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How often do TEs taken early in the draft become Elite players? TJ Hockenson at 9?

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How often do TEs taken in the first or second round become elite NFL players?

1 or more TDs every 3 games would be considered Elite

 

AP1 = All Pro

PB = Pro Bowl

CarAV = Avg catches per year in career

 

Player________AP1____PB CarAV AV/yr G Rec/g TD/g

Rob Gronkowski__ 3__ 4__ 56 8.0 88 4.6__ 0.78

Zach Ertz_________ 0__ 0__ 21 5.3 61 4.0__ 0.21

Greg Olsen_______ 0__ 3__ 54 5.4 158 3.9__ 0.33

Dustin Keller_______0__ 0__ 22 4.4 72 3.3__ 0.24

Eric Ebron_________0__ 0__ 12 4.0 40 3.3__ 0.20

Tyler Eifert_______ 0__ 1__ 12 3.0 37 3.3__ 0.54

Kyle Rudolph______ 0__ 1__ 22__ 3.7 80 3.3__ 0.36

Brandon Pettigrew__ 0__ 0__ 22 3.1 93 3.2__ 0.18

Jermaine Gresham__ 0__ 2__ 26 3.7 105 3.2__ 0.26

Coby Fleener______ 0 0 23 4.6 76 3.1__ 0.28

Martellus Bennett___ 0 1 33 3.7 135 3.0__ 0.22

Zach Miller_______ 0 1 29 3.6 110 3.0__ 0.18

Jace Amaro______ 0 0 4 1.3 17 2.4__ 0.12

Hunter Henry__ 0 0 4 4.0 15 2.4__ 0.53

John Carlson 0 0 16 2.3 90 2.3__ 0.17

Fred Davis 0 0 14 2.3 72 2.3__ 0.18

Austin Seferian-Jenkins 0 0 6 2.0 25 2.2__ 0.28

Lance Kendricks 0 0 13 2.2 93 2.2__ 0.18

Maxx Williams 0 0 2 1.0 18 1.8__ 0.06

Devin Funchess 0 0 8 4.0 31 1.7__ 0.29

Vance McDonald 0 0 6 1.5 48 1.3__ 0.15

Gavin Escobar 0 0 2 0.5 62 0.5__ 0.13

Troy Niklas 0 0 0 0.0 26 0.3__ 0.08

Richard Quinn 0 0 0 0.0 30 0.0__ 0.00

 

So that’s a 21% chance of finding an elite TE in the first or second round.


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TJ Hockenson has the potential of being a Rob Gronkowski or Jason Witten. He is a complete TE that can play the traditional in-line blocking role and used on play action passes, but can also be a new school TE lined up in the slot or flexed out wide as a WR to get a match up versus a linebacker or safety.

 

At 9th overall I want Buffalo to get an impact player like TJ Hockenson or Ed Oliver.


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The closer the draft gets, the more I really want Hockenson to be the pick. Think about it...just about every good team in recent memory has had a solid TE as the qb’s safety valve. Brady-Gronkowski, Ben-Heath Miller, Cam-Olsen, Rivers-Gates, etc. We can get a solid defender in the second round or bottom half of the first, but I don’t know if we can get a difference making TE beyond Hock, Fant, or Irv Smith. And Hock is by far the most complete, prototype TE this year.

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Who gives a flying FUCK if the dude doesn’t go to the hall of fame? Can he catch? Yes...can he score points? Yes..Can he improve our shitty offense? Yes.....Can he help Josh Allen..YES.

 

What’s the odds of the 9th player picked, of any position, becoming All Pro? Some people are acting like we are picking TE with the first overall pick. Forward minded “experts” are all saying Hockenson should be picked around 8-10.

 

But the Bills are not...they are scared to be mocked at...they’ll play it safe...because that’s what they do.


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I’ve been wanting a TE for so long, I remember praying Buffalo would take Jason Witten.

 

That’s where I’m at on out TE situation.

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Who gives a flying FUCK if the dude doesn’t go to the hall of fame? Can he catch? Yes...can he score points? Yes..Can he improve our shitty offense? Yes.....Can he help Josh Allen..YES.

 

What’s the odds of the 9th player picked, of any position, becoming All Pro? Some people are acting like we are picking TE with the first overall pick. Forward minded “experts” are all saying Hockenson should be picked around 8-10.

 

But the Bills are not...they are scared to be mocked at...they’ll play it safe...because that’s what they do.

 

“Can he improve our shitty offense?”

 

That’s the ONLY question Beane and McDermott should be asking themselves right now!!!

 

This offense needs more playmakers around Josh Allen.

 

They went all out for OL in free agency.

 

People are already worrying about the DE position NEXT YEAR when we have no reason to not pick up Shaq’s option and then we got him for another 2 years with the franchise tag if we want it. We’re also getting a healthy Trent Murphy back to help out.

 

WR can be taken care of in mid rounds.

 

And the 3 DTs atop the depth chart should make us feel comfortable.

 

The only thing I’m not comfortable with right now: Tyler Kroft and Jason Croom

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“Can he improve our shitty offense?”

