HipKat Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 The Buffalo Bills’ precarious position under the projected 2023 salary cap demands that the franchise not carry any “bad” contracts. Unfortunately, when it comes to defensive tackle Ed Oliver, that just might be the case. The ninth overall pick in the 2019 NFL draft, Oliver has played out the first four, cost-controlled years of his rookie contract. Last spring, the Bills picked up their fifth-year option, but that comes with a hefty pay raise. Oliver is scheduled to make – and count against the salary cap – a guaranteed $10.753 million in 2023. That's a huge jump from the $3.177 million he pocketed and the $6.26 million he counted against the cap in 2022. The problem is, Oliver’s production is not in line with that type of pay raise. The 25-year-old appeared in 13 games in 2022, starting all of them, and finished with 34 tackles, 2.5 sacks and 14 quarterback hits. In 2021, Oliver played in all 17 games, again starting them all, and finished with 41 tackles, four sacks and the same 14 quarterback hits. The reduction in games played from 2021 to 2022 is because of a high-ankle sprain that kept Oliver out of the lineup from Weeks 2-4, as well as the cancellation of the Week 17 game against Cincinnati. Four years into his career, Oliver has not been a bust. But he’s not been a home run, either. In 62 games in the regular season, Oliver has made 133 tackles, 14.5 sacks, 11 passes defensed and four forced fumbles. He has not been selected to a Pro Bowl – even as watered down as that has become – or an All-Pro team. He’s won AFC Defensive Player of the Week once in his career – in Week 12 this past season after his game against Detroit. He finished with one sack, one forced fumble, one fumble recovery and one safety against the Lions. Games like that were the expectation when the Bills used a top-10 pick on Oliver coming out of the University of Houston. They have not, however, come with enough consistency. At 6-foot-1 and 287 pounds, Oliver is undersized for an NFL defensive tackle. That was true when the Bills drafted him. Given his frame, it was unrealistic to expect him to become a run-stuffer in the middle of the line. To impact games, they were betting on him being a disruptive interior pass rusher. The comparison at the time to Rams superstar Aaron Donald was and remains unfair – Donald is a future first-ballot Hall of Famer who is in a class by himself – but the point was easy enough to follow. At times, Oliver has been that disruptor in the middle. He has even shown he’s capable of taking over games – he particularly loves playing on Thanksgiving – but far too often disappears. That was true in the divisional loss to the Cincinnati Bengals last month, when he had just one assisted tackle and, according to analytics website Pro Football Focus, two pressures of quarterback Joe Burrow. A few days after that loss, Bills General Manager Brandon Beane was asked about Oliver’s season. “I think Ed has done some really good things for us and has grown,” Beane said. “I think there are some things he's done well, but I do think there's some meat on the bone. It's not from a lack of effort. He works hard. He's one of the guys, but I think he'd tell you, too, there are probably some plays he wants back in certain games or certain moments. You know, we picked up his fifth-year option so going into this season, we expect him to find a little bit more and I know Ed expects that of himself.” That may not sound like much, but keep in mind that the Bills’ front office and coaching staff is loathe to criticize players publicly. Beane’s words, then, amount to a challenge of sorts to Oliver. Simply put, the Bills need him to be much better – especially if he’s making seven figures. While it’s true that life got more difficult for every member of the Bills’ defensive line after Von Miller was lost for the season because of a knee injury, that can’t be an excuse for Oliver. He was drafted where he was to raise the level of play of those around him – not have his game be dependent on someone else doing that. According to PFF, Oliver had an overall grade of 68.5 (out of 100), which ranked 28th out of 67 defensive tackles who played at least 478 defensive snaps during the regular season. When adding in the Bills’ two postseason games, Oliver’s overall grade slipped to 67.5, which ranked 31st out of 63 tackles who played at least 518 defensive snaps. The big issue is that Oliver’s pass rush grade was just 64.1, including the postseason, which ranked 36th. PFF tracked Oliver for 37 total pressures in the regular season and playoffs, which ranked 23rd among defensive tackles out of 45 players who had at least 359 pass-rush snaps. Also, consider this: Oliver was credited with a whopping 10 total pressures against Minnesota in Week 10, which means he had just 27 in the other 17 games the Bills played – an average of less than two per game. In the seven games that followed Oliver’s