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The West Isn’t Scared Of Ukraine Beating Russia Anymore


HipKat
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Has the West lost its fear of a Ukrainian victory? – The collective West has long hesitated to provide Ukraine with offensive weapons that might appear to be escalatory to the Russian aggressor and precipitate a nuclear strike.

The dilemma here is that the effectiveness of Russia’s nuclear threats in producing Western vacillation and self-deterrence (understandable given possible dire consequences) incentivizes Moscow to repeat its threats. Thus Western policy has vacillated between offering Ukraine just enough military aid to avoid defeat and intentions to provide aid sufficient to achieve an outright victory. The overriding Western fear was that a notable Ukrainian victory, such as the anticipated liberation of Crimea, might provoke a nuclear strike.  Accordingly, the West could not formulate clear objectives and a logical response to Russia’s aggression.

Ramstein-9 and Ukraine

However, a tectonic shift in Western thinking has evidently emerged from the January 20 meeting of the Ramstein-9 Ukraine Defense Contact Group of fifty-one countries. The Group came out for supplying Ukraine with heavy offensive weapons in quantities sufficient for an Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) victory, to be understood as the liberation of all Russian-occupied territories back to the internationally recognized borders of 1991. A number of Western experts now believe the likelihood of a Russian nuclear strike to be quite small. China and India have spoken against a nuclear strike, and a worldwide economic embargo against Russia would stay the Kremlin’s hand, not to mention military actions that the US or NATO countries might take.

Political opinion has changed the most in Germany, which, once having been the country most reluctant to send military aid, has now become one of the main providers. However, Germany has not agreed to allow allied states that had purchased stocks of its Leopard 2 tanks to transfer these tanks to Ukraine. The Leopards are the most readily available in large numbers and are the most suited to Ukrainian conditions. Several of the thirteen countries having the Leopard have offered to contribute some tanks; Poland is ready to send 100 or more immediately. The German government remains reluctant to approve transfers despite the latest Russian missile terror strike on a Ukrainian apartment building, this time in the city of Dnipro, where at least 44 civilians were killed and a larger number injured.

After impressive advances in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions in September and October, the AFU was unable to pursue further because of insufficient equipment and logistical capacity, rainy weather, and the successful Russian tactic of throwing masses of barely trained or untrained amnestied convicts and other social marginals against the AFU lines. This tactic, along with Western vacillation, allowed Russian President Vladimir Putin to hold out to his army and public the prospect of ultimate Russian victory.

While the AFU’s advances were stalled, relentless Russian attacks on the Donbas towns of Bakhmut and Soledar in the east, though very costly and gaining little territory, succeeded in holding the AFU from launching offensives in the south. This also gave the Russians a breathing space to train more reserves. The Kremlin has projected an initial mobilization of 300,000 men, possibly growing to 500,000 or even more by the spring or summer, to be added to the approximately 150,000 or 200,000 already in Ukraine. A Ukrainian offensive in the spring will now be more difficult and costly than one would have been earlier.

Yet back in December, the top AFU general, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, had declared that in order to launch a major offensive, the AFU needed the order of 300 additional main battle tanks, 500 modern artillery pieces, and 600 or more armored combat vehicles. The Ramstein-9 meeting has gone a long way toward meeting Zaluzhnyi’s request, and seems to mark a turning point in Western policy.

The Ramstein-9 meeting is heavy with political significance. For the first time, the West is sending equipment that is explicitly offensive, and the quantities are large. The West seems to have overcome its fear of a Ukrainian victory and has made a commitment to support Ukraine that is probably irreversible.

The military significance is that the AFU will likely be able to reach the Azov Sea coast, thereby blocking the Russian land corridor to Crimea. The Russian strategic position in Ukraine’s south is inherently poor, inasmuch as the Russian army is stretched over a front that is long and narrow. The AFU will attempt to find a weak point in the front; and, if successful, will cut the Russian army in half, with Russian forces west of the point, and south in Crimea, isolated from supplies from the east.

The Russians are aware of this possibility.  Consequently it appears that their attempts to fortify Melitopol in the west and Crimea to the south are only half-hearted.  The main Russian efforts are likely to be in the Donbas, a political objective of Putin’s long standing, and further north, in the Kharkiv and Chernihiv regions, which border Russia and offer favorable logistics.

