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Trump Still Doing Great in the REAL Polls

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Why Secret Trump Voters Are The Crucial Bet For Shifting Election Odds

 

After the party conventions, President Donald Trump’s odds of winning re-election peaked at 48% on online sportsbook Bovada. After the Supreme Court vacancy, first debate smackdown, and then Trump’s COVID diagnosis, Joe Biden’s betting odds rose by over 10 points. Meanwhile, polls continue to be all over the place - due, perhaps, to the strong possibility that a significant part of the electorate won’t discuss their vote.

“Odds for Biden actually spiked after Tuesday night’s debate,” according to VegasElectionOdds.com, “primarily on the strength that he didn’t actually keel over at the podium on live television. Biden, it must be said, handled the fight against Trump better than most expected.”

Once Trump was diagnosed with COVID and admitted to Walter Reed Military Hospital, all bets were off - literally. “We suspended all betting Friday when he was admitted,” Bovada political oddsmaker Pat Morrow told me. “We resumed wagering around 4 pm this afternoon” - that was Monday, as Trump returned to the White House - “with Biden -175, Trump +145 – roughly Biden 61%/Trump 39%.”

 

Bovada’s odds are the strongest for Trump. The Real Clear Politics betting average, as of Tuesday, calls it Biden 64%/Trump 35.1%.

When it comes to polls, the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average has Biden up 9 points nationally, and 4.4 points in battleground states. But different polls feed completely different narratives. The most recent poll from NBC/Wall Street Journal has Biden up 14 points, while Trump-bashing CNN has Biden up 16 points. Rasmussen, which had Trump narrowly in the lead three weeks ago, now has Biden up 12 points. Biden landslide? Not so clear.

 

Three other larger polls have the race as a toss-up. Zogby has Biden up by only 47% to 45% - two points. Investor’s Business Daily has Biden up by 2.7% - 48.6% to 45.9%. And the Democracy Institute - which forecast Trump’s 2016 upset and Brexit - has Trump up a point, 46% to 45%. All three results lay all within their respective margins of error. Democracy Institute shows Trump with a narrow but significant 4-point lead in battleground states Florida, Minnesota, and New Hampshire.

RCP excluded Zogby and Democracy Institute from their average, skewing it bigly toward Biden.

At the same time, other surveys show Trump doing better than the RCP average would indicate. Trump voters hold far more enthusiasm for their candidate than the Democrats do theirs. A poll from the ABC News/Washington Post, both anti-Trump, nonetheless found Trump voters more than twice as enthusiastic about their candidate. Democrats tend to be anti-Trump more than pro-Biden.

In September, Gallup measured Trump’s favorability at 44%, while Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll has ranged between 45-53%. This range matches the high point of Trump’s presidency and about the same approval President Obama had in the weeks before his 2012 re-election. And according to Gallup at the end of September, 56% of voters expect Trump to win, while only 40% expect Biden to prevail.

What gives? Quite possibly secret Trump voters aka shy Trump voters - people who will vote for Orange Man but aren’t likely to tell friends, family, or pollsters because of the risk of ostracism, losing their jobs, or getting attacked by social justice warrior mobs. CNN and the New York Times doubt their very existence. FiveThirtyEight flatly says, “There aren’t secret Trump voters.”

My own intuition and conversations with people around Las Vegas and the country in recent weeks directly contradicts this mainstream narrative. So does a wide range of research.

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The libertarian Cato Institute found 62% of Americans feel uncomfortable sharing their political views. Cato found “strong liberals” - aka people who watch CNN, read the Times, and pay attention to FiveThirtyEight - to be the only group where a majority felt comfortable. The difference between “strong liberals” and centrist Democrats, according to Cato, “demonstrates that political expression is an issue that divides the Democratic coalition between centrist Democrats and their left flank.”

CloudResearch found Republican voters more than twice as reluctant to share their preference as Democrats. Rasmussen found a similar trend. According to the Democracy Institute, it’s even higher. While 87% of Biden supporters said they were “comfortable with relatives, friends, coworkers knowing how you vote,” only 22% of Trump voters felt comfortable That is a four-fold difference.

In at least five battleground states - Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada - GOP voter registration is far outpacing Democrats. In the first three states, Republicans are registering over twice as many voters.

At the same time, a wide range of polls show Trump earning higher percentages of Black and Hispanic voters than he did in 2016. Popular hashtags like #Blexit, #WalkAway, and #DemExit all speak to the impending defection, and perhaps explain attempts by Democrats and the mainstream news media to label Trump and his voters as white supremacists. And a recent Harvard University poll found that 21% of voters surveyed say they could change their vote by election day.

How about an unscientific poll of truckers? “The general consensus from callers to my radio show,” writes Fox Across America host Jimmy Failla, “is that Trump signs outnumber Biden signs by about 25 to 1 in all 50 states. The truth is, there are a ton of parallels between this race and 2016. Perhaps the most damning one for the Biden campaign is that the polls tell one story but our eyes tell another.”

We shall see - but bettors must keep one eye on the following. Just like in 2016, Trump again appears to hold the advantage in the Electoral College due to having strong support in more states. So if he gets the popular vote within about 2% again, like 2016, he’s got a strong chance of being re-elected.

In 2016, Trump outperformed the RCP average in battleground states by an average of four points. That’s about what he’s trailing in that average right now. So is 4 points a good over/under for secret Trump voters in 2020?

“Trump is probably outperforming” the polls, Bovada’s Morrow says. Patrick Basham, director of the Democracy Institute polls, believes there are even more secret Trump voters in 2020 than in 2016. I agree with both of them. The question for bettors is, how many more?

 

 

 

 

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Sack "The Buffalo Range's TRUSTED News Source!"

“When a well-packaged web of lies has been sold gradually to the masses over generations, the truth will seem utterly preposterous and its speaker a raving lunatic.” ~ Dresden James

Parler @NYexile

 

 

 

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Sack "The Buffalo Range's TRUSTED News Source!"

“When a well-packaged web of lies has been sold gradually to the masses over generations, the truth will seem utterly preposterous and its speaker a raving lunatic.” ~ Dresden James

Parler @NYexile

 

 

 

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Something is just not right with these polls.  I'm not predicting a Trump win, but something is amiss.  Conservatives and other smart people need to get out and vote for President Trump.  The future looks pretty fucking depressing should he lose.

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lol Keep thinking that.

Meanwhile, back in Truthville... I'll highlight the fuck-scenes for you

 

In the race for the White House, former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump 52 - 42 percent among likely voters in a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll released today. Those numbers are unchanged from a September 2nd national poll when Biden led Trump 52 - 42 percent.

"Voters think Biden is smarter, more honest, more level headed, and cares more about Americans than the president. And that, in part, translates into a ten-point lead," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.

Democrats back Biden 96 - 2 percent, independents back him 49 - 41 percent, and Republicans back Trump 91 - 7 percent.

Ninety-four percent of likely voters who selected a candidate for president say their minds are made up, while 5 percent say they might change their minds.

VOTING IN 2020

Looking ahead, 47 percent plan to vote in person on Election Day, while 34 percent plan to vote by mail/absentee ballot, and 15 percent plan to vote at an early voting location.

