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Mail-in Voting Will Not Prevent a Trump Victory

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Mail-in Voting Will Not Prevent a Trump Victory

 

Most people supporting President Trump in this election are confident that he will get more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016, but they fear that fraudulent mail-in ballots will steal or delay the election results. After analyzing state voting laws -- and the 2016 electoral map -- I feel confident in saying that neither is a likely outcome.

First, only ten states mail ballots to every voter on their registration rolls. Those states have faced justified criticism for risking their results' integrity because voter rolls are outdated and make verifying identity difficult. But under the Electoral College system, this issue won't affect the outcome of the election. Eight of those ten states went blue in 2016, and the other two -- Utah and Arizona -- are likely to stay red. Vote by mail will not affect the outcome of the election because it is mostly done in states that Trump does not need to win. 

The second group of concern is the 14 states, including Ohio, who mailed absentee ballot applications -- not ballots -- to all of their "registered voters."

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Unlike blanket mailing of ballots, this system allows for voter verification and provides the state's Board of Elections with an accurate count of ballots to expect on Election Day -- which is handy if there are issues with mail delivery. 

In all, 35 of the 45 states allowing absentee voting are doing so with a ballot request requirement. Widespread use means most election boards will have accurate information -- like who received a ballot before the election and how many are still in circulation -- when verifying their state's results.   

So, unless the number of outstanding absentee ballots is greater than the margin of victory for Trump, they will not matter.  

The third issue is the map itself. Due to the thin margin of victory in 2016, a big concern for supporters is the current situation in battleground states: 

Trump won six -- Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida, and New Mexico -- while losing five -- Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, Maine, and Colorado. Current polling offers multiple paths to victory for Trump assuming fair election results and retaining the red wall.   

Trump's is well-positioned to pick up Minnesota and New Hampshire, meaning he could lose Pennsylvania and Michigan yet still win handily with 284 electoral votes. He could lose Wisconsin's ten votes and still have 274. He could lose Florida and Pennsylvania but win Michigan and still have 271. 

As things stand, Trump has a clear path to victory. But, in my humble opinion, it’s much more likely that Trump wins big than loses -- even with “polls” showing Biden up by 15%.

I find that the data shows that Trump is likely keep all his 2016 states and win Minnesota and New Hampshire. Additionally, it is highly likely that Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia are in play. This could land him 35 states and an overwhelming victory in the popular vote. Here is why:  

 

• Republican Support: 77% (2016) vs. 96% (projected 2020). That's 10,000,000 votes!

• Evangelical Christians: 81% (2016) vs. 90% (projected 2020)

• Hispanics: 28% (2016) vs. 36.5% (projected in 2020). A potential swing of 8.8 million from 2016.

• Catholics: 45% (2016) vs. 53% (projected 2020). A potential swing of 12.4 million votes from 2016.

• Black vote: 8% (2016) vs. 15% (projected 2020). A potential swing of 6.8 million votes from 2016. 

 

Any of these projections coming half-true would guarantee the President a victory. A combination would lead to a landslide.  

On the flip side, Democrats that lost in 2016 have struggled to grow their voter base in large part because they focus on marginal groups and those with low turnout. 

Democrat support for Antifa and defunding the police has alienated significant portions of key swing demographics like African Americans, Hispanics, union workers, and suburban women. Enthusiasm has been further dampened with the nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court. Securing a 6-3 conservative majority for the next 20 years one week before the election will do that.

What is Joe Biden's base? He has no base. That is why nobody shows up when he appears in public.

So, the map itself looks favorable for Trump despite what the mainstream media tells you. 

Finally, there's concern about what an extended delay of the election results could mean for Trump. 

Due to fear surrounding the virus, absentee requests have skyrocketed. As of October 6th, over 50% of all voters in Ohio had applied for a ballot, with 2,000,000 having been mailed out. Election officials are now projecting that 60% of votes will be by mail.

But interestingly enough, fears about mail-in voting are causing people to turn their ballots in immediately. That means it is highly likely we won’t see hundreds of thousands of ballots still in circulation come November 4th, even though Ohio law allows them to be counted up to ten days after the election. 

