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Accuracy remains an issue

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What the hell do you have against jungle? He contributes a lot here. The worst thing you could say is he’s a homer, but I call that being an eternal Bills optimist 😎

 

Maybe the fact that he's one of the bitch ass bitches rooting for me to be banned forever

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Maybe the fact that he's one of the bitch ass bitches rooting for me to be banned forever

 

LOL, you act like a cunt. You are aggressive and hostile to everyone. And then act surprised when you get banned. You were saying a bunch of racist and bigoted shit last time you got banned

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... You have to be very condescending and closeminded as a part of draft analytics twitter to assume that a QB can't improve with NFL level coaching and playing with better talent than he ever did at Wyoming.

 

I don't think anybody would argue that a QB can't improve with NFL level coaching. The argument is that history says that it is extremely likely that he will not improve his accuracy sufficiently to make it in the NFL.

But I agree, they are kind of trying to validate their analysis via Allen and try to be right here. Lets see if they eat crow. I am pretty sure that if Allen continues his trajectory that Schatz will admit that he and his analysis were wrong about Allen.

By the way he admits all the time in articles on his website the shortcomings of his analysis.

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Maybe that's what you remember but I remember there being a "banned" label under your name.

 

that was put there after jungle left

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I highly reccomend every checks out this article by Jason Kirk of SBnation who claimed if Josh Allen succeds he will outsmart math and humans, this is laughable.

 

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/24/17271686/josh-allen-nfl-draft-2018-stats-analysis-comparisons

 

If Josh Allen succeeds, the Bills will have outsmarted basically all regular humans and the entirety of math itself

 

If this works, then stats really are for losers, I guess.

 

By Jason Kirk Updated Apr 26, 2018, 8:58pm EDT

 

Wyoming v Nebraska

Photo by Steven Branscombe/Getty Images

Josh Allen was hyped for a full year before the 2018 NFL Draft as a potential No. 1 pick, and he went No. 7 to the Bills, all to the bafflement of pretty much everyone not employed by the league.

 

There’s never been a bigger disconnect between what the NFL apparently thinks and what the armchair analysts think.

Personnel people see a prototype athlete whose flaws they can correct, while fans, statisticians, tape-grinders of varying expertise, and most media people see a flawed athlete with a prototypical shape.

 

He’s a project. Coaches, scouts, and the most prominent mock drafters disagree to extreme degree with eggheads, less prominent mock drafters, and the public on how many tuneups he needs, though.

 

In the end, somebody’s gonna be wrong.

 

If Allen succeeds, he’ll be a major statistical outlier, no matter how deeply into the numbers you go.

First, the raw numbers, some of which you’re sick of, but bear with me.

 

In two seasons as a starter, Allen ranked 32nd (2016) and 73rd (2017) in passer rating. Here’s how his final college season compares to his new peers:

 

Where Josh Allen’s peers ranked in college

 

QB Last college year Last college QB rating ranking

Baker Mayfield 2017 1

Marcus Mariota 2014 1

Philip Rivers 2003 1

Russell Wilson 2011 1

Alex Smith 2004 2

Ben Roethlisberger 2003 2

Cam Newton 2010 2

Mason Rudolph 2017 3

Case Keenum 2011 4

Andy Dalton 2010 5

Carson Palmer 2002 5

Aaron Rodgers 2004 8

Blake Bortles 2013 9

Carson Wentz 2015 11 (FCS)

Mitchell Trubisky 2016 11

Brett Hundley 2014 13

Tyrod Taylor 2010 13

Derek Carr 2013 15

Matthew Stafford 2008 15

Tom Brady 1999 17

Eli Manning 2003 18

Joe Flacco 2007 18 (FCS)

Dak Prescott 2015 22

Non-Allen average - 23.4

Drew Brees 2000 25

Jameis Winston 2014 26

Sam Darnold 2017 26

Josh Rosen 2017 28

Kirk Cousins 2011 28

DeShone Kizer 2016 29

Lamar Jackson 2017 29

Jay Cutler 2005 60

Jacoby Brissett 2015 61

Matt Ryan 2007 61

Josh Allen 2017 73

C.J. Beathard 2016 78

Josh McCown 2000 90

Trevor Siemian 2014 104

NFL QBs with at least 225 attempts in 2017 and 2018’s top six draft QBs

Nothing is perfectly predictive, but as you can see, the only others to have below-average final college seasons were Beathard (lost his NFL starting job in 2017), McCown (didn’t become a steady NFL contributor until his 11th season), and Siemian (being replaced as an NFL starter). An attempt to find a true statistical comp for Allen usually ends up on Jake Locker, another big, agile QB.