Among voters who say they plan to vote in person on Election Day, 57 percent support Trump while 35 percent support Biden. However, among voters who plan to vote by mail/absentee ballot, 68 percent back Biden while 26 percent support Trump. Among those who plan on voting at an early voting location, 65 percent support Biden, while 34 percent support Trump.

THE 2020 ELECTION

Just 30 percent of likely voters think the country will know the winner of the presidential election on Election Night, while 63 percent say they think we will not know.

"Don't hold your breath on Election Night. Nearly two-thirds of likely voters don't anticipate going to bed on November 3rd with the election settled," added Malloy.

Sixty-six percent of likely voters say they are either "very" or "somewhat" concerned that a foreign government may try to interfere in the 2020 presidential election, while 33 percent say they are either "not so concerned" or "not concerned at all."

BIDEN VS. TRUMP: PERSONAL TRAITS

Biden receives a mixed favorability rating, as 45 percent have a favorable opinion and 45 percent have an unfavorable opinion. President Trump has a negative favorability rating, as 41 percent have a favorable opinion and 55 percent have an unfavorable opinion.

Likely voters give Biden better scores than Trump on six personal traits, as they say:

  • 49 - 43 percent that Biden is honest, and 59 - 35 percent that Trump is not honest;
  • 50 - 42 percent that Biden has good leadership skills, and 55 - 43 percent that Trump does not;
  • 58 - 36 percent that Biden cares about average Americans, and 53 - 45 percent that Trump does not;
  • 56 - 37 percent that Biden is level headed, and 61 - 36 percent that Trump is not level headed;
  • 65 - 30 percent that Biden is intelligent, and 52 - 44 percent that Trump is also intelligent;
  • A split 49 - 47 percent that Biden does not share their values, and 56 - 41 percent that Trump does not share their values.

BIDEN VS. TRUMP: THE ISSUES

Likely voters were asked who would do a better job handling five issues:

  • On handling the economy, Trump 49 percent, Biden 48 percent;
  • On handling the military, Biden 49 percent, Trump 46 percent;
  • On keeping you and your family safe, Biden 51 percent, Trump 44 percent;
  • On handling the response to the coronavirus, Biden 55 percent, Trump 39 percent;
  • On handling racial inequality, Biden 56 percent, Trump 36 percent.

"It's a toss-up on who best can manage the economy, but a thumping for Trump on race and who would best handle the coronavirus," added Malloy.

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL

Likely voters give President Trump a negative 43 - 53 percent job approval rating, which is essentially unchanged from a negative 43 - 54 percent job approval on September 2nd. Likely voters give President Trump a mixed 49 - 48 percent approval for his handling of the economy. This is also essentially unchanged from a 49 - 49 percent approval for his handling of the economy earlier this month.

CORONAVIRUS

On his coronavirus response, voters give President Trump a negative 42 - 56 percent approval, similar to the 41 - 57 percent rating on September 2nd.

A majority of likely voters (57 percent) say they don't think President Trump has been telling the truth about the coronavirus to the American people, while 37 percent think the president has been telling the truth.

"Was the president leveling with Americans in the early stages of the coronavirus? Likely voters say... not likely," said Malloy.

Given a choice between President Trump and CDC scientists and asked who is trusted more on information about the coronavirus, likely voters say 70 - 21 percent that they trust CDC scientists more than President Trump.

Nearly eight out of ten (79 percent) of likely voters say they believe that masks or face coverings are effective in slowing the spread of the coronavirus, while 19 percent say they don't. There are gaps among political parties, as Republicans say 60 - 36 percent mask and face coverings are effective, Democrats say 96 - 3 percent they are effective, and independents say 78 - 21 percent they are effective.

WILDFIRES

A majority of likely voters, 58 - 37 percent, say that climate change is a factor in making the wildfires on the West Coast more severe. Along party lines, Democrats say 93 - 4 percent that climate change is a factor, independents say 54 - 41 percent it's a factor, and Republicans say 70 - 22 percent that climate change is not a factor in making the wildfires more severe.

1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Joe Biden the Democrat or Donald Trump the Republican?

                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Biden                52%     7%    96%    49%    46%    58%    61%    36%
Trump                42     91      2     41     47     38     37     60
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      2      2      -      1      1
DK/NA                 4      2      2      8      5      4      2      3
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Biden                63%    45%    55%    49%    39%    50%    45%    83%    63%
Trump                32     46     44     49     55     48     52     10     31
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      -      -      2      -      1      -      -
DK/NA                 4      6      1      1      4      2      3      7      6
 
                     2020 VOTING METHOD Q2.........
                     In     Mail/Absnt    Early Vot
                     Person Ballot        Location
 
Biden                35%    68%           65%
Trump                57     26            34
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1             -
DK/NA                 6      4             1
 

TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Joe Biden the Democrat or Donald Trump the Republican?

                           
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                                     SMONE        
                     Biden   Trump   ELSE    DK/NA        
 
Sep 23, 2020         52      42       1       4 
Sep 02, 2020         52      42       2       3       
 
 

1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    Biden  Trump
 
Mind made up         94%    95%    92%
Might change          5      4      5
DK/NA                 2      1      2
 
 

2. (If haven't already voted) Thinking about the 2020 election, do you think you will vote in person on Election Day, vote early by mail or absentee ballot, or vote at an early voting location?

                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
In person            47%    69%    30%    45%    51%    44%    39%    54%
Mail/Absentee ballot 34     21     49     34     29     39     41     32
Early voting loc     15      9     18     18     17     14     17     13
WON'T VOTE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 3      1      3      3      3      3      3      2
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
In person            43%    55%    46%    39%    53%    44%    49%    46%    39%
Mail/Absentee ballot 41     27     31     44     31     38     35     21     46
Early voting loc     15     14     18     15     13     15     14     26     13
WON'T VOTE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 1      3      5      1      2      2      2      7      3
 
 

3. Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            45%     6%    87%    40%    40%    50%    57%    30%
Unfavorable          45     88      6     45     50     40     38     63
Hvn't hrd enough      7      5      6     11      6      8      2      5
REFUSED               3      2      1      5      4      1      3      2
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            43%    38%    52%    48%    33%    45%    39%    70%    50%
Unfavorable          40     49     41     48     58     51     54     18     28
Hvn't hrd enough     15      9      4      4      5      3      4     11     20
REFUSED               2      4      3      1      4      1      2      1      1
 

TREND: Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                     LIKELY VOTERS..............
                                     Hvn't
                     Fav     Unfav   HrdEn   REF
                     
Sep 23, 2020         45      45       7       3
Sep 02, 2020         45      48       6       2
 
 

3a. Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? COMBINED WITH: (If favorable/unfavorable q3) Do you have a strongly or somewhat favorable/unfavorable opinion?

                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Strongly favorable   29%     2%    63%    22%    24%    34%    36%    21%
Smwht favorable      16      4     24     17     15     16     21      9
Smwht unfavorable     8      7      4     13     10      6      9      9
Strongly unfavorable 36     81      2     32     39     34     29     54
Hvn't hrd enough      7      5      6     11      6      8      2      5
REFUSED               3      2      1      6      5      2      3      2
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Strongly favorable   13%    19%    41%    39%    20%    32%    26%    48%    26%
Smwht favorable      31     18     11      8     13     13     13     20     24
Smwht unfavorable    18      8      4      5     11      7      9      3     10
Strongly unfavorable 23     41     37     43     47     44     45     15     18
Hvn't hrd enough     15      9      4      4      5      3      4     11     20
REFUSED               2      5      3      1      4      1      2      2      1
 

TREND: Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? COMBINED WITH: (If favorable/unfavorable) Do you have a strongly or somewhat favorable/unfavorable opinion?

