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Interesting Article on trades increasing due to the high "miss" rate of draft picks

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I have always advocated trading down, to get more picks, because draft picks have a spin of the wheel randomness to them.
Matt Miller lays out that teams are now more willing to trade picks, instead of hoarding them, because when you trade for an existing NFL player, you know what you are getting.  Versus drafting a Zay Jones in the draft...who looked great on paper, but doesn't pan out.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2858525-matt-millers-scouting-notebook-what-happened-to-nfl-draft-pick-value

There was a time, not too long ago, when NFL front offices wouldn't part with draft picks for anything. Want to trade for a starting-caliber quarterback? Better not ask for a first-round pick in exchange for him.

Case in point: The San Francisco 49ers acquired Jimmy Garoppolo, a highly coveted quarterback who was on the last year of his rookie deal, for a second-round pick.  First-round picks were kept at all costs, and this was October 2017.

Then something changed. NFL teams started sending picks off for players at a high rate. Kansas City Chiefs general manager Brett Veach helped start the trend by sending late-round picks in exchange for formerly highly valued players such as linebacker Reggie Ragland (acquired for a conditional 2019 fourth-rounder from the Buffalo Bills) and offensive lineman Cameron Erving (acquired for a 2018 fifth-rounder).

The idea of sending Day 3 draft picks for players who were either proven or had high potential in their pre-draft reports took off. We still see moves like this today, as evidenced by the Los Angeles Rams trading a 2021 fifth-rounder for center Austin Corbett, who was the No. 33 overall pick in the 2018 draft. 

Why, though, has the NFL become more trade-friendly in the last few seasons? 

Former Cleveland Browns CEO Joe Banner believes it's because of the miss rate in the draft: "With teams only hitting on 50 percent of first-round picks and virtually no team without cap room, the value of a proven veteran has gone up and an unknown draft pick has gone down. When cap was tight, teams needed to hit on cheaper draft picks to be able to afford veterans. Now you can build a much higher percentage of your team with established players."

The Rams are attempting to load up for a Super Bowl run with this mindset. The Chiefs traded for cornerback Kendall Fuller and defensive end Frank Clark as huge parts of their defensive identity. The Cleveland Browns traded for wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. in a massive move.

Even though the results haven't been immediate, these remain some of the NFL's most promising teams. They’re shifting into win-now mode by being aggressive in the trade market.

They're able to do that because a good number of young and aggressive general managers are viewing draft picks as risky. Would you rather be the Rams with two late first-round picks that might not make huge impacts or the best young cornerback in football, Jalen Ramsey, formerly of the Jacksonville Jaguars?

For many general managers, taking the proven asset over the unproven value of a draft pick is the way to go. Which begs the question: Who is next?

Washington Redskins left tackle Trent Williams is the object of many teams' affection, but the front office has, to date, expressed no interest in trading him. The same is true for Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver A.J. Green, who will be a free agent after the season. A few teams (the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers, most likely) would be interested in Green, but the Bengals say they aren't trading him.

Some teams would like to be buyers at the deadline, and already we're seeing reports that the Miami Dolphins would be willing to trade impending free-agent running back Kenyan Drake. But the current expectation from league insiders is that the big deals are done unless the Redskins or Bengals change course as the Tuesday deadline looms.

The Scout's Report

—Speaking of trades, the Los Angeles Rams had a quick but effective makeover this week by adding Jalen Ramsey, Austin Corbett, Kenny Young and a 2020 fifth-rounder in exchange for Marcus Peters, a 2020 first-rounder, a 2021 first-rounder, a 2021 fourth-rounder and a 2021 fifth-rounder.

As mentioned above, this is the new-age thinking of flipping late-round picks for players (Young, Corbett) who were highly valued in their pre-draft process.

Corbett was the No. 33 overall pick in 2018 and graded No. 40 on my Big Board. He wasn't able to crack the lineup in Cleveland, but a different offensive scheme might fix what has kept him off the field. Similarly, Young has been a healthy scratch at times in Baltimore, but he was drafted No. 122 overall in 2018 (graded No. 291 on my board) and has athleticism at a position of need in L.A.


Draft a Running Back in the 2nd?  Add another EDGE or Corner?

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Can't say I blame them. 1st round picks are 50/50 no matter how they look in college. It's better to give something in the 1st away for a proven player than wagering it on one that may or may not be better. What I don't get is why these teams are giving away MULTIPLE picks for a player with an expensive contract on the books.


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I have been beating this drum for YEARS.

Way ahead of the NFL.

A bird in hand is better than 2 in the bush.

I'll trad 2 "maybe" pro bowlers for 1 actual pro bowler.