But after nearly a year of the war, the Russian army is severely degraded. It has lost almost all of its initial complement of modern tanks and armored vehicles. Free-for-all artillery barrages have caused the artillery barrels to be badly worn and inaccurate. Many of the better junior officers and large parts of the professional army have been lost.  It seems that the Russians are limited to three strategies. One strategy will be continued missile terror attacks on Ukrainian civilian areas. These attacks will occur particularly because Ukraine will have no defense against the supersonic Kh-22 missile for several months until a few Patriot anti-missile systems are installed and personnel trained for these. The second strategy is to take out of storage and refurbish old Soviet-era tanks and artillery equipment, but this might be technically difficult.

The third – main – strategy will be to throw masses of infantry against the AFU lines and to overcome these lines through sheer weight of numbers. This very costly tactic showed some success in Bakhmut and Soledar – success in the sense that the Russian infantry proved its ability to keep pressing despite phenomenal human losses. The Russian political and military commands are able to use this tactic because they are utterly indifferent to losses. Much of the fighting and dying until now has been done by non-Russians from the east, such as Buryats and Udmurts, and from the south, such as Dagestanis, Ingushetians, and Kadyrovite Chechens. These are supplemented by Russian social marginals from prisons and from the poverty-stricken peripheries of Russia, along with soldiers from the so-called Luhansk and Donetsk Republics and by collaborators and civilians forcibly conscripted from other Ukrainian areas of occupation. Therefore the ethnic-Russian middle class of the large cities has been relatively untouched by mobilization, and the Kremlin has been able to manage any incipient anti-war sentiment.

What Happens Next? 

In sum, the stage is set for major bloodbaths this spring. There are some important imponderables. On the Ukrainian side, the list is shorter. The Ukrainians are fighting for their survival against explicit genocide by Russia, so for the Ukrainians, submission is not an option. Their determination to fight remains high, and their morale and capacity are improved by the latest tranche of offensive weapons. The Ukrainians are neither surprised nor intimidated by the ongoing Russian mobilizations, and some Ukrainian military experts think that steel will prevail over flesh, as was the usual historical pattern. The main imponderable could be Western fatigue over the longer term, though Ramstein-9 has indicated that fatigue is not an issue for the present.

The list of imponderables is longer on the Russian side. First, it is not certain that recruitment will be successful and that the army will be able to provide the soldiers adequately with personal equipment, vehicles, and weapons. A related question is whether Russia will be able to ramp up its war industries in view of sanctions on components and the general decline of the economy.  Another factor is that ammunition stocks are considerably depleted and might not be replaceable.

A final, and perhaps key, imponderable on the Russian side is a political one concerning the conduct of the war itself. If the AFU blocks the Russian land bridge to Crimea, this will mean that, after a year of heavy fighting and expense, the Putin regime shall have gained almost nothing.  At the least, this will cause recrimination within the Russian public, army, and government. Putin’s authority will inevitably decline, though by how much remains to be seen.

But overall, it appears that Ramstein-9 has started to make a complete Ukrainian military victory both thinkable and plausible. 

 

“There he goes. One of God's own prototypes.

A high-powered mutant of some kind, never even considered for mass production.

Too weird to live, and too rare to die.”

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10 hours ago, Herodotus said:

Keep dreaming.

I know, it’s absolutely unfathomable for you to consider the fact that your hero, Vladimir Putin, the one you worship, whose posters you have all over your bedroom walls could be full of shit and waging the most embarrassing and fruitless war in modern history

“There he goes. One of God's own prototypes.

A high-powered mutant of some kind, never even considered for mass production.

Too weird to live, and too rare to die.”

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9 minutes ago, HipKat said:

I know, it’s absolutely unfathomable for you to consider the fact that your hero, Vladimir Putin, the one you worship, whose posters you have all over your bedroom walls could be full of shit and waging the most embarrassing and fruitless war in modern history

Pathetic. Really stupid.