                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                     Strngly Smwht   Smwht   Strngly Hvn't
                     Fav     Fav     Unfav   Unfav   HrdEn   REF
                     
Sep 23, 2020         29      16       8      36       7       3
Sep 02, 2020         29      15      11      35       6       4
 
 

4. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            41%    89%     3%    39%    43%    39%    34%    58%
Unfavorable          55     10     95     54     53     57     64     39
Hvn't hrd enough      2      -      2      4      1      3      1      2
REFUSED               2      1      1      3      3      1      2      1
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            30%    44%    42%    48%    50%    48%    49%    13%    30%
Unfavorable          66     51     55     49     47     49     48     81     64
Hvn't hrd enough      3      3      2      2      1      2      2      3      5
REFUSED               1      2      1      1      1      1      1      2      1
 

TREND: Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                     LIKELY VOTERS..............
                                     Hvn't
                     Fav     Unfav   HrdEn   REF
                     
Sep 23, 2020         41      55       2       2
Sep 02, 2020         41      56       1       2
 
 

4a. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? COMBINED WITH: (If favorable/unfavorable q4) Do you have a strongly or somewhat favorable/unfavorable opinion?

                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Strongly favorable   34%    79%     2%    27%    36%    32%    27%    50%
Smwht favorable       7      9      1     11      7      6      7      7
Smwht unfavorable     5      4      3      6      7      3      4      5
Strongly unfavorable 49      6     90     47     45     53     60     35
Hvn't hrd enough      2      -      2      4      1      3      1      2
REFUSED               3      1      2      4      3      3      2      1
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Strongly favorable   20%    34%    37%    42%    42%    42%    42%    13%    20%
Smwht favorable       9     10      4      5      8      6      7      -     10
Smwht unfavorable    11      4      5      2      6      3      4      8      4
Strongly unfavorable 56     46     51     47     41     46     44     71     60
Hvn't hrd enough      3      3      2      2      1      2      2      3      5
REFUSED               1      3      1      3      2      1      2      5      1
 

TREND: Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? COMBINED WITH: (If favorable/unfavorable) Do you have a strongly or somewhat favorable/unfavorable opinion?

                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                     Strngly Smwht   Smwht   Strngly Hvn't
                     Fav     Fav     Unfav   Unfav   HrdEn   REF
                     
Sep 23, 2020         34       7       5      49       2       3
Sep 02, 2020         31       9       5      49       1       4
 
 

5. How upset would you be if the candidate you support in the 2020 presidential election lost: very upset, somewhat upset, not so upset, or not upset at all?

                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Very upset           62%    62%    77%    49%    53%    70%    72%    63%
Somewhat upset       18     20     14     19     23     14     19     19
Not so upset          7     10      2      9      7      6      3      6
Not upset at all     11      5      6     19     14      8      4      9
DK/NA                 3      3      1      4      3      2      2      3
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Very upset           50%    54%    74%    70%    54%    77%    66%    59%    50%
Somewhat upset       25     19     15     18     24     15     19     14     18
Not so upset         11     11      3      3      6      4      5      4     13
Not upset at all     14     14      7      8     12      2      7     17     19
DK/NA                 1      3      1      2      4      2      3      6      -
 
                     CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Biden  Trump
 
Very upset           72%    56%
Somewhat upset       16     22
Not so upset          5      8
Not upset at all      6     12
DK/NA                 1      2
 
 

6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?

                     LIKELY VOTERS................................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG Wht
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No     Evang
 
Approve              43%    92%     3%    43%    48%    39%    36%    60%    79%
Disapprove           53      8     96     51     48     58     62     38     19
DK/NA                 3      -      1      6      4      3      2      2      2
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Approve              32%    48%    44%    50%    54%    49%    51%    16%    31%
Disapprove           64     49     55     48     43     50     47     82     62
DK/NA                 4      3      2      2      3      1      2      1      7
 

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?

                     LIKELY VOTERS........
                     App     Dis     DK/NA
 
Sep 23, 2020         43      53       3
Sep 02, 2020         43      54       3
 
 

6a. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? COMBINED WITH: (If approve/disapprove q6) Do you strongly or somewhat approve/disapprove?

                     LIKELY VOTERS................................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG Wht
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No     Evang
 
Approve strongly     34%    81%     2%    29%    36%    33%    28%    51%    70%
Approve smwht         9     11      2     14     12      6      8      8      8
Disapprove smwht      5      6      3      6      4      5      3      3      2
Disapprove strongly  49      3     93     46     44     53     59     35     17
DK/NA                 3      -      1      6      4      3      2      2      2
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Approve strongly     17%    36%    40%    44%    43%    43%    43%    12%    19%
Approve smwht        15     12      4      6     11      6      8      4     12
Disapprove smwht      9      5      3      2      4      2      3      5     11
Disapprove strongly  55     45     51     47     39     47     44     78     52
DK/NA                 4      3      2      2      3      1      2      1      7
 

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? COMBINED WITH: (If approve/disapprove) Do you strongly or somewhat approve/disapprove?

                     LIKELY VOTERS........................
                     APPROVE......   DISAPPROVE.....
                     Strngly Smwht   Smwht   Strngly DK/NA
 
Sep 23, 2020         34       9       5      49       3
Sep 02, 2020         34       9       5      49       3
 
 

7. Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding who to vote for in the election for president: the economy, immigration, health care, climate change, the coronavirus pandemic, racial inequality, law and order, or the Supreme Court?

                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Economy              24%    39%     7%    29%    28%    20%    24%    29%
Immigration           4      5      5      3      4      4      2      4
Health care           8      3     13      7      6     10     10      8
Climate change        6      1     11      7      5      7     10      6
Coronavirus          13      2     24     14     14     13     16     12
Racial inequality    13      2     20     13     10     15      6      6
Law and order        17     31      2     17     16     17     13     22
Supreme Court         8     11      8      5     10      7     12      9
DK/NA                 7      7     10      4      6      8      7      6
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Economy              23%    31%    23%    22%    32%    22%    27%    14%    26%
Immigration           4      3      2      3      4      3      4      5      6
Health care           6     10      6     10      6     11      9      8      7
Climate change        9      4      6      6      6      8      7      1      7
Coronavirus          12      8     18     14     13     13     13     14     12
Racial inequality    29     10     11      4      5      7      6     36     20
Law and order         7     21     14     22     16     21     18      3     11
Supreme Court         5      7     11      9     11      9     10      9      4
DK/NA                 3      6      7      9      6      6      6     10      8
 
                     CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Biden  Trump
 
Economy               8%    45%
Immigration           3      4
Health care          13      2
Climate change       11      -
Coronavirus          24      1
Racial inequality    22      1
Law and order         3     33
Supreme Court         8      9
DK/NA                 8      5
 
 

8. Would you say that - Joe Biden is honest, or not?

                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  49%    12%    88%    44%    45%    53%    63%    36%
No                   43     80      9     46     48     39     31     58
DK/NA                 7      8      4     10      7      8      6      6
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes                  48%    38%    58%    53%    42%    49%    46%    67%    49%
No                   41     53     39     41     52     45     48     25     41
DK/NA                11      9      3      7      7      6      6      8     10
 