strong performance against the Lions, he managed a PFF grade of better than 66.5 just once, against Chicago in Week 16. What makes matters worse for the Bills is considering the other players they could have had at No. 9. While hindsight after any draft is always 20-20, we can look at the next three defensive tackles to come off the board, since we know that’s a position the Bills were looking to address, and come away with some serious remorse. At No. 13 overall, Miami selected 6-foot-4, 310-pounder Christian Wilkins out of Clemson. At No. 17 overall, the New York Giants chose Wilkins’ teammate at Clemson, 6-foot-4, 342-pounder Dexter Lawrence. Then at No. 19 overall, the Tennessee Titans chose Jeffery Simmons, a 6-foot-4, 305-pounder from Mississippi State. Of that group, Oliver ranks last in tackles and No. 3 in both sacks and quarterback hits, ahead of only Wilkins – who is a vastly superior run defender. Wilkins has had a higher PFF grade than Oliver – by a significant margin – in each of the past three seasons. Simmons, Wilkins and Lawrence have combined for three Pro Bowl appearances and one second-team All-Pro selection – by Lawrence this season. Right now, Oliver’s cap number ranks as the eighth highest on the Bills’ 2023 salary cap. The only way for the Bills to lower than number would be to sign Oliver to an extension, which would spread the dollars out over a longer period of time – but is that something Beane really wants to do? Have the Bills seen enough from Oliver in four full years to think he’s ready to take a big step in his career? That seems hard to imagine. If Beane decides Oliver isn’t worth the money he’s scheduled to be paid, his only way out of the contract is via a trade. That comes with its own set of problems. For starters, the Bills wouldn’t exactly be dealing from a position of strength after their GM admitted the team expects more from Oliver. Of course, it only takes one of the 31 other GMs to see the flashes from Oliver and convince himself that his team’s coaching staff has the key to unlocking Oliver’s consistency. Even if that were to happen, both sides would need to agree on the proper compensation. The Bills are not a rebuilding team, so moving Oliver for draft capital is a huge risk. For that move to be worth it, Beane would have to land a rookie starter. Not even Kaiir Elam, last year’s first-round pick, was able to consistently be that for the Bills. A player-for-player trade could make sense, but it would require the right partner and would have to fill a specific need for the Bills. Even if that were to happen, the question of how Oliver gets replaced in the lineup is a difficult one to answer. The Bills’ defensive line underachieved, especially after Miller went down, and would not get better by losing Oliver in a trade. It makes for a tricky question for Beane – one of several he’ll have to answer this offseason. The best solution for both sides may be to have Oliver play out the final year of his contract, motivated by his desire for a new deal, whether with the Bills or a new team after the 2023 season. Maybe he’ll find that little bit more that Beane referenced. After four years in the league, however, it’s fair to wonder just how much more Oliver has to give. Quote “There he goes. One of God's own prototypes. A high-powered mutant of some kind, never even considered for mass production. Too weird to live, and too rare to die.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seandelevan Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Don’t say I didn’t try to warn y’all….smh 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post seandelevan Posted February 5 Popular Post Share Posted February 5 If a noob like me was saying we need to build around our franchise qb 5 FUCKING YEARS AGO and this front office still hasn’t done it…and are now suffering the consequences of NOT doing that…then WHAT THE FUCK are we doing? Who the FUCK has any hope they’ll all of a sudden “get it”. I don’t! Some folks are saying the Bills Super Bowl window is closed…it’s hard to disagree with them. They FUCKED up this roster the weekend after drafting Josh Allen… 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpp Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 4 minutes ago, seandelevan said: If a noob like me was saying we need to build around our franchise qb 5 FUCKING YEARS AGO and this front office still hasn’t done it…and are now suffering the consequences of NOT doing that…then WHAT THE FUCK are we doing? Who the FUCK has any hope they’ll all of a sudden “get it”. I don’t! Some folks are saying the Bills Super Bowl window is closed…it’s hard to disagree with them. They FUCKED up this roster the weekend after drafting Josh Allen… Im tellin ya....This is a Marvin Lewis 2.0 football team....main difference we have a much better QB (such a waste) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Buffalochief2 Posted February 5 Popular Post Share Posted February 5 Since we haven’t fired Frazier yet it doesn’t matter who we play at DT. We will still have a passive, read and react defense that will rank in the top ten during the season but collapse in playoffs to the top offenses. Any street FA DT on a 2 mil/ year salary can give us the same production as Ed. Trade him in a package deal for draft picks. Maybe someone will give us a 2 or 3 rounder for him. 