Many have gone further in ensuring their vote by participating in an in-person early voting period. One top election official told me that we would likely know who has won Ohio very early after polls close on Election Day because 98% of the ballots will have been counted beforehand.

Using the map again, we can see that the other states that allow extended voting periods line up in a way that indicates a clear outcome. 

Only 15 states are counting ballots after election day (Michigan’s court just struck down their rule). Nine are red states that Trump won, and only one -- Pennsylvania -- is close enough for votes counted after the election to make a difference. 

So, Pennsylvania is the likely troublemaker in delaying an outcome -- but only for three days, not weeks. Except that we agreed earlier that Trump may not need Pennsylvania because he is well-positioned to win Minnesota and New Hampshire. 

Checkmate. 

Despite what the media will tell you, this election is straightforward. 

If Trump voters turn out in the numbers they're projected to, no amount of leftist shenanigans can undo the people's will. They know it, too. Watch any left-leaning morning show and look how angry everyone is at NBC, CBS, and CNN, to name a few. If Biden were actually winning by 15%, they wouldn't have that tone. 

They know he's done for. We just need to do our job, turn out, and vote Republican down-ballot because we know that any Republican is better than a communist Democrat-Socialist.

Donald Trump Wink GIF

 

 

 

 

 

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Sack "The Buffalo Range's TRUSTED News Source!"

“When a well-packaged web of lies has been sold gradually to the masses over generations, the truth will seem utterly preposterous and its speaker a raving lunatic.” ~ Dresden James

Parler @NYexile

 

 

 

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‘Trump does what he says’: Muslims abandon Biden, back president

 

President Trump, whose Middle East plan is winning support from Arab nations, is gaining strong support from Muslim leaders and their followers who believe that the Democrats haven't delivered on years of promises, according to a new survey of Islamic leaders.

In a shocking turnaround, 61.48% of the 109 Muslim leaders who “represent two million voters” plan to vote for Trump. That is a slight edge over their 2012 vote for Barack Obama.

The survey of the leaders was done by the Washington correspondent for Aksam Gazetesi, a Turkish news site. It suggested that the Muslim leaders' support for former Vice President Joe Biden was 30.27%.

 

Those results represent a dramatic flip of the Muslim vote, which for years has sided with the Democrats.

Aksam's Washington correspondent Yavuz Atalay shared his results with Secrets and said, “It’s about the trustworthy. Obama, Clinton said good words, but they did not do what they said. Biden is doing same things. Good words but no action. Trump does what he says.”

For example, the poll asked the leaders for their reaction when Biden used the Arabic phrase for “God willing.” Just 10% thought Biden was sincere.

 

Atalay wrote, “According to 109 opinion leaders representing approximately 2 million Muslim voters in the states participating in the study, the new candidate Joe Biden could not break the distrust of the Muslim voters who traditionally voted for Democrats, which started with Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election, but rather strengthened it. The voting address of the Muslim electorate seems to be in favor of Republican President Donald Trump.”

The informal poll echoes one of several Middle East countries that showed support for Trump’s Middle East plan, including 79% of Saudi Arabia.

Well Done Applause GIF by The Sultan

 

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Sack "The Buffalo Range's TRUSTED News Source!"

“When a well-packaged web of lies has been sold gradually to the masses over generations, the truth will seem utterly preposterous and its speaker a raving lunatic.” ~ Dresden James

Parler @NYexile

 

 

 

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Sack "The Buffalo Range's TRUSTED News Source!"

“When a well-packaged web of lies has been sold gradually to the masses over generations, the truth will seem utterly preposterous and its speaker a raving lunatic.” ~ Dresden James

Parler @NYexile

 

 

 

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No One Tells You About Polls that Project a Big Win for Trump

 

Most election polls include a question that pollsters rarely talk about: whom do you expect to win.

Yet, the answer to this question is more accurate than any other election forecasting tool. By a lot.

Finding the answers to this question is tricky. You have to get hold of the raw datasets and do the math yourself. Pollsters do not publish expectation data.

 

The most recent analysis of expectation data comes from early October, around the first debate. Are you ready for it?

As of October 3, 56 percent of likely voters expected President Trump to win reelection, and only 40 percent expected Biden to win, according to Gallup, via Western Journal.

Most people expect Trump to win despite polls showing Biden in the lead. And this split is not unusual.