 

9. Would you say that - Donald Trump is honest, or not?

                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  35%    79%     2%    31%    36%    34%    29%    52%
No                   59     16     96     61     59     60     68     45
DK/NA                 5      5      2      8      5      6      3      3
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes                  25%    36%    36%    44%    43%    44%    44%     8%    24%
No                   71     55     62     51     53     53     53     85     65
DK/NA                 4      9      2      5      4      2      3      7     11
 
 

10. Would you say that - Joe Biden has good leadership skills, or not?

                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  50%    11%    90%    46%    43%    56%    59%    35%
No                   42     83      6     43     50     36     36     59
DK/NA                 7      6      4     11      7      8      5      6
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes                  52%    45%    56%    48%    39%    48%    44%    76%    58%
No                   38     45     42     46     56     46     51     13     31
DK/NA                 9     10      2      7      5      5      5     11     11
 
 

11. Would you say that - Donald Trump has good leadership skills, or not?

                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  43%    87%     6%    42%    47%    39%    36%    59%
No                   55     12     93     53     50     59     63     39
DK/NA                 3      1      1      5      3      2      1      2
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes                  33%    46%    42%    49%    53%    49%    51%    20%    27%
No                   62     53     58     49     45     50     48     80     70
DK/NA                 5      1      1      2      2      1      2      1      3
 
 

12. Would you say that - Joe Biden cares about average Americans, or not?

                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  58%    24%    90%    57%    53%    62%    71%    44%
No                   36     68      7     35     42     30     25     51
DK/NA                 6      8      3      8      5      7      4      5
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes                  64%    49%    63%    58%    50%    57%    54%    75%    66%
No                   29     42     34     37     45     38     42     16     23
DK/NA                 7      9      3      5      5      4      5      9     12
 
 

13. Would you say that - Donald Trump cares about average Americans, or not?

                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  45%    89%     5%    48%    48%    42%    36%    60%
No                   53      8     94     50     50     56     63     38
DK/NA                 2      3      1      2      3      2      1      1
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes                  40%    45%    43%    49%    53%    51%    52%    15%    34%
No                   57     52     56     48     46     48     47     83     59
DK/NA                 3      3      -      3      2      1      1      1      7
 
 

14. Would you say that - Joe Biden is level headed, or not?

                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  56%    16%    94%    53%    53%    58%    68%    42%
No                   37     74      5     37     41     33     30     52
DK/NA                 7      9      1     10      6      8      3      7
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes                  58%    54%    61%    53%    49%    53%    51%    79%    66%
No                   30     41     36     41     47     42     44     14     21
DK/NA                12      5      3      6      5      6      5      7     13
 
 

15. Would you say that - Donald Trump is level headed, or not?

                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  36%    79%     5%    30%    38%    34%    27%    51%
No                   61     19     94     64     59     63     72     46
DK/NA                 3      2      1      6      4      3      1      2
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes                  23%    34%    37%    46%    41%    44%    42%    16%    24%
No                   73     62     61     52     56     55     56     80     69
DK/NA                 4      4      1      2      3      1      2      3      7
 
 

16. Would you say that - Joe Biden is intelligent, or not?

                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  65%    34%    93%    65%    62%    67%    73%    53%
No                   30     60      5     28     32     27     22     41
DK/NA                 5      6      3      7      6      5      4      6
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes                  71%    62%    68%    61%    59%    62%    60%    81%    74%
No                   24     32     29     35     35     34     34     11     23
DK/NA                 5      6      3      5      6      5      6      7      3
 
 

17. Would you say that - Donald Trump is intelligent, or not?

                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  52%    94%    18%    51%    59%    47%    47%    65%
No                   44      5     78     41     38     49     49     32
DK/NA                 4      1      3      7      3      5      4      3
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes                  45%    57%    51%    58%    62%    55%    59%    26%    46%
No                   52     40     46     38     35     42     38     68     50
DK/NA                 3      3      3      4      3      3      3      6      4
 
 

18. Would you say that - Joe Biden shares your values, or not?

                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  47%    10%    87%    41%    41%    53%    58%    33%
No                   49     88     10     53     55     43     40     64
DK/NA                 4      2      3      6      4      4      2      3
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes                  44%    41%    54%    49%    36%    47%    42%    69%    54%
No                   50     54     44     47     61     50     56     24     39
DK/NA                 6      5      2      4      2      3      3      7      7
 
 

19. Would you say that - Donald Trump shares your values, or not?

                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  41%    89%     3%    38%    46%    37%    35%    57%
No                   56     11     96     55     52     59     63     41
DK/NA                 3      1      1      7      2      4      2      2
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes                  29%    43%    44%    48%    51%    48%    49%    11%    28%
No                   67     54     55     49     47     50     49     84     66
DK/NA                 3      3      1      3      1      2      2      5      6
 
 

20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling the economy?

                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              49%    95%     9%    51%    56%    43%    41%    62%
Disapprove           48      3     89     46     42     54     57     36
DK/NA                 2      2      2      3      2      3      2      2
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Approve              38%    56%    48%    52%    59%    50%    55%    24%    41%
Disapprove           59     43     51     46     40     47     44     75     56
DK/NA                 3      1      1      2      1      3      2      1      3
 

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling the economy?

                     LIKELY VOTERS........
                     App     Dis     DK/NA
 
Sep 23, 2020         49      48       2
Sep 02, 2020         49      49       2
 
 

21. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling the economy: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?

                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Trump                49%    96%     6%    52%    56%    43%    41%    62%
Biden                48      3     93     42     41     54     56     34
DK/NA                 3      2      1      6      4      3      3      3
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Trump                41%    54%    48%    52%    60%    50%    55%    22%    44%
Biden                53     41     52     46     36     48     42     78     52
DK/NA                 6      5      -      2      4      2      3      -      4
 

TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job handling the economy: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?

                     LIKELY VOTERS........
                     Trump   Biden   DK/NA
 
Sep 23, 2020         49      48       3
Sep 02, 2020         48      48       4              
 
 

22. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling the response to the coronavirus: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?

                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Trump                39%    84%     1%    40%    44%    35%    34%    56%
Biden                55     10     97     53     50     60     62     40
DK/NA                 5      5      1      8      6      4      4      5
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Trump                28%    43%    40%    45%    51%    45%    48%    12%    25%
Biden                67     52     58     48     44     51     48     85     69
DK/NA                 5      6      2      7      5      4      4      3      6
 
                     REGION...................   DENSITY............
                     NEast  MWest  South  West   City   Suburb Rural
 
Trump                31%    37%    44%    41%    31%    34%    58%
Biden                65     55     51     55     63     61     37
DK/NA                 3      8      5      5      6      5      5
 

TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job handling the response to the coronavirus: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?

                     LIKELY VOTERS........
                     Trump   Biden   DK/NA
 
Sep 23, 2020         39      55       5
Sep 02, 2020         40      56       5      
 
 

23. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling racial inequality: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?

                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Trump                36%    82%     2%    32%    39%    34%    29%    53%
Biden                56     11     95     57     51     61     64     42
DK/NA                 7      6      2     11      9      6      7      5
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Trump                23%    38%    39%    42%    46%    43%    45%    15%    19%
Biden                68     53     57     51     46     53     50     80     70
DK/NA                 9      9      4      6      8      4      6      5     11
 

TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job handling racial inequality: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?

