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Another 370,000 Workers Quit in November, Total Quits Rate Now 4.5 Million


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LOL. Why do I even work anymore? Food prices are about to hit another major up spike too due to supply chain increases but we can talk about that in another thread.

Another 370,000 Workers Quit in November, Total Quits Rate Now 4.5 Million

 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the November job openings and turnover data today [DATA HERE] showing 370,000 workers quit their jobs in November bringing the quits rate now to 4.5 million people.

From the report, “Quits increased in several industries with the largest increases in accommodation and food services (+159,000); health care and social assistance (+52,000); and transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+33,000).”

 

Over the 12 months ending in November 2021, hires totaled 74.5 million and separations totaled 68.7 million, yielding a net employment gain of 5.9 million for 2021. However, while the unemployment rate drops with fewer people working, the employment picture overall appears to be tenuous.

The FRED personal savings rate for Americans overall [DATA HERE] has been dropping rapidly since March 2021, the last federal COVID employment bailout injection. All of the federal assistance has created massive data skews in the savings rate, as federal subsidies gave an artificial boost to the U.S. savings rate.

It appears that the aggregate American worker is now using their savings, created by COVID bailouts, to offset the massive inflation created by the COVID bailouts.  The net result is a workforce going into negative savings each month as inflation driven expenses (energy, fuel, food) are higher than earnings.  This is an unsustainable situation.


There is obviously a large retirement factor in the quits rate; however, it does appear the vaccination mandate is also a major influence. Additionally, when talking about people living paycheck-to-paycheck, rapid inflation almost always causes job-jumping for workers to get higher wages.

According to the BLS data, in November the job openings rate decreased in small establishments with 10-49 employees. This could be due to employees returning to small business, and/or there are fewer small businesses around to be hiring.

The hires rate rate increased in very large employers with 5,000 or more employees. However, the quits rate increased in both small businesses with 1-9 employees and in medium-sized businesses (1,000 to 4,999 employees). The I9 contracted workers are also leaving small and mid-size employers.

Then comes a significant aspect, “both the layoffs and discharges rate -and the total separations rate- increased in the larger establishments with 1,000 to 4,999 employees.” This could indicate mid-sized businesses are starting to see contractions in sales or demand and lowering their payrolls. This outlook would match the productivity drops we noted last month.

(DECEMBER CTH) – “The value of all products and services generated increased by 1.8 percent.  However, the labor cost of generating that small amount of added value increased by 7.4 percent.  The difference between those two numbers is a drop in productivity of 5.2% over the entire quarter.

This is the largest quarterly drop in productivity since 1960!

The Biden administration will blame the drop in productivity on a lack of material to produce the end product (ie. the COVID excuse).  Which means employed people were sitting around waiting for goods to arrive and being less productive.   There is a small amount of that which might be true.  However, it is not the biggest factor, at least not on this scale.  Keep in mind we are talking about both goods and services.

The more likely cause of such a massive decline in productivity is a genuine decline in demand.  In the aggregate, consumers needed less goods and services.  This likelihood aligns with the diminished and softened retail sales figures recently noted.   It is a simple cause and effect.  When gasoline, energy, and essential products like food cost more, consumers have less money for other stuff.  Demand for the non-essential products drop.” (more)

When we look at the macro picture, things look a lot clearer than the financial pundits talk about.

After the March 2021 peak of savings rate (massive fed spending bill), sometime around June of 2021, the U.S. economy overall started to jam up.  In May of 2021 the first round of massive inflation started, what the Fed and White House called “transitional”, but we noted it wasn’t.

Then, new home housing starts, and contracts for new homes yet to be built suddenly stopped; while at the same time (June/July 2021) new permits for construction dropped.  From that moment forward prices for food, fuel and energy related products started a massive upward spike.  Despite the Fed and administration “transitional” talking points, the prices continued to climb and inflation was growing month over month.