 

 

 

A more advanced system by SB Nation’s Bill Connelly found that a QB’s ceiling in the pros is lower than his college stats, with dozens of previous examples. Well, based on that, Allen’s ceiling is the tall, strong Ryan Mallett. Not Allen’s projection. Allen’s ceiling.

 

Connelly’s opponent-adjusted Passing S&P+, which grades each unit in FBS on efficiency, explosiveness, and more, has Allen’s 2017 Wyoming passing attack ranked No. 119 out of 130 teams.

 

Allen didn’t have a lot of NFL talent in 2017, but Wyoming’s rushing offense, passing defense, rushing offense, and special teams all ranked better (or much better), so it’s not like the Cowboys had a hopeless roster.

 

In 2016, with two NFL draftees by his side (and thus mostly facing defenses with less pro talent), Allen’s passing game ranked No. 52, slightly above average.

 

So yeah, his best college season wasn’t exactly awesome. 2016’s All-Mountain West first-team QB was Boise State’s Brett Rypien.

 

 

 

Football Outsiders’ QBASE formula mixes conventional wisdom with stats, giving a boost to players who are popular among scouts and mockers. Its all-time college top 10 — Rivers, Palmer, McNabb, Mayfield, Wilson, Peyton Manning, Mariota, Byron Leftwich, Rodgers, and Roethlisberger — gives it credibility as an NFL predictor.

 

Well, Allen’s sub-zero results are “horrifying,” in FO’s words: “Since 1997, there have been 27 quarterbacks chosen in the top 100 with QBASE ratings below zero. The best was either Josh McCown or Brian Griese.”

 

 

finds “NFL throw” accuracy — when making difficult passes, basically — to be especially predictive. In versions of that metric, Allen ranks either fifth or sixth among 2018’s top six QB prospects.

 

PFF’s big board ranks Allen No. 6 among QBs and No. 35 among all 2018 prospects. PFF grades him below-average in six of 10 traits and above-average in just three: running, intermediate passes, and difficult/high-value passes.

 

From another system that adds eyeball context to raw numbers:

 

Sports Info Solutions’ [...] proprietary quarterback metric, IQR (Independent Quarterback Rating) accounts for events out of the passer’s control, including dropped passes and dropped interceptions. In 2017, Mayfield earned the highest IQR on 91 attempts under pressure by a mile—his 119.2 rating was better than Mason Rudolph by 12 points, and blew away Rosen (91.2), Darnold (79.8) and Allen (62.7).

 

In that stat, Allen also trails Luke Falk, Lamar Jackson, Virginia’s Kurt Benkert, and turnover-prone Nebraska QB Tanner Lee.

 

 

Those stumping for Allen as a top prospect might be vindicated, but they’ve still fallen into contortions along the way.

 

 

 

Elsewhere at ESPN, that gets somewhat debunked:

 

Supporters say he played in an offense that didn’t allow for many gimme completions. Some of that is myth. Allen threw a higher percentage of short passes than Darnold, Mayfield and Rosen, according to ESPN Stats & Information research. In fact, 30 percent of his attempts traveled zero to 5 yards in the air.

 

Also per ESPN, Allen was among the least accurate of his peers at each of three levels anyway:

 

completion_percentage_by_zone.jpg

 

also:

 

 

Another point made in Allen’s favor: his team was often out-talented. It’s true Wyoming has a middling MWC roster, but the defenses he faced were rarely anything special.

 

Which 2018 NFL draft QBs faced the toughest competition, over their full college careers?