                     LIKELY VOTERS........
                     Trump   Biden   DK/NA
 
Sep 23, 2020         36      56       7
Sep 02, 2020         36      58       6 
 
 

24. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling the military: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?

                     LIKELY VOTERS................................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG Mltry
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No     HsHld
 
Trump                46%    91%     5%    48%    53%    41%    38%    63%    56%
Biden                49      6     92     46     44     54     59     33     43
DK/NA                 4      3      3      5      3      5      3      4      2
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Trump                42%    49%    46%    50%    58%    50%    54%    14%    36%
Biden                53     45     53     47     38     47     43     82     57
DK/NA                 5      6      1      3      4      3      4      4      7
 
 

25. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - keeping you and your family safe: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?

                     LIKELY VOTERS................................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG Mltry
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No     HsHld
 
Trump                44%    90%     3%    47%    50%    39%    38%    61%    51%
Biden                51      5     95     47     45     56     59     35     44
DK/NA                 5      4      2      6      4      5      4      3      5
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Trump                35%    47%    44%    50%    57%    49%    53%     9%    31%
Biden                58     48     54     47     39     48     44     80     63
DK/NA                 7      5      2      3      4      3      3     11      6
 
 

26. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling the response to the coronavirus?

                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              42%    87%     4%    41%    46%    38%    35%    57%
Disapprove           56     11     96     55     51     60     63     41
DK/NA                 3      2      -      4      3      2      2      2
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Approve              33%    45%    40%    47%    52%    46%    49%    15%    32%
Disapprove           67     53     59     49     46     52     49     85     66
DK/NA                 -      2      1      4      1      2      2      -      3
 
                     REGION...................   DENSITY............
                     NEast  MWest  South  West   City   Suburb Rural
 
Approve              34%    40%    45%    43%    33%    38%    59%
Disapprove           65     55     52     55     66     59     39
DK/NA                 1      5      3      1      2      3      2
 

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling the response to the coronavirus?

                     LIKELY VOTERS........
                     App     Dis     DK/NA
 
Sep 23, 2020         42      56       3
Sep 02, 2020         41      57       3
 
 

27. Do you think that President Trump is helping or hurting efforts to slow the spread of the coronavirus?

                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Helping              40%    83%     3%    40%    44%    36%    33%    56%
Hurting              54      9     95     52     50     58     61     38
DK/NA                 6      8      2      8      7      6      6      6
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Helping              30%    46%    39%    45%    49%    47%    48%    13%    30%
Hurting              64     51     56     48     45     47     46     83     68
DK/NA                 6      3      5      7      6      6      6      4      2
 
                     REGION...................   DENSITY............
                     NEast  MWest  South  West   City   Suburb Rural
 
Helping              33%    40%    41%    42%    30%    36%    58%
Hurting              61     53     52     53     64     58     35
DK/NA                 6      7      6      5      6      6      7
 

TREND: Do you think that President Trump is helping or hurting efforts to slow the spread of the coronavirus?

                     LIKELY VOTERS........
                     Helping Hurting DK/NA
 
Sep 23, 2020         40      54       6
Sep 02, 2020         39      55       7
 
 

28. Do you think that President Trump has been telling the truth about the coronavirus to the American people, or don't you think so?

                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes/Telling truth    37%    81%     3%    35%    40%    35%    33%    53%
No                   57     13     96     57     56     59     64     42
DK/NA                 5      6      2      8      4      6      3      5
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes/Telling truth    22%    42%    39%    44%    46%    45%    46%    13%    20%
No                   73     51     59     51     50     50     50     84     68
DK/NA                 5      8      2      6      4      4      4      3     12
 
                     REGION...................   DENSITY............
                     NEast  MWest  South  West   City   Suburb Rural
 
Yes/Telling truth    32%    35%    42%    37%    29%    33%    55%
No                   64     62     53     55     64     64     39
DK/NA                 4      3      6      8      6      3      6
 
 

29. Who do you trust more on information about the coronavirus: President Trump or scientists at the CDC?

                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Trump                21%    51%     1%    17%    21%    22%    18%    30%
CDC scientists       70     36     97     73     71     69     75     61
DK/NA                 9     13      2     10      9      9      7      9
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Trump                12%    26%    23%    25%    22%    29%    26%     9%    14%
CDC scientists       82     63     69     66     68     63     66     83     77
DK/NA                 6     11      7      9      9      7      8      8      9
 
                     REGION...................   DENSITY............
                     NEast  MWest  South  West   City   Suburb Rural
 
Trump                18%    21%    22%    24%    15%    18%    35%
CDC scientists       74     71     68     69     78     74     54
DK/NA                 8      8     11      7      8      7     11
 
 

30. When do you think a vaccine for the coronavirus will be widely available to the public: within 2 months, within 6 months, within a year, or longer than that?

                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Within 2 months      10%    18%     2%    11%    11%     9%     6%    14%
Within 6 months      29     40     20     31     33     26     29     36
Within a year        33     20     47     30     32     33     42     28
Longer than that     19     11     28     18     15     23     16     13
DK/NA                 9     12      3     11      9      9      6      9
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Within 2 months      11%     8%    10%    12%    13%    10%    11%     5%    11%
Within 6 months      29     25     30     35     37     30     33     12     23
Within a year        34     33     37     28     30     36     33     42     27
Longer than that     19     26     16     17     12     16     14     29     33
DK/NA                 8      8      7      8      9      8      8     12      5
 
                     REGION...................   DENSITY............
                     NEast  MWest  South  West   City   Suburb Rural
 
Within 2 months       7%    12%    12%     8%     9%     6%    16%
Within 6 months      29     32     27     31     29     32     29
Within a year        34     32     32     33     29     43     26
Longer than that     21     15     20     20     25     14     17
DK/NA                 9      8      9      8      8      6     13
 
 

31. Do you believe that masks or face coverings are effective in slowing the spread of the coronavirus, or not?

                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes/Effective        79%    60%    96%    78%    78%    80%    85%    72%
No                   19     36      3     21     20     18     14     26
DK/NA                 2      5      1      1      3      2      1      3
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes/Effective        82%    74%    79%    83%    77%    76%    77%    90%    86%
No                   17     23     20     13     21     22     21      8     11
DK/NA                 1      2      1      4      2      2      2      2      3
 
                     REGION...................   DENSITY............
                     NEast  MWest  South  West   City   Suburb Rural
 
Yes/Effective        83%    78%    79%    77%    85%    84%    65%
No                   14     21     18     22     13     14     31
DK/NA                 4      1      3      1      1      2      3
 
 

32. Regarding the wildfires in the states of California, Oregon, and Washington, do you think climate change is a factor in making these wildfires more severe, or not?

                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes/A factor         58%    22%    93%    54%    52%    62%    66%    46%
No                   37     70      4     41     42     32     30     48
DK/NA                 6      8      3      5      6      6      5      6
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes/A factor         73%    51%    57%    53%    49%    58%    53%    72%    71%
No                   21     42     38     43     46     37     41     23     21
DK/NA                 6      7      5      5      6      5      5      5      8
 
 

33. Thinking about election night in November of 2020, do you think we will know the winner of the presidential election that night, or don't you think so?