"The Zarqawi PSYOP program is the most successful information campaign to date." ~ Gen. Mark (Killer) Kimmitt

http://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/archivos_pdf/911_newpearlharbor.pdf

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41 minutes ago, HipKat said:

I know, it’s absolutely unfathomable for you to consider the fact that your hero, Vladimir Putin, the one you worship, whose posters you have all over your bedroom walls could be full of shit and waging the most embarrassing and fruitless war in modern history

What is your source for your information? Mark Milley and the Pentagram who have told us that Russia was going to run out of missiles in March (of last year).  Or was Ukraine, who told us about 13 soldiers who said go fuck yourself, ghost of chicken kiev, they destroyed the bridge (we even have a commemorative postage stamp).  Or was it the state department and corporate state press who insist that there are no Nazis in Ukraine.  Was it Zelensky who told us that they were gonna stick it to the Russians at Bakhmut, but now that Bakhmut is falling it turns out was insignificant? Was it Biden who said the Taliban would not topple the Afghan government? Was it the MIC who said every wunderwaffle it sold to Ukraine would be a game changer? Was it Ukraine's government that callsn 9000 civilian dead a genocide even though in Iraq we killed a minimum of 35,000 acceptable collateral damage a year? Was it the suck dick, uh sec def, who is in charge of a pentagram that has not won a war since World War One? And has embarrassed itself in Afghanistan and Syria where it blamed the mean old Russians and Iraq.  Tell us, why do you keep buying their bullshit? 

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On 1/22/2023 at 10:30 PM, HipKat said:

 

Has the West lost its fear of a Ukrainian victory? – The collective West has long hesitated to provide Ukraine with offensive weapons that might appear to be escalatory to the Russian aggressor and precipitate a nuclear strike.

The dilemma here is that the effectiveness of Russia’s nuclear threats in producing Western vacillation and self-deterrence (understandable given possible dire consequences) incentivizes Moscow to repeat its threats. Thus Western policy has vacillated between offering Ukraine just enough military aid to avoid defeat and intentions to provide aid sufficient to achieve an outright victory. The overriding Western fear was that a notable Ukrainian victory, such as the anticipated liberation of Crimea, might provoke a nuclear strike.  Accordingly, the West could not formulate clear objectives and a logical response to Russia’s aggression.

Ramstein-9 and Ukraine

However, a tectonic shift in Western thinking has evidently emerged from the January 20 meeting of the Ramstein-9 Ukraine Defense Contact Group of fifty-one countries. The Group came out for supplying Ukraine with heavy offensive weapons in quantities sufficient for an Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) victory, to be understood as the liberation of all Russian-occupied territories back to the internationally recognized borders of 1991. A number of Western experts now believe the likelihood of a Russian nuclear strike to be quite small. China and India have spoken against a nuclear strike, and a worldwide economic embargo against Russia would stay the Kremlin’s hand, not to mention military actions that the US or NATO countries might take.

Political opinion has changed the most in Germany, which, once having been the country most reluctant to send military aid, has now become one of the main providers. However, Germany has not agreed to allow allied states that had purchased stocks of its Leopard 2 tanks to transfer these tanks to Ukraine. The Leopards are the most readily available in large numbers and are the most suited to Ukrainian conditions. Several of the thirteen countries having the Leopard have offered to contribute some tanks; Poland is ready to send 100 or more immediately. The German government remains reluctant to approve transfers despite the latest Russian missile terror strike on a Ukrainian apartment building, this time in the city of Dnipro, where at least 44 civilians were killed and a larger number injured.

After impressive advances in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions in September and October, the AFU was unable to pursue further because of insufficient equipment and logistical capacity, rainy weather, and the successful Russian tactic of throwing masses of barely trained or untrained amnestied convicts and other social marginals against the AFU lines. This tactic, along with Western vacillation, allowed Russian President Vladimir Putin to hold out to his army and public the prospect of ultimate Russian victory.

While the AFU’s advances were stalled, relentless Russian attacks on the Donbas towns of Bakhmut and Soledar in the east, though very costly and gaining little territory, succeeded in holding the AFU from launching offensives in the south. This also gave the Russians a breathing space to train more reserves. The Kremlin has projected an initial mobilization of 300,000 men, possibly growing to 500,000 or even more by the spring or summer, to be added to the approximately 150,000 or 200,000 already in Ukraine. A Ukrainian offensive in the spring will now be more difficult and costly than one would have been earlier.

