, although being undersized at 173 pounds, specializes in separation and has vast history playing both inside at slot receiver and on the perimeter in Stefon Diggs’ usual position. It helps alleviate pressure from Diggs as the sole target to account for and allows the Bills to move Diggs around the formation. Addison’s home in the offense would be at slot receiver, of course, but his outstanding route running, footwork and tempo variation will help him win consistently in the NFL. Stylistically, Addison sets up defenders quite similarly to how Diggs operates, so there is a natural draw for the Bills.

Some believe he’s the best receiver prospect available in the draft, but he didn’t test as well as others. Testing well is not a “need-to-have” for the Bills at receiver. Addison’s Relative Athletic Score was a 5.95 out of 10, well behind other prospects. But Gabe Davis was merely a 6.85 in his draft year, and Diggs was worse at 5.66 when he was drafted. What matters to the Bills is that a player consistently gets open, which is precisely what Addison does.

Although slot receiver Josh Downs would have been a good enough consolation prize at No. 27 without a trade-up, the ability to use Addison in two different spots of the formation at any time ultimately won out and was worth punting on No. 91 for. As for the trade, the Bills were dealing with the Lions due to a previous deal. The Bills hung on to their second-round pick and changed out their late third-round selection for a pair of fifths, accomplishing several different things. It gave them an extra selection in the draft to give them an entire draft class and enough ammo to acquire another fourth-round pick if they wanted.

Let’s finish out the first round.

2023 Mock Draft, Picks 24-31

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	POSITION	SCHOOL
24	Bills*	Jordan Addison	WR	USC
25	Giants	Quentin Johnston	WR	TCU
26	Cowboys	Michael Mayer	TE	Notre Dame
27	Lions	Calijah Kancey	DT	Pittsburgh
28	Bengals	Dalton Kincaid	TE	Utah
29	Saints	Myles Murphy	Edge	Clemson
30	Eagles	Will McDonald IV	Edge	Iowa State
31	Vikings	Hendon Hooker	QB	Tennessee

We’ll skip straight to the Bills’ picks for the rest of the draft.

The pick at No. 59: Gervon Dexter Sr., DT, Florida

By the time the Bills were on the clock, both linebackers Drew Sanders and Jack Campbell were off the board, as was offensive tackle Matthew Bergeron. That paved the way for a sole focus on a defensive tackle, though, with all four of Ed Oliver, DaQuan Jones, Jordan Phillips and Tim Settle slated to be free agents next offseason, it might have been the priority anyway. Both Dexter and Keeanu Benton were on the board, but acting as Beane, I decided on Dexter.

Although Benton would be a locked-in starter at one-technique next year, Dexter represents an incredibly high ceiling and the type of profile Beane has gravitated toward throughout his Bills drafting career. Dexter would be a home run swing, someone who would vastly outplay his draft position if he hits. Dexter has outstanding size (6-foot-6, 323 pounds), arm length (33 inches) and a basketball background that shows up in his nimble feet while working toward the backfield. Dexter works well against double-teams, giving him the versatility to play both positions in the Bills’ scheme while being a potential three-down player. His versatility could have him play next to Oliver as a starting player in the future. If they can’t sign Oliver to an extension, Dexter is a backup plan and would conceivably step into that three-technique role. Dexter would keep all the Bills’ options open, while Benton would pressure them to re-sign Oliver.

The pick at No. 130: Braeden Daniels, OT, Utah

The Bills have room to add one more offensive lineman to compete with David Quessenberry and Tommy Doyle for a roster spot, and they find an extremely versatile one in Daniels. He has the size (nearly 6-foot-4, 307 pounds), arm length (33 inches) and athleticism (9.56 Relative Athletic Score) that the Bills look for in an offensive tackle prospect. However, Daniels can also play guard, as he started 17 games there early in his college career before getting 12 starts at right tackle and 14 starts at left tackle. That versatility will go a long way in 2023 and beyond for their depth and potential future starting lineups.

The pick at No. 137: Christopher Smith, S, Georgia

The Bills have the trio of Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer and Taylor Rapp locked in for 2023, and Damar Hamlin is working his way back in as well, though the Bills still have room for one more defensive back on their roster. Smith is an undersized safety who did not test well relative to his position, but he excels in his range, instincts, anticipation and special teams. That sounds like a Sean McDermott special to develop in the background.

The pick at No. 152: Marte Mapu, LB, Sacramento State

Although he’s listed as a safety in most places, at 6-foot-3 and 221 pounds, Mapu translates best to the Bills as a linebacker. He would immediately become a core special teams player. At the same time, there is some down-the-line potential to become the third linebacker against heavy formations and, maybe, even a top two linebacker if all goes well. As written by The Athletic’s draft expert Dane Brugler, Mapu’s strengths read like what Matt Milano was in his draft year.

“Understands depth in zone to float and find passing lanes … reads run keys wonderfully to beat blockers to the spot and establish leverage … mirrors well laterally with a burst to close that helps keep blocking hands off him … lowers the boom as a drive-through, knockback tackler … very aggressive and savvy as a blitzer … smart and instinctive, which is a direct result of his devotion to film study … brings a blue-collar work ethic, and football is important to him … called the “silent assassin” by his college coaches for his humble personality but violent play.”

The pick at No. 159: Payne Durham, TE, Purdue

The Bills likely want to tap into this tight end class and find a worthwhile blocker to give them more flexibility to use 12 personnel more often. Durham, along with his excellent football-friendly first name, is an accomplished college blocker and “enjoys the dirty work at the position,” according to Brugler. He’ll be the No. 3 tight end to begin, with the chance to unseat Quintin Morris for the No. 2 job.

The pick at No. 205: Evan Hull, RB, Northwestern

This late, it comes down to who can win a spot on the 53-man roster, and the Bills potentially have an opening for a fourth running back this year. Hull would be a nice blend of size (212 pounds), between-the-tackles running and enough pass-catching skills (88 catches in his last two years of college) to win a roster spot. They could develop him into a solid committee option if they’re patient with him.

Final thoughts

The one omission is at linebacker, but as we pointed out in Part 2 of The Draft Files, drafting a linebacker early to replace 2022 third-round pick Terrel Bernard would be the first time this regime has given up on a Day 1 or Day 2 selection after one season. But the Bills also have the alternative of combing roster cuts and finding a more suitable starter if Bernard shows to be incapable in the summer months. In this scenario, they would truly find out about Bernard, their investment, with options (free agent, A.J. Klein, Tyrel Dodson) to pivot if needed during the year.

2023 Bills final mock draft

ROUND	OVERALL PICK	PLAYER	POSITION	SCHOOL
1	24	Jordan Addison	WR	USC
2	59	Gervon Dexter Sr.	DT	Florida
4	130	Braeden Daniels	OT/G	Utah
5	137	Christopher Smith	S	Georgia
5	152	Marte Mapu	LB	Sacramento State
5	159	Payne Durham	TE	Purdue
6	205	Evan Hull	RB	Northwestern