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On 1/31/2015 at 3:34 PM, IlluminatusUIUC said:

Jungle was one of the worst posters on the site and I'm not backing off that. The guy would say completely ridiculous, indefensible things over and over, and he would misquote and whine about attempts to refute those points as personal attacks. He was also completely devoted to scouting reports. My favorite one was when he tried to use a 2006 draft profile of Tarvaris Jackson as a counterpoint, after the dude had played six years in the league on two different teams.

945D802F-8FEC-4EF8-90CA-6D6166161CB4.jpeg

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Agree 100% with bird in the hand.   So many variables at play.   GM should go for it if they believe in the player and the team's ability to make it work.  Fun times.

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Brandon Beane is way over the 50% success rate. Some teams just suck at drafting new players. Many draft on skill alone and less on character.

The Browns and Jets BLOW, should just stay home

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53 minutes ago, LiterateStylish said:

I have been beating this drum for YEARS.

Way ahead of the NFL.

A bird in hand is better than 2 in the bush.

I'll trad 2 "maybe" pro bowlers for 1 actual pro bowler.

Correct.

This is why we should've landed Mack last year.

If it's a true impact position, and a guy is that good, you're outsmarting yourself.

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In the short term you can trade a draft pick or two for a proven commodity. For example if you are are team close to making the super bowl you could justify trading a 1st round pick for a player that will put you over the top.

 

If you want to have long term success in the NFL you have to have a great scouting department and a great coaching staff that can teach and develop players. It also helps you have continuity and consistency with the same coaching staff and front office so you are drafting player for the same scheme

 

 

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L*t is a loser

 

My adapt a Bill is Brandon Beane.

 

1065198188.jpg.0.jpg

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1 minute ago, The Beef said:

Correct.

This is why we should've landed Mack last year.

If it's a true impact position, and a guy is that good, you're outsmarting yourself.

I still can't believe Jon Gruden didn't extend Mack and traded him away.


L*t is a loser

 

My adapt a Bill is Brandon Beane.

 

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1 hour ago, Laughing Coffin said:

 

Bullshit. He's as good as gone by the 29th.


Sack "The Buffalo Range's TRUSTED News Source!"

“When a well-packaged web of lies has been sold gradually to the masses over generations, the truth will seem utterly preposterous and its speaker a raving lunatic.” ~ Dresden James

Parler @NYexile

 

 

 

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The author (Matt Miller?) is incorrect, teams have been trading #1s for many years before 2017, just look at some QB trades.  There have also been many trades of lower picks for formerly high picks all the time.  The only change that is a new development is the players have figured out if they act like total assholes with their current team and they are stars they can leverage their way off the team.  Jalen Ramsey being their poster boy.

The only reason NE didn't get a #1 for Garoppolo was they waited until he had less than 1 season left on his contract & didn't have the cap room to franchise him at the end of the season & then trade him.  They also took a 2nd to keep him out of the AFC.  Cleveland, among possibly others, would have traded a #1 for JG.  

There have been #1s traded for QBs, both in the draft & for veterans all the time.  Here are some examples:

The Bills have done it 2x, once for Rob Johnson & once for Drew Bledsoe.  I don't count JP since there was only 1 #1 in the trade to get back into the 1st round.

GB traded a #1 to Atlanta for Brett Favre after Favre's rookie year.

In recent years teams have traded multiple #1s to move up in the draft.  In 2017 KC & Houston both traded 2 #1s, their own that year & the following year's #1 to move up & draft QBs. In 2016 LA Rams & Philadelphia traded multiple #1s to move up in the draft.

Here's another old example of the Bills getting a #1 in a trade for a player.  The Bills franchised Peerless Price & traded him to Atlanta for a #1.   

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4 hours ago, Tampabill said:

Agree 100% with bird in the hand.   So many variables at play.   GM should go for it if they believe in the player and the team's ability to make it work.  Fun times.

But how many pro bowlers can you pay?  This approach works for a team that is ready to win, the window closes and the players resign elsewhere.


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3. RB Cam Akers Florida State

4. Edge Alton Robinson Syracuse

5.  S Tanner Muse Clemson

6. LB Shaquille Quarterman - The U

6. G Kevin Dotson La Lafeyette

7.  S L'jarius Sneed LA Tech

 

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17 hours ago, LiterateStylish said:

I have been beating this drum for YEARS.

Way ahead of the NFL.

A bird in hand is better than 2 in the bush.

I'll trad 2 "maybe" pro bowlers for 1 actual pro bowler.

You can do this when you have your core in place, and your payroll is at a respectable level.

However, that was not the Bill's, so I agree with their rebuild. In my opinion, they should have done it years ago. Can't stay mediocre or just plain bad forever, sometimes it can benefit a team by going back to the starting block.

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