QB Average opposing pass D ranking Top-10 pass defenses Top-30 pass defenses Top-60 pass defenses

Sam Darnold 51.5 3 9 14

Baker Mayfield 54.3 4 11 27

J.T. Barrett 54.4 7 15 27

Lamar Jackson 56.1 7 14 19

Mason Rudolph 60.4 1 8 21

Josh Rosen 66.3 1 5 14

Luke Falk 69.1 2 9 19

Kurt Benkert 69.3 3 6 10

Riley Ferguson 81.8 0 3 9

Josh Allen 82.8 0 3 9

Logan Woodside 83.3 0 4 10

Nick Stevens 85.3 2 5 13

Mike White 85.4 1 3 15

Chase Litton 89.9 0 0 10

Kyle Lauletta 152.6 0 0 2

FBS opponent-adjusted Defensive S&P+ rankings by SB Nation’s Bill Connelly. FCS team rankings by USA Today’s Jeff Sagarin.

And previous non-power first-rounders have put up better numbers against similar schedules:

 

How Josh Allen compares to previous 1st-round QBs from non-power conferences

Year Player College rating College yards/throw

2000 Chad Pennington (Marshall) 157.6 8.6

2002 Patrick Ramsey (Tulane) 126.0 6.8

2002 David Carr (Fresno State) 151.2 8.3

2003 Byron Leftwich (Marshall) 150.9 8.3

2004 J.P. Losman (Tulane) 129.8 6.8

2004 Ben Roethlisberger (Miami, OH) 151.3 8.3

2005 Alex Smith (Utah) 164.4 8.9

2008 Joe Flacco (Delaware) 137.8 7.5

2014 Blake Bortles (UCF) 153.8 8.5

2016 Paxton Lynch (Memphis) 137.0 7.4

2016 Carson Wentz (North Dakota State) 153.9 8.4

2018 Josh Allen? (Wyoming) 137.7 7.8

Sports-Reference

 

Another argument in Allen’s favor: he might have the strongest arm of any QB ever. But:

 

 

And:

 

 

Another defense of Allen: his receivers were bad.

 

Well, first, they were mostly playing against MWC cornerbacks, who are not the world’s greatest. Secondly, Allen’s WRs at least had good hands, even if they weren’t game-changing athletes:

 

 

Another: his offensive line was bad. However, he ended up with plenty of time in the pocket, even if he created a lot of it himself.

 

 

It’s fair to note the three QBs with the most time are also good at running around — nobody would argue Jackson’s offensive line was actually solid, for example.

 

Stats are for nerds (per Kiper), so let’s Go To The Tape.

I’m not gonna embed 1,000 video breakdowns, so here’s a mass summary:

 

Allen has the dream physique, makes throws that range from amazingly good to amazingly bad, has a whole lot to clean up, will be anything from Roger Staubach to Kyle Boller (old Boller scouting reports read a little eerily right now, actually), and might or might not be worth the risk.

 

And there the debate continues, exactly the same as it was back in February, December, October, and August.

 

Allen will have a chance to be an NFL quarterback. One side will be right.

The other side will ignore the result as a fluke and continue unfazed.

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https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/5/17046116/2018-nfl-draft-quarterbacks-josh-allen-sam-darnold-projections-hype

 

There’s a new approach to NFL QB projections — and the 2018 draft class is in trouble

Looking for a quarterback’s NFL ceiling? Look no further than college stats.

 

By Bill Connelly@SBN_BillC Apr 5, 2018, 9:00am EDT

 

According to Football Outsiders’ DYAR ratings — defense-adjusted yards above replacement — the top five NFL quarterbacks in 2017 were New England’s Tom Brady, the Los Angeles Chargers’ Philip Rivers, New Orleans’ Drew Brees, Minnesota’s Case Keenum, and Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger.

 

Brady was a moderately successful two-year starter at Michigan and a sixth-round draft pick.

Rivers was a record-setting four-year starter at NC State and a top-five pick.

Brees was an undersized but prolific three-year starter out of an early version of the spread offense. He was picked in the second round.

Keenum was an undrafted journeyman and former two-star recruit who threw for nearly 20,000 yards out of the spread in college but just bounced to his fourth team in six seasons in the NFL.

Roethlisberger was a small-school star, a three-year college starter at Miami (Ohio), and a top-15 pick.