Yet back in December, the top AFU general, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, had declared that in order to launch a major offensive, the AFU needed the order of 300 additional main battle tanks, 500 modern artillery pieces, and 600 or more armored combat vehicles. The Ramstein-9 meeting has gone a long way toward meeting Zaluzhnyi’s request, and seems to mark a turning point in Western policy.

The Ramstein-9 meeting is heavy with political significance. For the first time, the West is sending equipment that is explicitly offensive, and the quantities are large. The West seems to have overcome its fear of a Ukrainian victory and has made a commitment to support Ukraine that is probably irreversible.

The military significance is that the AFU will likely be able to reach the Azov Sea coast, thereby blocking the Russian land corridor to Crimea. The Russian strategic position in Ukraine’s south is inherently poor, inasmuch as the Russian army is stretched over a front that is long and narrow. The AFU will attempt to find a weak point in the front; and, if successful, will cut the Russian army in half, with Russian forces west of the point, and south in Crimea, isolated from supplies from the east.

The Russians are aware of this possibility.  Consequently it appears that their attempts to fortify Melitopol in the west and Crimea to the south are only half-hearted.  The main Russian efforts are likely to be in the Donbas, a political objective of Putin’s long standing, and further north, in the Kharkiv and Chernihiv regions, which border Russia and offer favorable logistics.

But after nearly a year of the war, the Russian army is severely degraded. It has lost almost all of its initial complement of modern tanks and armored vehicles. Free-for-all artillery barrages have caused the artillery barrels to be badly worn and inaccurate. Many of the better junior officers and large parts of the professional army have been lost.  It seems that the Russians are limited to three strategies. One strategy will be continued missile terror attacks on Ukrainian civilian areas. These attacks will occur particularly because Ukraine will have no defense against the supersonic Kh-22 missile for several months until a few Patriot anti-missile systems are installed and personnel trained for these. The second strategy is to take out of storage and refurbish old Soviet-era tanks and artillery equipment, but this might be technically difficult.

The third – main – strategy will be to throw masses of infantry against the AFU lines and to overcome these lines through sheer weight of numbers. This very costly tactic showed some success in Bakhmut and Soledar – success in the sense that the Russian infantry proved its ability to keep pressing despite phenomenal human losses. The Russian political and military commands are able to use this tactic because they are utterly indifferent to losses. Much of the fighting and dying until now has been done by non-Russians from the east, such as Buryats and Udmurts, and from the south, such as Dagestanis, Ingushetians, and Kadyrovite Chechens. These are supplemented by Russian social marginals from prisons and from the poverty-stricken peripheries of Russia, along with soldiers from the so-called Luhansk and Donetsk Republics and by collaborators and civilians forcibly conscripted from other Ukrainian areas of occupation. Therefore the ethnic-Russian middle class of the large cities has been relatively untouched by mobilization, and the Kremlin has been able to manage any incipient anti-war sentiment.

What Happens Next? 

In sum, the stage is set for major bloodbaths this spring. There are some important imponderables. On the Ukrainian side, the list is shorter. The Ukrainians are fighting for their survival against explicit genocide by Russia, so for the Ukrainians, submission is not an option. Their determination to fight remains high, and their morale and capacity are improved by the latest tranche of offensive weapons. The Ukrainians are neither surprised nor intimidated by the ongoing Russian mobilizations, and some Ukrainian military experts think that steel will prevail over flesh, as was the usual historical pattern. The main imponderable could be Western fatigue over the longer term, though Ramstein-9 has indicated that fatigue is not an issue for the present.

The list of imponderables is longer on the Russian side. First, it is not certain that recruitment will be successful and that the army will be able to provide the soldiers adequately with personal equipment, vehicles, and weapons. A related question is whether Russia will be able to ramp up its war industries in view of sanctions on components and the general decline of the economy.  Another factor is that ammunition stocks are considerably depleted and might not be replaceable.

A final, and perhaps key, imponderable on the Russian side is a political one concerning the conduct of the war itself. If the AFU blocks the Russian land bridge to Crimea, this will mean that, after a year of heavy fighting and expense, the Putin regime shall have gained almost nothing.  At the least, this will cause recrimination within the Russian public, army, and government. Putin’s authority will inevitably decline, though by how much remains to be seen.

But overall, it appears that Ramstein-9 has started to make a complete Ukrainian military victory both thinkable and plausible. 