The Science Behind the Numbers
Back in 2012, researchers could still publish their findings without fear of being canceled. Two researchers, Justin Wolfers of the University of Michigan and David Rothschild of Microsoft Statistical Research, published a paper on the accuracy of polling’s expectation question.

 

Here’s a summary of their findings:

Our primary dataset consists of all the state-level electoral presidential college races from 1952 to 2008, where both the intention and expectation questions are asked. In the 77 cases in which the intention and expectation question predict different candidates, the expectation question picks the winner 60 times, while the intention question only picked the winner 17 times. That is, 78% of the time that these two approaches disagree, the expectation data was correct.

What’s more, expectation data is more accurate than voter intention data in predicting the margin of victory:

We find that relying on voters’ expectations rather than their intentions yield substantial and statistically significant increases in forecasting accuracy. An optimally-weighted average puts over 90% weight on the expectations-based forecasts. Once one knows the results of a poll of voters’ expectations, there is very little additional information left in the usual polls of voting intentions. Our findings remain robust to correcting for an array of known biases in voter intentions data.

The science is settled: voter expectation is a better predictor of outcomes than voter intent.

 

Expectations Have Been Rock Solid Since July
Despite fluctuations in polls of voter intent, polls of election expectations have been remarkably consistent since at least July.

Fifty-six percent of respondents expect President Trump to win, and only 40 percent expect Biden to win.

This consistency seems particularly important this year. According to Gallup, President Trump came into 2020 with a 49 percent approval rating, the highest of his presidency. By July, his favorability was down to 38 percent due to the economic effects of Coronavirus.

Even when Trump’s popularity was at its lowest level, 56 percent of voters expected Trump to be re-elected.

 

Why Is Voter Expectation More Accurate than Voter Intent?
Researchers believe three factors make expectation polls more accurate than polls of voter intent.

  1. The expectation question increases the sample size by a factor of 5. When I ask you how you intend to vote, I learn the intentions of precisely one person. But when I ask you whom you expect to win, you mentally “poll” at least five of your closest friends, the yard signs and bumper stickers you see, and the relative frequency with which you hear the competing candidates’ names. Your brain does this factoring in milliseconds and reports the results. “Trump,” you say.
  2. You can more accurately predict which of your friends and relatives will vote than the best voter turnout models. Did you know that the Gallup organization invented the election polling system? Did you know that Gallup quit doing election polls decades ago? Did you know Gallup quit doing election polls because it was too hard to figure out who is likely vote and who is not? Likely-voter modeling is still the weakest link in the process. But people know their close associates well. I know several vocal Biden supporters who are unlikely to vote. Two of them are not even registered. They have Biden stickers on their cars. They had Hillary stickers four years ago. And they readily admit they’ve never registered to vote. That’s the kind of information that pollsters can’t discern.
  3. Expectations breed outcomes because late-deciding voters vote for the candidate they expect to win, not the candidate they prefer. To a degree, expectations can be self-fulfilling prophecies. Some politically motivated polling firms try to manipulate the vote through a cognitive bias known as the Bandwagon Effect or Social Proof. This bias, simply stated, says that, free to do anything, most people will do what they see other people doing. There’s a lot of science to back this up. This is why Democrat pollsters try to convince you that the Democrat is going to win.

 

Trump has a 78 Percent Chance of Winning
Based on the expected outcome theory of elections, Donald Trump has a 78 percent chance of winning. We can reach this conclusion because, when voter intent and voter expectation polls disagree, the voter expectation poll wins 78 percent of the time.

We can also predict Trump’s margin of victory in the popular vote at something around 55 percent.

Donald Trump Wwe GIF

 

 

 

 

 

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Sack "The Buffalo Range's TRUSTED News Source!"

“When a well-packaged web of lies has been sold gradually to the masses over generations, the truth will seem utterly preposterous and its speaker a raving lunatic.” ~ Dresden James

Parler @NYexile

 

 

 

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Sack "The Buffalo Range's TRUSTED News Source!"

“When a well-packaged web of lies has been sold gradually to the masses over generations, the truth will seem utterly preposterous and its speaker a raving lunatic.” ~ Dresden James

Parler @NYexile

 

 

 

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