The middle class and working class started to really feel the inflationary pain in the second half of 2021.  It was not the Delta variant driving this economic pain, it was inflation and the collapse of disposable incomes.  By the time we go to November 2021, suddenly the low employment gains shocked the financial pundits.  A few weeks later, we saw sales data from November go down, and retail hiring for the holiday season was non-existent.

Take a look at the timeline in hindsight. At exactly the wrong time last year, September 2021, Joe Biden mandated vaccination for all U.S. workers.   The economic data was sending signals that things were tenuous, but no one was paying attention.  The already tenuous economy and labor pool (economists ignoring) was hit with an ultimatum of forced vaccination or get fired.

It’s not a single factor leading to this quits rate data.  As you can see, there is a snowball effect inside the data.   Wages earned, including any pay raises, have been chewed up by much higher inflation.   When we look back upon this economy in a year, I am quite certain we will identify the inflection point as June of 2021.  That’s when things peaked and started to go down.

Keep in mind, inflation has a big impact on job turnover.  When people feel inflation, they look for pay raises.  Larger employers are slower to respond to pay raises driven by worker needs, and many have very structured pay raise guidance.

Ex. if a worker needs a raise (immediate inflation driven), and the boss or organization is less responsive (structured pay raise schedule or performance review), the worker can get a faster pay raise by quitting their employer and going to work at a higher entry wage rate with another firm.   If the job market is tight, the worker can make much more doing this.  This is called job-jumping.  In my opinion, this is a big factor right now.

So, what does the labor market look like in your town?  What is going on in/around your community and local economy?   Are you seeing a drop in spending habits overall for the people around you?   The workforce hunkering down, forced to spend savings to survive and dealing with massive rising costs, will ultimately lead to less employment.

What do you see around you?

CBS-Gas-Prices-Lower-Your-Expectations-I

Eureaka-Biden-inflation.jpg

 

 

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24 minutes ago, SackMan518 said:

LOL. Why do I even work anymore?

Somebody has to pay for those unemployment benefits.  Thank you for your service.  :niterider:

 

30 minutes ago, SackMan518 said:

What do you see around you?

More people hanging around the house throughout the day, less congestion on the roads.  Stores are still busy, so people are still buying stuff.  Employers are begging for help.  One of the sanitation services in my area isn't able to pick up trash on time due to staffing, there's a lot of people crying about that.  Crime is up, if its not bolted down its getting stolen.  :niterider:

 

 

 

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27 minutes ago, f8ta1ity54 said:

Why don't the largest employers in this country, who made the largest profit margins since the 1950s pay their employees more?

What's the least amount of money per hour you'd be willing to get out of bed for?

You really should start a business. Take out huge loans, put in the 20 hour work days to get it started, take that huge risk. Then start hiring workers that don't have a nickel invested like you do and pay them well above your industry standard.When you go out of business in a short time just mix up another batch of Kool-aid and ponder what went wrong while you lose your initial investment and what ever collateral you used to get the loan you can't afford to pay back.

When you post this stupid crap, I have to wonder if you have ANY education whatsoever or you have been indoctrinated by some Marxist ignorant public school "teacher".

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7 minutes ago, Very Wide Right said:

You really should start a business. Take out huge loans, put in the 20 hour work days to get it started, take that huge risk. Then start hiring workers that don't have a nickel invested like you do and pay them well above your industry standard.When you go out of business in a short time just mix up another batch of Kool-aid and ponder what went wrong while you lose your initial investment and what ever collateral you used to get the loan you can't afford to pay back.

When you post this stupid crap, I have to wonder if you have ANY education whatsoever or you have been indoctrinated by some Marxist ignorant public school "teacher".

If you can only stay in business by exploiting workers paying them 7.25, your business is trash. I see the range economists haven't realized that labor can exert its power as a market force.

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1 minute ago, f8ta1ity54 said:

If you can only stay in business by exploiting workers paying them 7.25, your business is trash. I see the range economists haven't realized that labor can exert its power as a market force.