 

 

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On 1/23/2023 at 9:36 AM, Herodotus said:

Tell us, why do you keep buying their bullshit? 

Nothing has changed. Hip gobbles up anything from his favorite MSM sources without question and especially if it depicts Trump or Conservatives in a negative light. Fact is, Ukraine never had a shot in hell of winning a war against Russia so our feckless politicians have decided to dump military hardware and billions of tax payer money over there to be siphoned off for their own slush while we eagerly await the upcoming articles a few years from now mentioning how billions of dollars and military hardware are "unaccounted for." The worst part of this is that the sanctions imposed on Russia have only strengthened them, left Europe hurting, and exposed many of our allies as not giving two shits about our restrictions. This whole proxy war has been a disaster from day one and you can believe almost nothing from the Western Media.

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Sack "The Buffalo Range's TRUSTED News Source!"

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Parler @NYexile

 

 

 

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6 hours ago, SackMan518 said:

Nothing has changed. Hip gobbles up anything from his favorite MSM sources without question and especially if it depicts Trump or Conservatives in a negative light. Fact is, Ukraine never had a shot in hell of winning a war against Russia so our feckless politicians have decided to dump military hardware and billions of tax payer money over there to be siphoned off for their own slush while we eagerly await the upcoming articles a few years from now mentioning how billions of dollars and military hardware are "unaccounted for." The worst part of this is that the sanctions imposed on Russia have only strengthened them, left Europe hurting, and exposed many of our allies as not giving two shits about our restrictions. This whole proxy war has been a disaster from day one and you can believe almost nothing from the Western Media.

Which MSM sources do I gobble up?
Maybe you'll do what Philly and Rich won't and try to make up an answer.

BTW I'm the one who called it a Proxy War with Ukraine being the defacto puppet for the US from the start.,

“There he goes. One of God's own prototypes.

A high-powered mutant of some kind, never even considered for mass production.

Too weird to live, and too rare to die.”

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16 hours ago, HipKat said:

Which MSM sources do I gobble up?

Morning-Joe-O.jpg

NPR_logo.png

 

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Sack "The Buffalo Range's TRUSTED News Source!"

“When a well-packaged web of lies has been sold gradually to the masses over generations, the truth will seem utterly preposterous and its speaker a raving lunatic.” ~ Dresden James

Parler @NYexile

 

 

 

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On 1/31/2023 at 3:30 PM, SackMan518 said:

Morning-Joe-O.jpg

NPR_logo.png

 

Nope. Haven't watched either of those in, shit, since late 2021 or early 2022? I don't ever watch any cable news. I DO watch Ch 4 news form Buffalo in the mornings while I'm drinking coffee and stuff but that's it

“There he goes. One of God's own prototypes.

A high-powered mutant of some kind, never even considered for mass production.

Too weird to live, and too rare to die.”

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12 minutes ago, HipKat said:

Nope. Haven't watched either of those in, shit, since late 2021 or early 2022? I don't ever watch any cable news. I DO watch Ch 4 news form Buffalo in the mornings while I'm drinking coffee and stuff but that's it

You should read the Western Journal. Follow me for more Pro Tips!

Sack "The Buffalo Range's TRUSTED News Source!"

“When a well-packaged web of lies has been sold gradually to the masses over generations, the truth will seem utterly preposterous and its speaker a raving lunatic.” ~ Dresden James

Parler @NYexile

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, SackMan518 said:

You should read the Western Journal. Follow me for more Pro Tips!

Sorry, my Telegram account got deleted

“There he goes. One of God's own prototypes.

A high-powered mutant of some kind, never even considered for mass production.

Too weird to live, and too rare to die.”

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Just now, HipKat said:

Sorry, my Telegram account got deleted

They got a website.

Sack "The Buffalo Range's TRUSTED News Source!"

“When a well-packaged web of lies has been sold gradually to the masses over generations, the truth will seem utterly preposterous and its speaker a raving lunatic.” ~ Dresden James

Parler @NYexile

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, SackMan518 said:

They got a website.

I never really had one but there's a lot of Android Development groups on there doing a lot of customizing, etc, and other stuff so I'm probably going to sign up

“There he goes. One of God's own prototypes.

A high-powered mutant of some kind, never even considered for mass production.

Too weird to live, and too rare to die.”

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