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HipKat

Cook Political Report has done a decent analysis of 2016 vs 2020

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The Gamble

It's a decent analysis on Trump's apparent strategy, which relies heavily on his base securing a second term for him, what that requires and how its shaping up this time around.

Long before COVID-19 or the economic collapse that followed in its wake, President Trump gambled his re-election prospects on the assumption that his base would be enough to ensure his re-election. Since the first days of his presidency, Trump rewarded those who already liked or voted for him and ignored — or just outright alienated — everyone else.

They identify four main requirements for Trump's strategy to be successful:

• An enthusiastic and engaged GOP base
• A deeply flawed candidate
• Independents supporting him
• A third party candidate who could disrupt critical states

Obviously Trump has #1 in the bag. His base voters are incredibly enthusiastic about supporting him. On this issue he enjoys a clear advantage over Biden.

That's where the good news appears to end though. Biden is not Hillary. He is not nearly as flawed as Hillary. He hasn't been subject to the two decade long smear campaign that Hillary was a target of. There is no BENGHAZI!!!!. There is no FBI criminal investigation. Despite Trump and his supporters non-stop effort to create a stink relating to Hunter Biden it does not appear to have gained any meaningful traction. Most people just don't give a shit (I certainly don't). Moreover, Biden appears to be running a smart, effective campaign.

While Biden's favorability ratings aren't much higher than Hillary's, his unfavorability ratings are significantly better.

Then there is this:
Trump is trailing Biden among independents in the most recent national polling by Fox News, CNN and Pew by 14 to 18 points.

Polling done this week in key swing states by Siena/New York Times finds Trump trailing independent voters by 11 points in Pennsylvania and 25-points in Arizona.

That's a big difference from 2016 when Trump actually carried independents by a small margin. And PA and AZ are pretty damn critical.

And this:
At this point in the 2016 election, 14 percent of registered voters in a Pew poll said they planned to vote for a third-party candidate.

In the end, the non-Clinton/Trump vote was six percent. The most recent Pew poll (Sept. 30-Oct. 5) finds just five percent of voters choosing a third-party candidate. As such, we should expect that third-party candidates will comprise a much smaller percentage of the electorate this year — probably around 3 percent.

Also...

As important, however, is the fact that those 2016 third- party voters and voters who didn’t vote in 2016, lean heavily to Biden now. According to the most recent Pew survey, Biden leads among 2016 third party voters 49 percent to 26 percent (23 points). Biden leads among those who didn’t vote in 2016, 54 percent to 38 percent.

Obviously the more Trump struggles to make any gains with 2016 third party and non-voters, the more he is dependent on turning out his base. That certainly appears to be his strategy but he doesn't seem to have increased support among those who already support him.

On the flip side, Biden has improved in almost every key demographic compared to Hillary. The link contains a good chart illustrating this.

 


“There he goes. One of God's own prototypes.

A high-powered mutant of some kind, never even considered for mass production.

Too weird to live, and too rare to die.”

 

Twitter: @HKTheResistance

 

HipKat, on *** other h***, is genuine, unapoli***tically nasty, and w**** his hea** on his ******. jc856

I’ll just forward them to Bridgett. comssvet11

Seek help. soflabillsfan

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There is Benghazi...it's China/Russia/Ukraine. 

Also look up the seal team 6 saga and what's going on with that. Biden and Obama paid Iran to cover that one up, and the info is out there.

I just saw a Biden campaign ad where he keeps talking about finally holding the wealthy accountable and making them pay their fair share. 

Is that some kind of joke?! Do people actually believe such nonsense when he has 47 years in the government and eight as VP and didn't do it?

Once again, Joe is a complete fraud and deserves not one single vote from Americans.

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2 hours ago, Philly'sFinest said:

There is Benghazi...it's China/Russia/Ukraine. 

Also look up the seal team 6 saga and what's going on with that. Biden and Obama paid Iran to cover that one up, and the info is out there.

I just saw a Biden campaign ad where he keeps talking about finally holding the wealthy accountable and making them pay their fair share. 

Is that some kind of joke?! Do people actually believe such nonsense when he has 47 years in the government and eight as VP and didn't do it?

Once again, Joe is a complete fraud and deserves not one single vote from Americans.

Know what else is a fraud? Trump’s finances....


“There he goes. One of God's own prototypes.

A high-powered mutant of some kind, never even considered for mass production.

Too weird to live, and too rare to die.”

 

Twitter: @HKTheResistance

 

HipKat, on *** other h***, is genuine, unapoli***tically nasty, and w**** his hea** on his ******. jc856

I’ll just forward them to Bridgett. comssvet11

Seek help. soflabillsfan

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2 hours ago, Philly'sFinest said:

There is Benghazi...it's China/Russia/Ukraine. 

Also look up the seal team 6 saga and what's going on with that. Biden and Obama paid Iran to cover that one up, and the info is out there.

I just saw a Biden campaign ad where he keeps talking about finally holding the wealthy accountable and making them pay their fair share. 

Is that some kind of joke?! Do people actually believe such nonsense when he has 47 years in the government and eight as VP and didn't do it?

Once again, Joe is a complete fraud and deserves not one single vote from Americans.

Excellent.  Joe must have been saving up all the good stuff for the last 47 years.  LOL.  Biden voters are SUCKERS.

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39 minutes ago, HipKat said:

Know what else is a fraud? Trump’s finances....

Maybe you should actually do a better job reading the entire report, because it paints quite a different story than the catchy headline.

Obviously a task too tough for you

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1 hour ago, Philly'sFinest said:

Maybe you should actually do a better job reading the entire report, because it paints quite a different story than the catchy headline.