Three power-conference players and two mid-major stars. Two top picks, a second-rounder, and two draft afterthoughts. Two former blue-chippers and three two- or three-star guys. Three players with perfect QB size and two undersized gunslingers. And lest you think experience was too much of a predictor here (since four of these five are up there in years), the No. 6 (Jared Goff) and 8 (Carson Wentz) QBs on the DYAR list were second-year guys, so that only goes so far as well.

 

The top of this list of passers was low on indicators and high on symbolism. The simple truth: It’s really, really hard to identify good quarterbacks before they become good quarterbacks.

Heading into the NFL Draft at the end of April, so much analysis always focuses on the idea of projection, on what a guy might be able to do, not necessarily what he’s done.

 

This makes sense, of course, to a point — so much of success at any level is based on situation, scheme, and circumstance. The right coach, teammates, or system can make an immense difference, plus these guys haven’t faced NFL talent, with NFL coaching, before. Plenty of QBs with great college stats have bombed out in the pros, and plenty with merely good stats have thrived.

 

NFL GMs can be forgiven for thinking that, once we get a kid in our system, it’s all gonna work out just fine. We can fix his flaws and maximize his talent. Stats will only tell you so much. They are, dare we say, for losers.

 

f we look at the right stats, however, and do so from the right perspective, we can still get further down the road than we would get just relying on basic stats or the eye test.

For instance, we definitively know a prospect’s ceiling: His college stats.

It makes sense, right? Just as we don’t expect a blue-chip running back to average 12 yards per carry in college like he perhaps did in high school, a college back who averaged seven yards per carry in college probably isn’t going to do so in the NFL. And the odds of a quarterback matching his college stats at the next level are almost null.

 

That is, he won’t match his rate stats. Keenum, for instance, isn’t throwing 50 times per game in the NFL like he did in his junior year at Houston, so his per-game yardage totals will be different. But things like completion rate, interception rate, etc., can be more telling. And success rate can be extremely telling.

 

Success rate and IsoPPP (isolated points per play) have been go-to stats for a lot of my college analysis in recent years.

 

Success rate is a common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not (the terms: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down).

IsoPPP, meanwhile, looks at the magnitude of the successful plays in terms of expected points.

As it turns out, the correlation between one’s success rate in college and in his first four years in the pros is around 0.272, better than other rate stats I experimented with.

 

There are 38 quarterbacks who a) were drafted from an FBS school between 2010-17 and b) have thrown at least 300 passes in the NFL. This is not a huge group, and it overlooks players who either just entered the league, have battled injuries, or, of course, weren’t good enough to throw 300 passes in the league. Looking at college-to-pro results will always have limitations like that.

 

We can still pretty clearly learn something from these 38 QBs. For starters, none of them exceeded their college success rate in their first four years in the pros*.

 

* Why first four years? Because that’s generally how long a rookie contract lasts. If you pick a guy who’s going to need two or three years of grooming, you might lose him as soon as he becomes a viable player.

efficiency.jpg

 

Your college success rate is your ceiling.

 

Almost the only guys who came the close to matching their college success rates were near the bottom:

 

Brock Osweiler (45.4 percent success rate in college, 43.9 percent in first four NFL years) mostly sat the bench for three seasons, then parlayed a fourth-year surge into a lofty contract (and promptly fell apart).

Jake Locker (40.0 percent / 38.3 percent) was the least efficient college QB in the sample and one of the least efficient in the pros.

New Viking Kirk Cousins (48.5 percent / 46.1 percent), a fourth-round pick in 2012, also perhaps benefited from early-career bench time before thriving. We’ll see if his sparkly new contract ends up a better investment than Osweiler’s.

Osweiler and Cousins got to sit and learn for a while before being sent into action. A lot of top draft picks, however, were given early playing time, both because of their potential and the fact that teams had invested top draft picks in them. For players like Jameis Winston (45.8 percent success rate in the pros), Cam Newton (42.6 percent in his first four years), and Marcus Mariota (43.4 percent), this has worked out pretty well.

