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If Josh Allen succeeds, the Bills will have outsmarted basically all regular humans and the entirety of math itself

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Well this article didn't age well... care for a retraction SB Nation? I'm not quoting this whole piece of shit.

If Josh Allen succeeds, the Bills will have outsmarted basically all regular humans and the entirety of math itself


Josh Allen was hyped for a full year before the 2018 NFL Draft as a potential No. 1 pick, and he went No. 7 to the Bills, all to the bafflement of pretty much everyone not employed by the league.

There’s never been a bigger disconnect between what the NFL apparently thinks and what the armchair analysts think.
Personnel people see a prototype athlete whose flaws they can correct, while fans, statisticians, tape-grinders of varying expertise, and most media people see a flawed athlete with a prototypical shape.

He’s a project. Coaches, scouts, and the most prominent mock drafters disagree to extreme degree with eggheads, less prominent mock drafters, and the public on how many tuneups he needs, though.

In the end, somebody’s gonna be wrong.

If Allen succeeds, he’ll be a major statistical outlier, no matter how deeply into the numbers you go.
First, the raw numbers, some of which you’re sick of, but bear with me.

In two seasons as a starter, Allen ranked 32nd (2016) and 73rd (2017) in passer rating. Here’s how his final college season compares to his new peers:

Where Josh Allen’s peers ranked in college:


QB Last college year Last college QB rating ranking
Baker Mayfield 2017 1
Marcus Mariota 2014 1
Philip Rivers 2003 1
Russell Wilson 2011 1
Alex Smith 2004 2
Ben Roethlisberger 2003 2
Cam Newton 2010 2
Mason Rudolph 2017 3
Case Keenum 2011 4
Andy Dalton 2010 5
Carson Palmer 2002 5
Aaron Rodgers 2004 8
Blake Bortles 2013 9
Carson Wentz 2015 11 (FCS)
Mitchell Trubisky 2016 11
Brett Hundley 2014 13
Tyrod Taylor 2010 13
Derek Carr 2013 15
Matthew Stafford 2008 15
Tom Brady 1999 17
Eli Manning 2003 18
Joe Flacco 2007 18 (FCS)
Dak Prescott 2015 22
Non-Allen average - 23.4
Drew Brees 2000 25
Jameis Winston 2014 26
Sam Darnold 2017 26
Josh Rosen 2017 28
Kirk Cousins 2011 28
DeShone Kizer 2016 29
Lamar Jackson 2017 29
Jay Cutler 2005 60
Jacoby Brissett 2015 61
Matt Ryan 2007 61
Josh Allen 2017 73
C.J. Beathard 2016 78
Josh McCown 2000 90
Trevor Siemian 2014 104

NFL QBs with at least 225 attempts in 2017 and 2018’s top six draft QBs

Nothing is perfectly predictive, but as you can see, the only others to have below-average final college seasons were Beathard (lost his NFL starting job in 2017), McCown (didn’t become a steady NFL contributor until his 11th season), and Siemian (being replaced as an NFL starter). An attempt to find a true statistical comp for Allen usually ends up on Jake Locker, another big, agile QB.


Connelly’s opponent-adjusted Passing S&P+, which grades each unit in FBS on efficiency, explosiveness, and more, has Allen’s 2017 Wyoming passing attack ranked No. 119 out of 130 teams.

Allen didn’t have a lot of NFL talent in 2017, but Wyoming’s rushing offense, passing defense, rushing offense, and special teams all ranked better (or much better), so it’s not like the Cowboys had a hopeless roster.

In 2016, with two NFL draftees by his side (and thus mostly facing defenses with less pro talent), Allen’s passing game ranked No. 52, slightly above average.

So yeah, his best college season wasn’t exactly awesome. 2016’s All-Mountain West first-team QB was Boise State’s Brett Rypien.


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4 hours ago, George said:

The Browns outsmarted everyone

Well the Browns are certainly innovative.  Some draft experts say a team should draft a QB every year.  Well the Browns have done one better-they sign a new head coach every year.  If you're a head coaching candidate and the Browns call just say "No hablo Ingles" and hang up the phone.  

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