Spew all the Marxist propaganda you like. Like I said, put your money where your mouth is and take the risk of starting a business then overpay employees and see what happens

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1 minute ago, Very Wide Right said:

Spew all the Marxist propaganda you like. Like I said, put your money where your mouth is and take the risk of starting a business then overpay employees and see what happens

Hey fuck head, is walmart a small business? Is mcdonalds a mom and pop shop?

These are some of the LARGEST employers in the country, with billions in profits. They pay their employees as little as possible.

 

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1 minute ago, f8ta1ity54 said:

Hey fuck head, is walmart a small business? Is mcdonalds a mom and pop shop?

These are some of the LARGEST employers in the country, with billions in profits. They pay their employees as little as possible.

It's not my job to educate you. You have absolutely no understanding of the financial responsibilities that a business faces at all. People like you find it easier to just shout stupid slogans and make demands. 

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9 minutes ago, Very Wide Right said:

It's not my job to educate you. You have absolutely no understanding of the financial responsibilities that a business faces at all. People like you find it easier to just shout stupid slogans and make demands. 

Oh yea? You know you are financially responsible for the employees who work 40 hrs a week and still need government assistance, right?

So instead of a company with billions in profits paying their employees a living wage, you'd rather subsidize those employees instead with YOUR tax dollars? Which by the way, in the case of Walmart, many of their employees spend government benefits at WALMART.

LoL

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45 minutes ago, f8ta1ity54 said:

If you can only stay in business by exploiting workers paying them 7.25, your business is trash. I see the range economists haven't realized that labor can exert its power as a market force.

Labor - not government.  Even Ayn Rand wasn't against labor unions.

Some positions don't justify a 'living wage' - it's awful, but true.   They are starter positions where you must advance.  Often by showing reliability you will get a raise.    

Government subsidizing, either by assistance or wage laws, only creates a dependent voter class. 

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3 minutes ago, FanBack said:

Labor - not government.  Even Ayn Rand wasn't against labor unions.

Some positions don't justify a 'living wage' - it's awful, but true.   They are starter positions where you must advance.  Often by showing reliability you will get a raise.    

Government subsidizing, either by assistance or wage laws, only creates a dependent voter class. 

Who gives a shit about Ayn Rand?

Why do you believe some positions do not justify a living wage?

So you don't want the voter class to vote for people that have their best interest in mind, but instead serve the will of capital?

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I feel like there's a better way for Americans to live. Our government and the large corporations including the health care system have gotten way out of control and have crushed many Americans.

I don't have all the answers, but I think a revamp of our government is in order, and would be a great start.

They are the head of the snake that has poisoned our country

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4 minutes ago, Philly'sFinest said:

I feel like there's a better way for Americans to live. Our government and the large corporations including the health care system have gotten way out of control and have crushed many Americans.

I don't have all the answers, but I think a revamp of our government is in order, and would be a great start.

They are the head of the snake that has poisoned our country

It is the corporations that have always corrupted our government. Take money out of politics. Do not allow legalized bribery known as lobbying to exist. Do not let elected officials hold individual stocks.

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We also have a significant portion of the workforce deciding to stay on the sidelines.  The Pandemic gave people time to reassess their net gains by working and when they took a good look at the cost of daycare for their kids, many made the decision to not reenter the workforce because their net gain wasn't worth the time and putting their kids in daycare.

This group included a lot of part time retail and service industry workers and many of these people were hourly wage earners.

I don't blame them.  It's hard to commit to a $15/hr job when you have to pay someone $10/hr to watch your kid.

We've also seen quite a bit of movement in the labor force.  Workers used to be more tied to one particular job due to their healthcare benefits.  As companies have backed away from full coverage, there are fewer costs/risks of moving from one job to another when it comes to healthcare coverage.

Finally, if the job you always wanted becomes available, why wouldn't you quit the one you have and move to the new opportunity?

