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Bills are listed at 4-1 odds to land J.J. Watt.

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How do they come up with these numbers?


There's a prop bet for virtually everything in sports these days. 

Will Aaron Rodgers be the Green Bay Packers' starting quarterback in Week 1? 

Will Deshaun Watson remain with the Houston Texans?

Will Tom Brady apologize for throwing the Lombardi Trophy?

And, of course, which will be J.J. Watt's next team. Right now, the Bills are listed as the second choice at 4-1 by BetOnline.ag. But when the site listed its odds before Watt was even released by the Houston Texans, the Bills were not listed at all. Asked what kind of money the site was seeing wagered on the Bills, a spokesman said "some."

So, how do they come up with these odds anyway? Obviously, the goal is to entice those so inclined to lay down their money, but the site also needs enough bet overall to avoid losing money when it pays off the winning bettors. 

And Dave Mason, the sports book brand manager for BetOnline.ag, said he remains closely attuned to media reports to quickly adjust and keep the action coming in. 

“J.J. Watt, even though it seemed like he played his last game as a Texan, was still big news late last week and we wanted to be up with odds on his next team so we threw about a dozen teams that we felt would be in the hunt," Mason said Monday. "The Steelers, who were the sentimental choice to play with his brothers, along with Green Bay – in the state he grew up in and played college ball – immediately stood out as frontrunners and we took bets right away.

"We added the Bills at 4-1 as they seemed to get some buzz over the weekend and might be the perfect place for J.J. Watt now that they are legit contenders. The biggest move has been the Browns from 14/1 to 5/1 based on money coming in.

"These type of odds move pretty quickly based on media hype so we have to be on top of it faster than our players.”

Here are the current odds for Watt's next team:                        

Pittsburgh Steelers                    5/2

Buffalo Bills                              4/1

Green Bay Packers                   4/1

Cleveland Browns                     5/1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers             11/2

Baltimore Ravens                      9/1

Indianapolis Colts                      10/1

San Francisco 49ers                  10/1

Dallas Cowboys                        12/1

New England Patriots                12/1

Los Angeles Rams                    14/1

Las Vegas Raiders                    18/1

Miami Dolphins                         18/1

Tennessee Titans                      18/1

Seattle Seahawks                      20/1

New York Giants                       25/1

For what it's worth, here is NFL writer Peter King's top six landing spots for Watt, according to his column Monday: Buffalo, Cleveland, Kansas City, Tennessee, Indianapolis and Green Bay.


“There he goes. One of God's own prototypes.

A high-powered mutant of some kind, never even considered for mass production.

Too weird to live, and too rare to die.”


Twitter: @HKTheResistance


HipKat, on *** other h***, is genuine, unapoli***tically nasty, and w**** his hea** on his ******. jc856

I’ll just forward them to Bridgett. comssvet11

Seek help. soflabillsfan

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