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daryls61 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 hours ago, seandelevan said: If a noob like me was saying we need to build around our franchise qb 5 FUCKING YEARS AGO and this front office still hasn’t done it…and are now suffering the consequences of NOT doing that…then WHAT THE FUCK are we doing? Who the FUCK has any hope they’ll all of a sudden “get it”. I don’t! Some folks are saying the Bills Super Bowl window is closed…it’s hard to disagree with them. They FUCKED up this roster the weekend after drafting Josh Allen… Yet #2 offense in NFL - The stats prove you wrong every time. 3 Quote The Things that unite us are far greater than the things that divide us. "Are you a Jedi?" "I am" Din Djarin to Luke Skywalker in The Mandalorian "The Force, it's calling to you. Just let it in." - Maz Kanata: Star Wars VII The Force Awakens #Cup or Bust 2024 #Bowl or Bust 2023 - It is the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nealpellecchia@yahoo Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Playing the big bloke on the last play of a late season game so he could hurt his shoulder bugs me... It's filed in the let Beasley go for the thousand yards just before the playoffs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post SackMan518 Posted February 5 Popular Post Share Posted February 5 He is way too inconsistent. For his career he has 11 passes defensed, 4 forced fumbles, 1 fumble recovery, 14.5 sacks, and 42 QB hits. Let's look at the DT's drafted after Oliver (Quinenn Williams was already gone as the Jets selected him) : Christian Wilkins - Miami Dolphins (1 INT, 17 PD, 3 FF, 4 FR, 11.5 sacks, and 27 QB hits) Dexter Lawrence - NJ Giants (Pro Bowl) Jeffery Simmons - TN Titans (Pro Bowl) Jerry Tillery - LA Chargers (Bust, now on the Raiders) That's it for the 1st round and clearly we got the pick wrong with Lawrence and Simmons on the board. One could argue that Wilkins stats are on the level with Oliver but Wilkins was drafted 4 spots lower while Oliver was the 9th pick in the draft. So out of that 1st round Williams, Lawrence, and Simmons were all Pro Bowlers and the other 3 guys we have 2 decent ones and 1 bust. I can say his selection may have set our defensive line back a bit as well needed a baller in that position. So, the article is correct in that we aren't getting the bang for the buck out of him. 5 Quote Sack "The Buffalo Range's TRUSTED News Source!" “When a well-packaged web of lies has been sold gradually to the masses over generations, the truth will seem utterly preposterous and its speaker a raving lunatic.” ~ Dresden James Twitter: Zack518Mann Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whorlnut Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 5 hours ago, daryls61 said: Yet #2 offense in NFL - The stats prove you wrong every time. Go listen to Greg Cosell from yesterday. There is context to your number 2 offense. Anyone with a warm brain knows this offense is Allen and Diggs then a bunch of guys that don’t step up. Please stop… 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baldat28 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Trade him to Zona for Hopkins.....or work a three team deal out and trade him to Seattle and let Seattle give pick #37 to Tampa and we get Evans, though I'm not sure what the value is on Oliver 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post The Chosen Posted February 5 Popular Post Share Posted February 5 I have a hard time blaming players, when I don't believe in the scheme they're forced to play in. Does everyone of these Dlinemen suck or are they not being used properly? We all loved our dline going into camp. Did they have us all fooled? Or did coaching and scheme let us all down? Edmunds hasn't lived up to expectations either, but would anyone really be surprised if he went elsewhere and became great? We've had turn over in players, but not coaching. Yet always same results. 5 Quote Crowded elevators smell different to midgets............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zan186 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Oliver is much like Aaron Donald in being a smaller speed DT. With that being said he is very good on dry turf but is ineffective in snow or wet turf. Simply put he needs to be explosive to split double teams or to get penetration and get up under the DT's pads. Oliver has gotten better each year and in normal game conditions is a solid DT in all aspects of the game. You just cannot use him properly in snow, where speed is neutralized and size and weight become dominating. Let him play out year 5 and then offer him a contract based on his 5 years of stats and play. This is where Beane needs to let another team set the market value for him and take a Compensatory pick loosing him. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seandelevan Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 16 minutes ago, The Chosen said: I have a hard time blaming players, when I don't believe in the scheme they're forced to play in. Does everyone of these Dlinemen suck or are they not being used properly? We all loved our dline going into camp. Did they have us all fooled? Or did coaching and scheme let us all down? Edmunds hasn't lived up to expectations either, but would anyone really be surprised if he went elsewhere and became great? We've had turn over in players, but not coaching. Yet always same results. And I’ll always blame the players over the scheme. Fuck scheme. If you’re good or great it doesn’t matter what scheme you play in. Look at Jordan Phillips, Shaq Lawson, and AJ Klein…..when all three left the Bills they were hot garbage. Then like magic they were solid to good sometimes great for the Bills. Im beginning to think it’s the players now….they blow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy Legs Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 What would Bill Belichek do? He would trade him, this spring. Get some value for him, and don't look back. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamsim67 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 11 hours ago, seandelevan said: And I’ll always blame the players over the scheme. Fuck scheme. If you’re good or great it doesn’t matter what scheme you play in. Look at Jordan Phillips, Shaq Lawson, and AJ Klein…..when all three left the Bills they were hot garbage. Then like magic they were solid to good sometimes great for the Bills. Im beginning to think it’s the players now….they blow. Not after 13 seconds, and whatever that was they were doing at home, against the Bengals. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seandelevan Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 5 minutes ago, jamsim67 said: Not after 13 seconds, and whatever that was they were doing at home, against the Bengals. As a point of conjecture….regarding 13 seconds….wasn’t there news that Levi Wallace…among others fucked up? They were told what to do and they fucked it up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamsim67 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 11 minutes ago, seandelevan said: As a point of conjecture….regarding 13 seconds….wasn’t there news that Levi Wallace…among others fucked up? They were told what to do and they fucked it up. If you've been playing, or coaching the game for any length of time, you shouldn't need to be told what to do. Bill's rushed 4 or 5 (barely), everybody else started about 10 yards off the line of scrimmage, and backed up, giving KC all the space they needed. Pretty sure they threw someone under the bus, but that was McDermott and Frasier just following orders. Pretty sure McDermott learned from it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daryls61 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 15 hours ago, whorlnut said: Go listen to Greg Cosell from yesterday. There is context to your number 2 offense. Anyone with a warm brain knows this offense is Allen and Diggs then a bunch of guys that don’t step up. Please stop… LOL Whor. The Chiefs have one guy as well, Kelce and they are in the Super Bowl. Very embarrassing for you that you didn't know that. I hope this is not another step back for you. Quote The Things that unite us are far greater than the things that divide us. "Are you a Jedi?" "I am" Din Djarin to Luke Skywalker in The Mandalorian "The Force, it's calling to you. Just let it in." - Maz Kanata: Star Wars VII The Force Awakens #Cup or Bust 2024 #Bowl or Bust 2023 - It is the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whorlnut Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 25 minutes ago, daryls61 said: LOL Whor. The Chiefs have one guy as well, Kelce and they are in the Super Bowl. Very embarrassing for you that you didn't know that. I hope this is not another step back for you. You are in the minority if you think the number 2 ranking is indicative of talent on this roster. You’re literally one of the only “fans” and/or media member that thinks we talented on offense outside of Diggs and Allen. Do you think Greg Cosell doesn’t know what he’s talking about? How about Joe Marino? Enlighten us… 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daryls61 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 31 minutes ago, whorlnut said: You are in the minority if you think the number 2 ranking is indicative of talent on this roster. You’re literally one of the only “fans” and/or media member that thinks we talented on offense outside of Diggs and Allen. Do