                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes/Will know        30%    32%    28%    32%    35%    25%    27%    26%
No                   63     64     64     60     60     66     67     68
DK/NA                 7      4      7      8      5      9      6      6
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes/Will know        38%    38%    28%    19%    33%    20%    26%    42%    40%
No                   50     57     67     74     62     72     68     51     51
DK/NA                12      5      4      7      4      8      6      6      9
 
 

34. How concerned are you that a foreign government may try to interfere in the 2020 presidential election: very concerned, somewhat concerned, not so concerned, or not concerned at all?

                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Very concerned       39%    16%    70%    28%    34%    42%    43%    31%
Somewhat concerned   27     31     21     31     28     27     29     26
Not so concerned     14     22      6     16     14     15     13     17
Not concerned at all 19     31      4     24     23     15     14     25
DK/NA                 1      1      -      2      1      1      1      1
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Very concerned       27%    33%    46%    46%    32%    39%    35%    56%    41%
Somewhat concerned   33     27     23     27     26     28     27     24     25
Not so concerned     21     13     12     13     16     16     16      7     15
Not concerned at all 19     27     17     13     27     16     21     12     18
DK/NA                 -      1      1      1      -      1      1      1      1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


“There he goes. One of God's own prototypes.

A high-powered mutant of some kind, never even considered for mass production.

Too weird to live, and too rare to die.”

 

Twitter: @HKTheResistance

 

HipKat, on *** other h***, is genuine, unapoli***tically nasty, and w**** his hea** on his ******. jc856

I’ll just forward them to Bridgett. comssvet11

Seek help. soflabillsfan

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Polls don't mean shit.

All I know is that MILLIONS of registered voters stay silent up until Election Day.

It's just a matter of whom they are voting for.

I just turn into the Election ON Election Day and see how it turns out.

Nothing else means shit until then.

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1 hour ago, Thebowflexbody said:

Something is just not right with these polls.  I'm not predicting a Trump win, but something is amiss.  Conservatives and other smart people need to get out and vote for President Trump.  The future looks pretty fucking depressing should he lose.

Yep.  Whoever made those polls might have given Trump the lead in order to convince Trumpsters that they can stay home.  Sounds lame, but I wouldn't put anything past the lazy left.  :niterider:

 


process.jpg

 

Fuck this team

I'll tie a frying pan to my ass so you hurt your penis, you ****ing homo!

Shut the fuck up dark cloud pussy

Anyone who is foolish enough to not be a Buffalo Bills fan can go f*ck themselves with a wooden shovel handle.

image-trump-emoticon.png

also, all that shit in your signature is beyond annoying. just like you.

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1 hour ago, LIBills said:

Polls don't mean shit.

All I know is that MILLIONS of registered voters stay silent up until Election Day.

It's just a matter of whom they are voting for.

I just turn into the Election ON Election Day and see how it turns out.

Nothing else means shit until then.

Very very true but all the MSM polls show a Biden win and they're lying again just like in 2016 when Hillary had a 90+% chance of winning. It's nice to see some polls counterbalancing the PSYOP effort by the left.

"Lay down your guns, there is no need to fight anymore. Biden is sure to win." 

That's the message they want injected into your brain and it's hilarious to see the usual Range dummies believing it all.

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Sack "The Buffalo Range's TRUSTED News Source!"

“When a well-packaged web of lies has been sold gradually to the masses over generations, the truth will seem utterly preposterous and its speaker a raving lunatic.” ~ Dresden James

Parler @NYexile

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Woody said:

Yep.  Whoever made those polls might have given Trump the lead in order to convince Trumpsters that they can stay home.  Sounds lame, but I wouldn't put anything past the lazy left.  :niterider:

Are they really lazy if indeed they are putting this much effort into misleading Republicans?


“There he goes. One of God's own prototypes.

A high-powered mutant of some kind, never even considered for mass production.

Too weird to live, and too rare to die.”

 

Twitter: @HKTheResistance

 

HipKat, on *** other h***, is genuine, unapoli***tically nasty, and w**** his hea** on his ******. jc856

I’ll just forward them to Bridgett. comssvet11

Seek help. soflabillsfan

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1 hour ago, HipKat said:

Are they really lazy if indeed they are putting this much effort into misleading Republicans?

Yup.   :niterider:

 

 


process.jpg

 

Fuck this team

I'll tie a frying pan to my ass so you hurt your penis, you ****ing homo!

Shut the fuck up dark cloud pussy

Anyone who is foolish enough to not be a Buffalo Bills fan can go f*ck themselves with a wooden shovel handle.

image-trump-emoticon.png

also, all that shit in your signature is beyond annoying. just like you.

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55 minutes ago, Woody said:

Yup.   :niterider:

qb GIF


“There he goes. One of God's own prototypes.

A high-powered mutant of some kind, never even considered for mass production.

Too weird to live, and too rare to die.”

 

Twitter: @HKTheResistance

 

HipKat, on *** other h***, is genuine, unapoli***tically nasty, and w**** his hea** on his ******. jc856

I’ll just forward them to Bridgett. comssvet11

Seek help. soflabillsfan

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Listen to Hip, guys. Trump has no shot. Polls are never wrong. How’s Hillary’s re-election going?

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Ed Oliver is my adopt-a-Bill

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51 minutes ago, Thebowflexbody said:

It took too damn long to skip over all that bullshit posted above by a certain someone.  :classic_biggrin:

I don’t post bullshit. :classic_biggrin::classic_biggrin::classic_biggrin:

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4 hours ago, Nuke said:

Listen to Hip, guys. Trump has no shot. Polls are never wrong. How’s Hillary’s re-election going?

Shit, no one knew what Trump was bringing to the White House. Now they do; a complete shit-show that's fucked up everything he's touched this year. I mean every.single.thing. 

Hillary didn't lead in the demographics Biden does, norr by as much. Trump leads in ONE category - uneducated white men. IS that the one you fit into? Seems like it with stupid fucking posts like ^that.

I guess I was  wrong expecting better from you, Nuke. Maybe I need to make up a Stooge with your named on it, too?

 

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“There he goes. One of God's own prototypes.

A high-powered mutant of some kind, never even considered for mass production.

Too weird to live, and too rare to die.”

 

Twitter: @HKTheResistance

 

HipKat, on *** other h***, is genuine, unapoli***tically nasty, and w**** his hea** on his ******. jc856

I’ll just forward them to Bridgett. comssvet11

Seek help. soflabillsfan

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120318790_1290781404603969_2087401661116350790_n.jpg?_nc_cat=102&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=nT2LjbZ1w5wAX8b_VGr&_nc_ht=scontent-ort2-1.xx&oh=d3a47bf0073f579a0eb9264c5e9987a1&oe=5FA80ABC


“There he goes. One of God's own prototypes.

A high-powered mutant of some kind, never even considered for mass production.

Too weird to live, and too rare to die.”

 

Twitter: @HKTheResistance

 

HipKat, on *** other h***, is genuine, unapoli***tically nasty, and w**** his hea** on his ******. jc856

I’ll just forward them to Bridgett. comssvet11

Seek help. soflabillsfan

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7 hours ago, HipKat said:

Shit, no one knew what Trump was bringing to the White House. Now they do; a complete shit-show that's fucked up everything he's touched this year. I mean every.single.thing. 