Obviously a task too tough for you

you keep saying that with the typical zero proof. just the standard MAGAT unsubstantiated assertion.  you make the case if you think is is there.  I wont be holding by breath


lol

 

ECQKgbmW4AAkI5n.jpg:large

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1 hour ago, 212frawk said:

you keep saying that with the typical zero proof. just the standard MAGAT unsubstantiated assertion.  you make the case if you think is is there.  I wont be holding by breath

I just told you to go read it...I already have. 

I know you're too lazy to do it yourself and would rather have me brief you, but the truth is that you would likely criticize it anyway...not worth it to me.

Why don't you go read it like I said and then we'll discuss? 

Kinda weak and lame calling me out when I have proven what I claim over and over again

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57 minutes ago, Philly'sFinest said:

I just told you to go read it...I already have. 

I know you're too lazy to do it yourself and would rather have me brief you, but the truth is that you would likely criticize it anyway...not worth it to me.

Why don't you go read it like I said and then we'll discuss? 

Kinda weak and lame calling me out when I have proven what I claim over and over again

Evidence-free "case". All MAGAT, all the time.  Its your case to prove dipshit.  I'm not doing your work for you.

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lol

 

ECQKgbmW4AAkI5n.jpg:large

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13 minutes ago, 212frawk said:

Evidence-free "case". All MAGAT, all the time.  Its your case to prove dipshit.  I'm not doing your work for you.

How can you dispute what I'm saying if you haven't done the work...which I've already informed you that I have done. 

That being said...I guess I'll do your work for you.

Trump filed extensions in 2016 and 2017 and pre paid 5.2 million in taxes. He ended up overpaying and left the money to cover future payments which leads us to the $750 number.

The article even states that there was nothing illegal and he followed tax laws that were passed by career crooks/swamp creatures like Biden. 

So when Trump said he paid millions...he was actually being completely factual. 

It's things like this that show blatant attempts to smear Trump by the mainstream media, and it's embarrassing that others run with it.

Now go do your work unless you would just like to accept what I have just told you.

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27 minutes ago, Philly'sFinest said:

How can you dispute what I'm saying if you haven't done the work...which I've already informed you that I have done. 

That being said...I guess I'll do your work for you.

Trump filed extensions in 2016 and 2017 and pre paid 5.2 million in taxes. He ended up overpaying and left the money to cover future payments which leads us to the $750 number.

The article even states that there was nothing illegal and he followed tax laws that were passed by career crooks/swamp creatures like Biden. 

So when Trump said he paid millions...he was actually being completely factual. 

It's things like this that show blatant attempts to smear Trump by the mainstream media, and it's embarrassing that others run with it.

Now go do your work unless you would just like to accept what I have just told you.

I've already addressed this shit elsewhere. 

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lol

 

ECQKgbmW4AAkI5n.jpg:large

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7 minutes ago, 212frawk said:

I've already addressed this shit elsewhere. 

Obviously, he never read it so maybe he should do the work, and go read it


“There he goes. One of God's own prototypes.

A high-powered mutant of some kind, never even considered for mass production.

Too weird to live, and too rare to die.”

 

Twitter: @HKTheResistance

 

HipKat, on *** other h***, is genuine, unapoli***tically nasty, and w**** his hea** on his ******. jc856

I’ll just forward them to Bridgett. comssvet11

Seek help. soflabillsfan

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1 minute ago, HipKat said:

Obviously, he never read it so maybe he should do the work, and go read it

He's a fan of the big lie, just say something over and over again hoping ppl eventually believe it.  


lol

 

ECQKgbmW4AAkI5n.jpg:large

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3 minutes ago, 212frawk said:

He's a fan of the big lie, just say something over and over again hoping ppl eventually believe it.  

The problem is, he’s one of the people that always believes it


“There he goes. One of God's own prototypes.

A high-powered mutant of some kind, never even considered for mass production.

Too weird to live, and too rare to die.”

 

Twitter: @HKTheResistance

 

HipKat, on *** other h***, is genuine, unapoli***tically nasty, and w**** his hea** on his ******. jc856

I’ll just forward them to Bridgett. comssvet11

Seek help. soflabillsfan

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7 minutes ago, HipKat said:

Obviously, he never read it so maybe he should do the work, and go read it

Typical loser response that deflects

You guys are not smart...not even a little bit

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4 minutes ago, 212frawk said:

He's a fan of the big lie, just say something over and over again hoping ppl eventually believe it.  

LOL.  Nope.  That's nothing but projection.  That's what you cats do.  Always accusing others of your own sins.  Tsk.  Tsk.

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Just now, Philly'sFinest said:

Typical loser response that deflects

You guys are not smart...not even a little bit

LOL.  Looks like the losers are "ganging up" on you.  Frick and Frack. I'm confident you can handle yourself against those two. :classic_biggrin:

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1 minute ago, Thebowflexbody said:

LOL.  Nope.  That's nothing but projection.  That's what you cats do.  Always accusing others of your own sins.  Tsk.  Tsk.

stop stealing my lines.


lol

 

ECQKgbmW4AAkI5n.jpg:large

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3 hours ago, 212frawk said:

stop stealing my lines.

Yeah, right! Like he’s able to come up with any of his own


“There he goes. One of God's own prototypes.

A high-powered mutant of some kind, never even considered for mass production.

Too weird to live, and too rare to die.”

 

Twitter: @HKTheResistance

 

HipKat, on *** other h***, is genuine, unapoli***tically nasty, and w**** his hea** on his ******. jc856

I’ll just forward them to Bridgett. comssvet11

Seek help. soflabillsfan

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