you think Greg Cosell doesn’t know what he’s talking about? How about Joe Marino? Enlighten us… LOL Whor, Of course their ranking equates to the tallent on the team. Fort Knox is a pro bowl TE and Big Game Gabe comes up big in big games. Bills could add Justin Jefferson and Jamar Chase but if the OL doesnt improve and Allen keeps throwing red zone INT's costing us games. It wont matter. Very embarrassing for you that you don't know this after everything I have taught you.. Quote The Things that unite us are far greater than the things that divide us. "Are you a Jedi?" "I am" Din Djarin to Luke Skywalker in The Mandalorian "The Force, it's calling to you. Just let it in." - Maz Kanata: Star Wars VII The Force Awakens #Cup or Bust 2024 #Bowl or Bust 2023 - It is the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Victor7 Posted February 6 Popular Post Share Posted February 6 I honestly don't care anymore. As long as Frazier and McD keep running that soft zone bend but don't break defense it wont matter. 3 straight seasons of the same and they still have not learned their lesson. Obviously not all of our players have lived up to their expectations. But its also foolish to think they all suck. Its both the players and the system. I am convinced players like Edmunds, Oliver and Groot would be better with more aggressive coaching/scheme. I am also convinced Epenesa and Boogie are garbage and would not be good on ANY system. Bit of both. But nothing changes and that's the real issue. We are gonna go into 2023 with the SAME scheme and ideas. 1 2 Quote Bills fan for life!! ................ I love beer, rum, scotch and women !! :rockon: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpikedLemonade Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 15 hours ago, Zan186 said: Oliver is much like Aaron Donald in being a smaller speed DT. With that being said he is very good on dry turf but is ineffective in snow or wet turf. Simply put he needs to be explosive to split double teams or to get penetration and get up under the DT's pads. Oliver has gotten better each year and in normal game conditions is a solid DT in all aspects of the game. You just cannot use him properly in snow, where speed is neutralized and size and weight become dominating. Let him play out year 5 and then offer him a contract based on his 5 years of stats and play. This is where Beane needs to let another team set the market value for him and take a Compensatory pick loosing him. Holy Shit!!! 1 Quote Do Your Part to Improve The Range -- Please put the TRIO OF TRUMP FLUFFERSTM on IGNORE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpikedLemonade Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 49 minutes ago, Victor7 said: I honestly don't care anymore. As long as Frazier and McD keep running that soft zone bend but don't break defense it wont matter. 3 straight seasons of the same and they still have not learned their lesson. Obviously not all of our players have lived up to their expectations. But its also foolish to think they all suck. Its both the players and the system. I am convinced players like Edmunds, Oliver and Groot would be better with more aggressive coaching/scheme. I am also convinced Epenesa and Boogie are garbage and would not be good on ANY system. Bit of both. But nothing changes and that's the real issue. We are gonna go into 2023 with the SAME scheme and ideas. ABSENTEE OWNERSHIP Quote Do Your Part to Improve The Range -- Please put the TRIO OF TRUMP FLUFFERSTM on IGNORE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deleted Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 17 hours ago, whorlnut said: Go listen to Greg Cosell from yesterday. There is context to your number 2 offense. Anyone with a warm brain knows this offense is Allen and Diggs then a bunch of guys that don’t step up. Please stop… Or the 'bunch of guys' aren't used correctly. Aaron Quinn of Cover 1 made a good point that our weapons aren't that bad. If Dorsey can't use what we have; will another weapon solve the problem? Not sure I agree or disagree, but it was a valid point. For all of the histrionics in this thread, our biggest problems have been that our higher defensive picks have not been great. They have been good, at best. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whorlnut Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 hours ago, daryls61 said: LOL Whor, Of course their ranking equates to the tallent on the team. Fort Knox is a pro bowl TE and Big Game Gabe comes up big in big games. Bills could add Justin Jefferson and Jamar Chase but if the OL doesnt improve and Allen keeps throwing red zone INT's costing us games. It wont matter. Very embarrassing for you that you don't know this after everything I have taught you.. enjoy being in the minority. You know more than people that get paid to cover football. Got it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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