Hillary didn't lead in the demographics Biden does, norr by as much. Trump leads in ONE category - uneducated white men. IS that the one you fit into? Seems like it with stupid fucking posts like ^that.

I guess I was  wrong expecting better from you, Nuke. Maybe I need to make up a Stooge with your named on it, too?

Your memory seems to be failing you. All we heard about was the only demographic Trump lead Hillary in was uneducated white males. Exactly like Biden. If you want to fall for poll numbers again, go ahead. They could be just as flawed this time. My guess is the Popular  votes will be around what they were last time. About 50/50. Yes I’m aware Trump lost the popular vote. How the electoral vote fall is the question and where last time everyone was saying Trump had no chance (remember Maddow’s  big rant about Trump having no path to the White House) I don’t see anyone doing that this time. Except for one idiot on a football message board, who either knows more then everyone else or is falling for the same trap as he did last time.

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36 minutes ago, Nuke said:

Your memory seems to be failing you. All we heard about was the only demographic Trump lead Hillary in was uneducated white males. Exactly like Biden. If you want to fall for poll numbers again, go ahead. They could be just as flawed this time. My guess is the Popular  votes will be around what they were last time. About 50/50. Yes I’m aware Trump lost the popular vote. How the electoral vote fall is the question and where last time everyone was saying Trump had no chance (remember Maddow’s  big rant about Trump having no path to the White House) I don’t see anyone doing that this time. Except for one idiot on a football message board, who either knows more then everyone else or is falling for the same trap as he did last time.

The failed polling last time was an anomaly. Typically, polling is a lot more accurate. I had a friend in AZ ask how it's possible that Biden has taken the lead in a state that not too many years ago was voting for Sheriff Joe. My reply fits, here.

 

The Trump-aligned Right has made a complete mess out of everything they've touched, but more importantly, I believe people - most people - still believe in honor and morals and those are the 2 traits most lacking in the Trump Administration and those who have attached themselves to him.

To see typically Red states like Florida and Arizona turning purple reflects the above because both are destinations for retirees. People who have, in their wisened years, come to know that honor and morals are the basis of what makes people inherently good.

Every poll shows that people believe Biden is just a better person who has more empathy and cares more about people than Trump and that is Trump's biggest weakness and one he cannot possibly overcome.

This is a good read, you should take the time to look at.

Demographic shifts since 2016 could be enough to defeat Trump. But it's complicated.i
Analysis: Trump's core demographic is declining. Our new interactive tool lets readers test how changes to the U.S. electorate might affect the election.

 

Four years ago, President Donald Trump lost the popular vote by 2.9 million votes and still won the White House thanks to a near-perfect geographic vote distribution that allowed him to capture big Electoral College prizes by razor-thin margins.

The key? Trump's unprecedented 37-point margin among white voters without four-year college degrees, who are especially influential in the upper Midwest.

But as the U.S. becomes more diverse and college-educated, Trump's core demographic is steadily declining. In 2020, noncollege whites are on track to make up about 43 percent of the nation's adult citizens, down from 46 percent in 2016.

Meanwhile, whites with four-year degrees, who are trending blue and increasingly behave like a different ethnic group from noncollege whites, will make up 25 percent of adult citizens, up from 24 percent in 2016. And Black Americans, Latinos, Asians and other nonwhites, historically Democrats' most reliable supporters, will make up 32 percent, up from 30 percent four years ago.

A new interactive collaboration by NBC News and The Cook Political Report finds that if 2016's rates of turnout and support were applied to 2020's new demographic realities, Trump would narrowly lose Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — more than enough to swing the presidency to Joe Biden. And, Trump would lose the popular vote by about four points, roughly double his 2016 deficit.

 

To let readers test their own assumptions about how these kinds of demographic shifts might affect the election, we’ve created an interactive tool that accompanies this article. To estimate the impact of changes in population, turnout and support on the Electoral College, you can use the tool to "swing the vote" and create your own November scenarios.

Right now, in the final stretch, Trump is doing everything he can to fire up his base, and he does have room to grow: In Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where Trump's combined margin of victory was just 77,444 votes, 4.9 million eligible noncollege whites didn't cast ballots in 2016. By contrast, only 1.6 million eligible nonwhites and 1 million eligible college-educated whites didn't vote.

But Trump might need to boost noncollege white turnout by about 5 points — from 55 percent to 60 percent nationally — just to offset the impact of their dwindling share of the electorate and get back to the same 306 electoral votes he won in 2016.

At the moment, Trump's bigger problem is that Biden is winning more noncollege whites than Hillary Clinton did in 2016. The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows Biden losing them by 23 points, whereas exit polls showed Clinton losing them by 37 points. That would be more than enough to offset modest gains Trump has made since 2016 among Hispanics and other nonwhites.

Of course, race and education aren't the only prism through which to examine the changing American electorate. Breaking down the electorate by age, for example, reveals something different: Voters 65 and older, who narrowly supported Trump in 2016, have become a slightly larger slice of eligible voters since 2016 as more Baby Boomers have aged into that category.

However, age isn't as straightforward: To put it gently, plenty of the oldest 2016 voters have since exited the electorate. At the same time, many 18-22 year olds, who overwhelmingly dislike the president, have entered. And today, polls consistently show Biden doing several points better with seniors than Clinton, while Trump's support is concentrated among voters between the ages of 50 and 64.

Using the information above, you can start trying out the tool to see the impact of these changes. But to start, here are six possible scenarios of our own:

 

Six scenarios to swing the 2020 election

1. Biden makes a Sun Belt breakthrough

For years, Democrats have dreamed of breaking Republicans' grip on increasingly diverse and metropolitan Sun Belt states. In this scenario, Biden turns out enough nonwhites and wins over enough college-educated suburban whites to wrest Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Texas from Trump's column (in addition to Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) — for a landslide victory.

2. Trump bounces back with seniors

Today, Biden is performing much better with voters 65 and older than Clinton did four years ago. But if Trump could find a way to get his margins with seniors back to 2016 levels, he could hang on to retiree-heavy battlegrounds like Arizona and Florida. In this scenario, Biden wins the popular vote by a full 3 percentage points but flips only Michigan and Pennsylvania, and Trump prevails by two electoral votes.

3. Biden squeaks by with white college graduates

In the 2018 midterms, Democrats' route to the House majority ran through high-income suburbs populated by white college graduates. If Biden were to replicate those gains, he could prevail, even if Trump matches or slightly exceeds his own 2016 numbers among other groups. In this scenario, Biden narrowly wins by flipping Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nebraska's 2nd District.

4. Biden coalesces the youngest and oldest

Today, Biden enjoys something of a "sandwich" coalition in polls: He's performing best with the youngest and oldest age groups. In this scenario, Biden roughly matches Clinton's share of the vote among voters under 65, but overtakes Trump with much stronger support from seniors. He wins by flipping the senior-heavy states of Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

5. Trump prevails with inroads among nonwhites

One polling bright spot for Trump this year has been stronger support among nonwhite voters — particularly Latinos — than he received in 2016. If he were to combine those gains with 2016-level support among whites, he could actually improve on his showing. In this scenario, Trump holds all 30 states he won in 2016 and even flips Nevada red, narrowly winning the popular vote, too.