 

For others, like Gabbert (32.9 percent), Tim Tebow (35.8 percent), and, thus far, Mitchell Trubisky (34.0 percent), it has meant early exposure of all their flaws to opponents. Gabbert and Tebow never really recovered, but Goff (29.6 percent in his rookie year, 44.3 percent in his second) did.

 

NFL: Pro Bowl-NFC vs AFC

Jared Goff’s first season in the pros was a nightmare. His second ended in the Pro Bowl. Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

We don’t learn as much about the guys with great college efficiency as the ones with statistical deficiencies. Your success rate is going to sink as the degree of difficulty improves, and while the most efficient college quarterbacks have the best odds of pro efficiency, the variance is pretty high.

 

But your ceiling is your ceiling, and even if this doesn’t say much about guys with obscene college stats, it says a ton about the Lockers and/or Blaine Gabberts of the world, the guys with mediocre stats and standout physical traits, the guys about whom scouts will say “Yeah, his stats aren’t that good, but I can fix him. Just look at that arm!”

 

So what does this tell us about this year’s draft prospects? Less than amazing things.

I’ve been very confused by the chatter about this being an amazing QB draft class. The buzz began before the 2017 season and continued despite Wyoming’s Josh Allen regressing drastically from a statistical perspective, UCLA’s Josh Rosen continuing to struggle with injuries, and USC’s Sam Darnold dealing with some turnoveritis.

 

I have long suspected that this QB buzz has come in part because most of the truly best players in the draft play positions that don’t tend to warrant the top pick — running back (Saquon Barkley), offensive guard (Quenton Nelson), safety (Minkah Fitzpatrick, Derwin James), inside linebacker (Roquan Smith).

 

That is to some degree understandable. But you have to add a lot of favorable context to these stats to convince yourself that this is even an above-average QB crop.

 

Since the highest four-year pro success rate from any QB in this sample is 46.1 percent (from both Cousins and, thus far, Dak Prescott), and since 35 of 38 quarterbacks in our draft sample were at least three percentage points lower in the NFL than in college (most were much further away than that), let’s set an artificial bar at 49.1 percent. Those at or above that mark are the ones with Prescott-level early-career efficiency potential.

 

Where do this year’s 13 primary QB prospects land?

 

2018 QB prospects with a career success rate of 49.1 percent or higher:

Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma (54.8 percent)

Sam Darnold, USC (52.0 percent)

Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State (50.0 percent)

Logan Woodside*, Toledo (49.5 percent)

Of the 38 players in the NFL sample, only Winston (57.1 percent) and Bradford (55.4) had higher career success rates in college than Mayfield. Winston’s first three seasons in the NFL have generated a 45.8 percent success rate; Bradford battled injury and a porous offensive line, generating a 37.2 percent success rate in his first two years before rising to 42.3 percent, near the league average (which is usually between 42.5 and 43 percent), in his next two.

 

Again, since both were drafted so high, there was no sitting — they threw a combined 1,181 passes in their respective rookie seasons. Mayfield and Darnold will potentially be thrust into action just as quickly. Rudolph and Woodside, perhaps less so.

 

 

* Note: these are raw stats, unadjusted for opponent, and we don’t have enough of a sample of QBs from mid-major schools to know how much of a difference to expect from that jump. But the guys in the sample — Colin Kaepernick (47.3 percent in college, 42.1 in the NFL), Andy Dalton (49.5, 42.6), Derek Carr (47.1, 41.0), and Blake Bortles (51.6, 39.6) — have made the statistical transition about the same as the power-conference guys.

 

NCAA Football: Oklahoma Pro Day

Baker Mayfield’s college stats were otherworldly. Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports

Here are the 2018 QBs who came relatively close to that 49 percent mark:

 

2018 QB prospects with a career success rate within two percentage points of 49.1 percent:

Riley Ferguson, Memphis (49.0 percent)

Nick Stevens, Colorado State (48.9 percent)

J.T. Barrett, Ohio State (48.6 percent)

Luke Falk, Washington State (48.0 percent)

Lamar Jackson, Louisville (47.4 percent)

Mike White, WKU (47.4 percent)

You can’t really get a conclusive read on prospects within this range, especially someone like Lamar Jackson, whose rushing ability is incredible. (I limited this look to just pass proficiency.)

