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So you want to give Ukraine Abrams, Bradleys, Leopards, and Patriots?


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Yeah about that, also about all the tens of thousands of shells we are giving Ukraine.  I'll say, okay but what about.  No, not whataboutism, just what about because there are things you need to consider.  Now lets pretend that all the stuff we are giving Ukraine reaches the front because here I am not going to discuss that only about 30 to 40 percent of what we supply Ukraine with gets to the Front line with about half of what we give them being droned, missiled, and bombed to bits by Russia and about 10 to 25 percent ending up on the international arms market and in the hands of terrorists and criminals.  However, that is not my what about.  No, these are actually real concerns:

M1A1 Abrams/Leopards/unused French Tanks (some still with the white flags of their former crews still attached: Without doubt, the Abrams is the best tank in the world.  However, what is it that makes it such a damn good weapons system? Engineering, design, technology, munitions? Yes, absolutely.  Pound for pound its the greatest of its generation.  However, its only the best tank in the world with American crews.  Yeah, our tankists spend hundreds of hours operating it, and training on how to operate it, deploy it to maximum effect, to use it as part of our combined arms doctrine.  For Ukraine? Well, its going to take a year or two before Ukrainian crews will be able to operate it effectively.  Hell, in the hands of the Egyptians, Saudis, Iraqis, and others the Abrams has proved to be nowhere near as good as it was in our two invasions of Iraq.   Then you have have the logistics and supply train for it.  Oh its a great tank, but it guzzles gas, it needs ammo, and it needs a logistics network to service its engine and various parts.  You also need to use it correctly.  In an environment where artillery has not been suppressed, where you do not enjoy air superiority let alone air supremacy (which means you cannot remove your foe's planes from the air let alone his drones, you have a very vulnerable system.  I won't even say much about the Leopards and le tanquettes the Krauts and Frogs are sending because they have performed embarrassingly badly in Syria and Iraq. 

Patriots: Ukraine is truly the first 21st century war.  Yes, the middle east saw all sorts of drone strikes first and cruise missiles, but it is in Ukraine that we see that drones have the upper hand over SAMs.  Lets do some very simple math.  I know Zelensky has told fairy tales of a guy with a shotgun, a babushka with a can of tomatoes, and what not shooting down supersonic missiles and drones, but putting the nonsensical bullshit that even Lit is too embarrassed and intelligent to post, lets talk dollars.  In most cases Every time Russia loses a drone they are out 25,000 dollars.  To shoot down that drone? Ukraine fires a rocket that costs 10 to 20 times that.  In recent weeks we have seen Russia launch combined air attacks to very effective results.  First they send the drones and decoy rockets.  Ukraine hits the decoys, the drones bomb their air defenses and the Russian cruise missiles are heroically intercepted by Ukrainian infrastructure.  The Patriots? Well, if recent history is any indication, the Houthis from Yemen have used their drones very effectively to destroy Saudi targets protected by Patriots.

Logistics, the tyrant of war: Wanna know why Germany lost world war two despite having better weapons than the US, Brits, or anyone else? Simple, they had almost a libertarian view when it came to ammunitions.  They had dozens of different combat tanks, dozens of different weapons that used dozens of different types of munitions.  At least the USSR and USA? They used weapons that were known for their interchangibility.  This kept logistics simple.  Ukraine? If Putin ever does get his head out of his ass and knock down the bridges over the Dniepr, Ukraine is going to have all sorts of useless weapons with all sorts of ammo that they can't use and that need gas.  Further, Abrams are too heavy for most of the bridges in eastern Ukraine, that were purposely built to be insufficient to hold heavier western tanks.

Ultimately, our weapons to Ukraine may make you feel better about yourself, but they won't do all that much to change the tide of the war or shorten it.

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