6. Biden rebuilds Obama's Midwest "blue wall"

In 2016, Democrats' "blue wall" of supposed Great Lakes strongholds crumbled. But Biden could resurrect the coalition he and former President Barack Obama built if he wins a higher share of white working-class votes than Clinton and restores Black turnout to Obama-era levels. In this scenario, Biden wins all 26 states Obama carried in 2012, including Iowa and Ohio, and picks up Arizona and North Carolina.

 

 

 

 


“There he goes. One of God's own prototypes.

A high-powered mutant of some kind, never even considered for mass production.

Too weird to live, and too rare to die.”

 

Twitter: @HKTheResistance

 

HipKat, on *** other h***, is genuine, unapoli***tically nasty, and w**** his hea** on his ******. jc856

I’ll just forward them to Bridgett. comssvet11

Seek help. soflabillsfan

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BTW, I don't appreciate being called an idiot by one of the few people I've tried tro debate intelligently on here...


“There he goes. One of God's own prototypes.

A high-powered mutant of some kind, never even considered for mass production.

Too weird to live, and too rare to die.”

 

Twitter: @HKTheResistance

 

HipKat, on *** other h***, is genuine, unapoli***tically nasty, and w**** his hea** on his ******. jc856

I’ll just forward them to Bridgett. comssvet11

Seek help. soflabillsfan

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1 hour ago, Nuke said:

Except for one idiot on a football message board, who either knows more then everyone else or is falling for the same trap as he did last time.

THIS! Dude didn't learn a thing from 2016.

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Sack "The Buffalo Range's TRUSTED News Source!"

“When a well-packaged web of lies has been sold gradually to the masses over generations, the truth will seem utterly preposterous and its speaker a raving lunatic.” ~ Dresden James

Parler @NYexile

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, HipKat said:

BTW, I don't appreciate being called an idiot by one of the few people I've tried tro debate intelligently on here...

You haven't ever debated anyone intelligently here because you simply lack the requirements 

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Ol1LA.png

Election Prediction Models: Who Wins?

 

Man…

The election is getting close. After what feels like the longest election cycle in the history of the United State, the Presidential election of 2020 is almost upon us.

With that being the case, there are countless “experts” and pundits out there that think they can accurately predict the outcome

However, most of them don’t really know what they’re doing. They’re taking blind stabs in the dark, hoping to hit something.

The problem with this is that, given the two-party system, they’ve basically got a 50/50 shot at guessing correctly, and, contrary to popular belief, those are pretty good odds when all is said and done.

Very few of these people have a history of correctly picking the election—and after the shocking upset in 2016, a lot of them are either gun-shy or overconfident about their predictive capabilities.

They all thought Hillary would run away with 2016…

They were so sure that they were literally having parties to ring in the election of the first female president before the results were in. However, Donald J. Trump had something to say about that, and that’s why he’s the one working in the Oval Office.

And now, with everything coming out about Hillary Clinton’s plan to use the Trump/Russia collusion story as an angle to win the presidency, we know now that he’s a vetted and LEGITIMATE president to boot.

So… Who’s Going To Win?
But with everything hitting our country at the moment—a pandemic, and economic crisis, AND manufactured racial tension—a lot of the talking heads are going with the “popular” choice right now, which is Joe Biden.

But should they?

Not if they listened to Stony Brook University Professor Helmut Norpoth…

Because if they did, they’d all be predicting Trump’s reelection.


Who is professor Helmut Norpoth, you may ask, and why is he worth listening to when it comes to US presidential elections?

Well, besides being a college professor, Norpoth has been correctly calling every election since 1996, missing only Al Gore vs George W. Bush in 2000.

He was also one of only a handful of pollsters who correctly predicted Trump’s victory in 2016, and his Primary Model, when applied to previous elections, correctly predicted 25 of the last 27 elections, missing only the aforementioned 2000 election and the 1960 election in which John F. Kennedy defeated Richard Nixon.

That’s pretty rarified air…

25 of 27 elections—that’s how good his model is. In 2020, his model has Trump beating Biden by a greater margin than he beat Hillary.

Maybe NOT A Landslide – But Close
Norpoth told Fox News, “The key to the November election is the primaries. The early primaries are giving us a lot of information. Based on that, Donald Trump won them very easily in his party. Joe Biden, the likely nominee for the Democrats, had a great deal of trouble, pulled it together, but on balance is that stronger performance of primaries that gives Donald Trump the edge in November.”

Oh boy…

That’s going to ruffle some feathers.

He points to some of the past problems Creepy Joe had when it came to winning the nomination…

“People have forgotten how Joe Biden did in New Hampshire,” Norpoth told reporters. “He was terrible. He got 8.4% of the vote, which is unbelievable for a candidate with any aspirations of being president.”

So, there you have it…

If things play out as they should, Trump should win the 2020 election pretty handily, winning an estimated 362 Electoral votes to Biden’s 176.

It doesn’t exactly put Trump in the Landslide Victory Hall of Fame, but it’s respectable enough to let him claim total victory.

 

We Are Not Ahead by Double Digits,’ Biden Campaign Manager Reportedly Admits Polls Inflated

 

The Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s campaign manager reportedly admitted that the national public polling numbers, which show Biden overwhelmingly leading President Donald Trump, are inflated.

“Please take the fact that we are not ahead by double digits,” Jen O’Malley Dillon reportedly said during a grassroots summit of the campaign on Friday. “Those are inflated national public polling numbers.”

The video of the live event seems to have been deleted but her comments were posted on Twitter by New York Times reporter Shane Goldmacher.

The Biden campaign and Trump campaign didn’t respond to requests for comments.

This is not the only circumstance Dillon cautioned about the leading position of Biden.

She reportedly said in a three-page memo obtained by Fox News that Trump can still win the November election and the race is “neck and neck” in certain states like Arizona and North Carolina.

“[T]he reality is that this race is far closer than some of the punditry we’re seeing on Twitter and on TV would suggest,” Dillon allegedly wrote in the memo. “[E]ven the best polling can be wrong and that variables like turnout mean that in a number of critical swing states we are fundamentally tied.”

Currently, national polls data overwhelmingly show Trump trails Biden. As of Saturday, the RealClearPolitics average of the polls shows Biden leads Trump with nine percent nationally.

However, the Trump campaign is highly skeptical of the poll.

“In 2016, the ABC News/Washington Post Poll was such a complete disaster that these two … news Organizations changed the numbers prior to the Election. Now these haters are trying the same thing, though on a lesser scale, again. Will have a bigger win than even 2016!” Trump wrote in a Twitter post back on Oct. 11.

The current situation brings about a feeling of deja vu of the 2016 race when polls show Trump trailed Hillary Clinton, the then failed Democratic nominee for the White House.

A study published in August by CloudResearch, an online market research and data collection company, found polls are unable to capture the full extent of support for Trump due to a “shy voter” phenomenon.

The study shows that 11.7 percent of Republican voters fall into the “shy voter” category—meaning they would be reluctant to disclose to pollsters their true preferences for who they would vote for in the presidential election—more than twice as likely as Democrats with a percentage of  5.4.

It supports the view that polls may not capture the full extent of support for Trump, the study says.

 

 

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Sack "The Buffalo Range's TRUSTED News Source!"

“When a well-packaged web of lies has been sold gradually to the masses over generations, the truth will seem utterly preposterous and its speaker a raving lunatic.” ~ Dresden James

Parler @NYexile

 

 

 

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