 

That’s the ONLY question Beane and McDermott should be asking themselves right now!!!

 

This offense needs more playmakers around Josh Allen.

 

They went all out for OL in free agency.

 

People are already worrying about the DE position NEXT YEAR when we have no reason to not pick up Shaq’s option and then we got him for another 2 years with the franchise tag if we want it. We’re also getting a healthy Trent Murphy back to help out.

 

WR can be taken care of in mid rounds.

 

And the 3 DTs atop the depth chart should make us feel comfortable.

 

The only thing I’m not comfortable with right now: Tyler Kroft and Jason Croom

 

Good post. Listen...Hock is a complete TE. He can catch, block, and is a prototype. By getting him, we would have our big target over the middle for Allen to fall back on. We could get someone like Wilkins or Lawrence at the back of the first round if they slip. Beane has said that he would move up to get a guy that slips.

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Ive been watching all of KC games from last year and man what a difference a Kelce makes on that team. Between Kelce and Hill (WR) they bailed out Mahomes more than a lot of people realize.


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the bust potential is so freaking high for TEs that i really dont want to risk wasting a 9th pick when this might be the last time in a long time they will have a pick that high

 

give me a much less likely to bust OT or DL that can anchor a position for 10+ years


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I have wanted Hockenson to be the pick for some time now. He'd be the perfect compliment to what we've done in FA (smaller, speedy WR).

This said, I'm resigned to the fact we'll go DT and DE in rounds 1 & 2 with TE, a big WR, and a RB after thoughts until the later rounds.


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Don't forget they have Tyler Kroft, who is considered a better than average blocker, so the Billz can really go for it with a TE that may not be a "great" blocker. Go get Hock, be daring for once.

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I have wanted Hockenson to be the pick for some time now. He'd be the perfect compliment to what we've done in FA (smaller, speedy WR).

This said, I'm resigned to the fact we'll go DT and DE in rounds 1 & 2 with TE, a big WR, and a RB after thoughts until the later rounds.

 

Don’t be so sure of that. Beane and McD seem to really understand how important it is to have a top TE for the qb.

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Who gives a flying FUCK if the dude doesn’t go to the hall of fame? Can he catch? Yes...can he score points? Yes..Can he improve our shitty offense? Yes.....Can he help Josh Allen..YES.

 

What’s the odds of the 9th player picked, of any position, becoming All Pro? Some people are acting like we are picking TE with the first overall pick. Forward minded “experts” are all saying Hockenson should be picked around 8-10.

 

But the Bills are not...they are scared to be mocked at...they’ll play it safe...because that’s what they do.

 

Fair points. Do you view TE differently than RB? I killed the Giants for taking a RB second overall even though I'm Barkley fan #1. I'd puke if we took a RB at 9. But I think I'd be fine with a TE. Is that just because TEs are more associated with the passing game?

 

As much as I love the IDEA of Hockenson, I can't help but feel that if the Bills take him, it will end up like WRs in 2014...we get someone at the top of a deep class who winds up getting out-played by guys taken later.

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Fair points. Do you view TE differently than RB? I killed the Giants for taking a RB second overall even though I'm Barkley fan #1. I'd puke if we took a RB at 9. But I think I'd be fine with a TE. Is that just because TEs are more associated with the passing game?

 

As much as I love the IDEA of Hockenson, I can't help but feel that if the Bills take him, it will end up like WRs in 2014...we get someone at the top of a deep class who winds up getting out-played by guys taken later.

 

That’s going to depend on what you want from your TE, Fant is going to put up big numbers, but I think he’ll struggle to get on the field a lot with a team like Buffalo where Running is prioritized. Blocking is a big part of being a TE, to me the choice is Hock or Irv

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Good post. Listen...Hock is a complete TE. He can catch, block, and is a prototype. By getting him, we would have our big target over the middle for Allen to fall back on. We could get someone like Wilkins or Lawrence at the back of the first round if they slip. Beane has said that he would move up to get a guy that slips.

 

So Hockenson is the pick!


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Fair points. Do you view TE differently than RB? I killed the Giants for taking a RB second overall even though I'm Barkley fan #1. I'd puke if we took a RB at 9. But I think I'd be fine with a TE. Is that just because TEs are more associated with the passing game?

 

As much as I love the IDEA of Hockenson, I can't help but feel that if the Bills take him, it will end up like WRs in 2014...we get someone at the top of a deep class who winds up getting out-played by guys taken later.

 

Kelce was a 3rd round pick. Just saying.


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So how did the Chiefs get him in the 3rd round?

 

He was not considered an elite TE coming out of college. He had POTENTIAL though.

 

Who is like Kelce in this draft? Is it Dawson Knox?

 

TEs tend to be drafted lower, but I think that trend will shift if enough of them start making impact. Anyone would give up a first rounder for Kelce now. With the smaller LB trend, TEs are going to be able to have a big impact in the run game and still release and take huge chunks of yards over the middle. I’d rather have the blocking type vs big WR.

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TEs tend to be drafted lower, but I think that trend will shift if enough of them start making impact. Anyone would give up a first rounder for Kelce now. With the smaller LB trend, TEs are going to be able to have a big impact in the run game and still release and take huge chunks of yards over the middle. I’d rather have the blocking type vs big WR.