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5 minutes ago, foster said:

We also have a significant portion of the workforce deciding to stay on the sidelines.  The Pandemic gave people time to reassess their net gains by working and when they took a good look at the cost of daycare for their kids, many made the decision to not reenter the workforce because their net gain wasn't worth the time and putting their kids in daycare.

This group included a lot of part time retail and service industry workers and many of these people were hourly wage earners.

I don't blame them.  It's hard to commit to a $15/hr job when you have to pay someone $10/hr to watch your kid.

We've also seen quite a bit of movement in the labor force.  Workers used to be more tied to one particular job due to their healthcare benefits.  As companies have backed away from full coverage, there are fewer costs/risks of moving from one job to another when it comes to healthcare coverage.

Finally, if the job you always wanted becomes available, why wouldn't you quit the one you have and move to the new opportunity?

Stop making sense! They just want the cogs back in the machine so they can go to Dave & Busters again. 

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2 hours ago, f8ta1ity54 said:

Who gives a shit about Ayn Rand?

Why do you believe some positions do not justify a living wage?

So you don't want the voter class to vote for people that have their best interest in mind, but instead serve the will of capital?

Sigh.  I don't 'believe',, the market dictates that.  It is not economically justified. 

And being dependent on the government is not in your best interest.   Ever. 

 

 

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1 minute ago, FanBack said:

Sigh.  I don't 'believe',, the market dictates that.  It is not economically justified. 

And being dependent on the government is not in your best interest.   Ever. 

People are not going back to work. What the fuck do you think the market is saying? The market is so lopsided towards big business, thats the problem.

How is making corporations pay higher wages going to make people dependent on government? It's holding corporations accountable.

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2 minutes ago, FanBack said:

It's hard to argue with a Marxist pamphlet.   Sigh.

It's hard to argue because you have no good reason to keep wages low and people in poverty. What good does it serve to keep millions of people in poverty and millions of people in debt? What good does that serve society?

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6 minutes ago, f8ta1ity54 said:

It's hard to argue because you have no good reason to keep wages low and people in poverty. What good does it serve to keep millions of people in poverty and millions of people in debt? What good does that serve society?

Whatever - a Keynesian worldview sees wealth as not generated, but existing.   Like a mineral.   There is no explanation as to how wealth is generated.  It is viewed as a finite pie to be redistributed.  True capitalists don't want poor people.   They can't hire you nor buy your shit.     

 

Now , on another note - Stop lying about your status.   Please get vaccinated or be honest about your status.   

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7 minutes ago, FanBack said:

Whatever - a Keynesian worldview sees wealth as not generated, but existing.   Like a mineral.   There is no explanation as to how wealth is generated.  It is viewed as a finite pie to be redistributed.  True capitalists don't want poor people.   They can't hire you nor buy your shit.     

Now , on another note - Stop lying about your status.   Please get vaccinated or be honest about your status.   

Wealth is created by labor. The minerals don't extract themselves from the ground, turn themselves into a product, and distrube themselves. 

We live on a planet with finite resources. Capitalism can't continue year over year profits forever. It's impossible.

Capitalism can only function with a massive impoverished class. We are getting to the point where people can't pay for their basic necessities. We have thousands homeless and millions only one paycheck away from the streets. With a working class working to pay off debts.

What? I'm fully vaxxed. Which I have said before.

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2 minutes ago, f8ta1ity54 said:

Wealth is created by labor. The minerals don't extract themselves from the ground, turn themselves into a product, and distrube themselves. 

We live on a planet with finite resources. Capitalism can't continue year over year profits forever. It's impossible.

Capitalism can only function with a massive impoverished class. We are getting to the point where people can't pay for their basic necessities. We have thousands homeless and millions only one paycheck away from the streets. With a working class working to pay off debts.

What? I'm fully vaxxed. Which I have said before.

Boo....fucking....hoo.  LOL :classic_laugh:

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