 

You can, however, draw some pretty stark, alarming conclusions about prospects in this range:

 

2018 QB prospects with a career success rate lower than 47.1 percent:

Rosen (46.6 percent)

Litton (45.2 percent)

Allen (43.3 percent)

Of the 38 QBs in our pro sample, only one (Osweiler) managed a league-average passing success rate in the NFL over his first four years after producing a college success rate this low. The only two QBs in the lower-efficiency range who were drafted in the first round, as Rosen and Allen will be: Gabbert and Locker. Not the greatest of role models.

 

Of course, Rosen’s career numbers were dragged down by the simple fact that he played as a true freshman. Allen didn’t, nor did Gabbert. Rosen’s success rate improved over his three seasons, from 44.8 percent as a freshman in 2015, to 46.3 percent in 2016, to a perfectly solid 48.7 percent last year. So maybe he’s in the clear.

 

Allen, however? If you’re likely to finish, at best, two to three percent below your college success rate, that means his ceiling is around 40.5 to 41 percent. That’s Ryan Mallett territory (40.8 percent). As a ceiling. Are we sure we’re willing to spend a top-five pick on a guy who might, with some good breaks, become Ryan Mallett?

 

Maybe he goes on to become the outlier of outliers, as insisted on by every draft scout who watches him throw in shorts against no defenders. But what an incredible gamble it will be for whatever team inevitably picks him in the top 10.

 

NCAA Football: Potato Bowl-Central Michigan vs Wyoming

Josh Allen’s Wyoming stats were ... lacking. Brian Losness-USA TODAY Sports

To add further context to these numbers, let’s run some basic projections. To do so, though, let’s talk a moment about explosiveness.

 

Back in January, I began playing with what I call marginal efficiency and marginal explosiveness.

 

Marginal Efficiency: the difference between a player’s success rate (passing, rushing, or receiving) or success rate allowed (for an individual defender) and the expected success rate of each play based on down, distance, and yard line.

 

Marginal Explosiveness: the difference between a player’s IsoPPP (passing, rushing, or receiving) or IsoPPP allowed (for an individual defender) and the expected IsoPPP value of each play based on down, distance, and yard line.

 

For offensive players, the larger the positive value, the better. For defensive players, it’s the opposite — the more negative, the better.

 

In my 2018 college football preview series, I have been integrating marginal efficiency and marginal explosiveness into my player analysis, and it works pretty well. You can never truly isolate one player’s performance from others’ using play-by-play stats — there’s always extra context to address — but this can perhaps take us further down the road. In this case, it basically tells us that big plays don’t carry over to the pros.

 

While the correlation between one’s marginal efficiency in college and the pros is about the same as success rate, the correlation for marginal explosiveness was much lower (0.099). That is to say, there’s almost no relationship.

 

explosiveness.jpg

This was what I expected to see, both because of the inherent randomness of big plays and the fact that, because of fewer lopsided matchups and/or crippling errors, there are fewer big plays in the pros. But it means that we have to stick mostly to efficiency when attempting to make college-to-pro projections. That’s a differentiation we can’t make with more standard stats like yards per attempt.

 

I ran a simple regression to see how these players’ college stats might translate to the pros. I included explosiveness below as a way to figure out who we might be getting a false impression of as much as anything.

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cont'd from above article

 

BillC_QBStat_Charts_Spread__1_.jpg

 

Players like Mayfield, Rudolph, Woodside, Ferguson, and Allen likely benefited more from a level of explosiveness that won’t carry over to the pros. Mayfield nailed the efficiency element of the routine as well, however. Allen, on the other hand...

 

Since a common retort from Allen advocates has been that his supporting cast was terrible in 2017, and that this should negate his mostly awful stats from last fall, I included a projection based on his 2016-only stats as well.

 

Using 2016 upgrades him from DeShone Kizer to Tim Tebow.

 

Stats will never tell you everything about what a player can do. In this case, though, it tells you what certain players probably can’t.

And in the case of Josh Allen, it would take a spectacular outlier performance — one that hasn’t happened this decade — to live up to the expectations of the top-five or top-10 pick it appears he will become.

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