 

Don't forget Kelco had ZERO catches as a rookie (also he was 24 yrs old). ZERO. He got hurt and went on IR.

 

Wouldn't that suck.


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“Can he improve our shitty offense?”

 

That’s the ONLY question Beane and McDermott should be asking themselves right now!!!

 

This offense needs more playmakers around Josh Allen.

 

They went all out for OL in free agency.

 

People are already worrying about the DE position NEXT YEAR when we have no reason to not pick up Shaq’s option and then we got him for another 2 years with the franchise tag if we want it. We’re also getting a healthy Trent Murphy back to help out.

 

WR can be taken care of in mid rounds.

 

And the 3 DTs atop the depth chart should make us feel comfortable.

 

The only thing I’m not comfortable with right now: Tyler Kroft and Jason Croom

 

Well said, agreed.

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Kelce was a 3rd round pick. Just saying.

 

Yeah. Thanks. So we'll just draft an all pro in the 3rd round...it's easy, right? If that draft was redone, he'd be a top 10 pick.

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Yeah. Thanks. So we'll just draft an all pro in the 3rd round...it's easy, right? If that draft was redone, he'd be a top 10 pick.

 

You are right, if there was a redraft he would be a 1st rounder. So would Gronk. Zack Ertz maybe too?

 

The question is....... why did teams not realize Kelce was a 1st rounder? Why was he drafted in the 3rd round? I think the answer is you never know if a tight end will transition to the NFL and become a star. Plenty of 1st round draft TEs. Why didn't they pan out? Because it is really hard to project.

 

Someone could draft TJ Hockenson and he doesn't become All Pro in the NFL. Or, he might have a slow path to success like Eric Ebron. Eric Ebron was highly touted coming out of college. He was a slam dunk superstar! Yet, it took him several years to finally hit his stride. Why did it take him so long? IDK.


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Actually, I'd like to see them groom Croom(partly because I like saying that). He was the only Bills TE to have a TD last season...even had 2 catches in his first NFL game vs the Ravens.

 

That said, I think Hock might be worth the gamble, especially if we could get trade back. I'd love to trade back, then trade back up the 2nd or into the first to get the DT or whomever if we went with.

 

My darkhorse at TE is the guy from SDSU.

 

As for "busts" the latest Ed Oliver thread on here warns us about him, too....just like big Jonah earlier.... It seems like many of the names bandied about here later have articles written about them being risky.

 

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You are right, if there was a redraft he would be a 1st rounder. So would Gronk. Zack Ertz maybe too?

 

The question is....... why did teams not realize Kelce was a 1st rounder? Why was he drafted in the 3rd round? I think the answer is you never know if a tight end will transition to the NFL and become a star. Plenty of 1st round draft TEs. Why didn't they pan out? Because it is really hard to project.

 

Someone could draft TJ Hockenson and he doesn't become All Pro in the NFL. Or, he might have a slow path to success like Eric Ebron. Eric Ebron was highly touted coming out of college. He was a slam dunk superstar! Yet, it took him several years to finally hit his stride. Why did it take him so long? IDK.

 

If you could look back, I was pounding my fist on the table over Ebron, he had/has zero elite traits. He’s not particularly big, fast, athletic, ok hands, ok blocking and had little experience. He had bust written all over him and it came to fruition. “Scouts” should have lost their jobs over him. The way I see it, if I as a slightly more than average fan, can look at a guy and go, wtf are you talking about? Then scouts ought to see it. The reason he finally made progress is Luck. That’s it.

 

Hockenson has traits and has the tape to back it up. I’m not saying he’s a lock, but he’s damn sure worth a gamble on. Fant, really could be a great receiver, but his blocking is horrific and will get exposed more at the pro level. Irv Smith looks like Jared Cook to me, that’s not great, but it’s good, would love him in the 3rd, but he’ll be over drafted based on flashes.

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If you could look back, I was pounding my fist on the table over Ebron, he had/has zero elite traits. He’s not particularly big, fast, athletic, ok hands, ok blocking and had little experience. He had bust written all over him and it came to fruition. “Scouts” should have lost their jobs over him. The way I see it, if I as a slightly more than average fan, can look at a guy and go, wtf are you talking about? Then scouts ought to see it. The reason he finally made progress is Luck. That’s it.

 

Hockenson has traits and has the tape to back it up. I’m not saying he’s a lock, but he’s damn sure worth a gamble on. Fant, really could be a great receiver, but his blocking is horrific and will get exposed more at the pro level. Irv Smith looks like Jared Cook to me, that’s not great, but it’s good, would love him in the 3rd, but he’ll be over drafted based on flashes.

 

Great observations on Noah Fant (lack of blocking skills) and Irv Smith (decent but not elite).

 

I think Fant's reputation for not being a great blocker is why the Bills brought him in for both a Pre-Draft Visit to Buffalo AND did a private workout with him at Iowa. I think they were looking to determine if he has the ability to become a good blocker at the NFL level. Hopefully they know one way or the other now.


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